2014 maintenance talks

[Jager]

Substitute "pilots" for (mechanics) and it's seems like a more realistic quote.

 

[dfw gen]

http://www.iam141.org/docs/110614.pdf

twu has not named anyone because they have no intention of working with the iam. So again membership pays the price of a stupid agreement by the twu

 

[bigjets]

Twu probably doesn't want line mechs negotiating their own contract

 

[MetalMover]

Twu probably doesn't want line mechs negotiating their own contract

 
Why would that be?

 

[Bob Owens]

The only one lying is you Bob:
 
 
http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/57325-twu-and-iam-representation-alliance-vote/page-120#entry1124035
 
You do realize that WN has almost 700 planes and only does four lines of check?
 
From WN's Annual Report:
 
 
From the AA/US 10K:
 
 
 
PMUS has about the fleet size of about half of WN and has more maintenance personnel.
 
PMAA has about what 11,000 Maintenance personnel for around 630 planes.
 
So the combined AA and US has over 13,000 maintenance personnel for around 1000 planes.
 
WN has about 2,700 maintenance personnel for about 680 planes.
 
Do the math, if you took WN's CBA if you arent in the top say 4,000 you wont have a job.
 
So you will see about 10,000 jobs lost.
 
Dont let the facts get in your way.

So if we look at those numbers has there been much change over the last 30 years? You just keep ignoring the fact that SWA always had fewer mechanics than we did, even when they were paid less than us.  If what you are saying is true then we always would have been paid less than them, but we weren't. According to your circular reasoning Eagle should have 30 mechanics per airplane because they make even less than we do.
 
AA has 7628 Title I Mechanics and 1620 Title II mechanics for a total of 9248, or roughly half of what was claimed in 2004. Looks like we already lost around 2000 jobs just by taking about it.
 
So if pay has an inverse relationship to the number of mechanics employed and we already lost half the jobs why are we earning less than ever? 

 

[Bob Owens]

 
Layoffs at other carriers have swelled the labor pool with experienced mechanics, said Charles Craver, a labor law expert George Washington University.
 
"The (mechanics) in particular have just had delusions of grandeur," he said. "They think they're irreplaceable, and they're not."

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/travel/news/2005-11-02-northwest-strike_x.htm
 

That was then, thats not now. The pendulum has swung. 

 

[Bob Owens]

Job Outlook

 
Employment of aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians is projected to show little or no change from 2012 to 2022.
 
Air traffic is expected to gradually increase over the coming decade. However, new aircraft are generally expected to require less maintenance than older aircraft. Airlines may continue to outsource maintenance work to specialized maintenance and repair shops both domestically and abroad. Increased specialization will allow maintenance facilities to use their resources more efficiently and therefore limit growth in the number of aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians.

 
Job Prospects

 
Competition for aircraft and avionics equipment mechanic and technician jobs varies according to the type of job sought. In general, job opportunities will be best for mechanics who hold an A&P certificate and have knowledge about the most cutting edge technologies and composite materials. Familiarity with computers and digital systems will help provide the best opportunities.
Bachelor’s degree holders typically have an advantage when trying to enter the occupation and may find it easier to advance.

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/Installation-Maintenance-and-Repair/Aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm#tab-6

Growth would be nice, but what the carriers are facing is an inability to maintain what they have .

 

[Bob Owens]

Job Outlook

 
Employment of aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians is projected to show little or no change from 2012 to 2022.
 
Air traffic is expected to gradually increase over the coming decade. However, new aircraft are generally expected to require less maintenance than older aircraft. Airlines may continue to outsource maintenance work to specialized maintenance and repair shops both domestically and abroad. Increased specialization will allow maintenance facilities to use their resources more efficiently and therefore limit growth in the number of aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians.

 
Job Prospects

 
Competition for aircraft and avionics equipment mechanic and technician jobs varies according to the type of job sought. In general, job opportunities will be best for mechanics who hold an A&P certificate and have knowledge about the most cutting edge technologies and composite materials. Familiarity with computers and digital systems will help provide the best opportunities.
Bachelor’s degree holders typically have an advantage when trying to enter the occupation and may find it easier to advance.

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/Installation-Maintenance-and-Repair/Aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm#tab-6

Commercial Airline Pilots
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/airline-and-commercial-pilots.htm
 
Job Outlook
 
Employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to show little or no change from 2012 to 2022. Low-cost regional airlines and nonscheduled aviation services will provide the most job opportunities. Pilots seeking jobs at the major airlines will face strong competition.
 
 
Flight Attendants 
 
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/flight-attendants.htm
 
Job Outlook
 
Employment of flight attendants is projected to decline 7 percent from 2012 to 2022. Job prospects should be best for applicants with a college degree.
 
So compared to those groups the mechanics look like they are in better shape. Found something else, for some reason they separate overhaul/manufacturing from the Airlines but they expect that to need 105,000 new aircraft mechanics between 2012 and 2022. Currently they show around 160,000.  They FAA is only issuing out around 3500 A&Ps per year from the schools but on average the BLS is projecting the industry will be losing 10,000/year. 
 
Looking at the numbers they are talking about whether they think their will be growth as far as numbers, not growth in wages or demand. The total number of pilots employed is projected to drop a couple of thousand but the expectation is they will need nearly double the amount of pilots currently employed to replace those who leave over the 2012-2022 period. So just reading what you put out doesn't come close to telling the whole story, even with negative overall growth Pilots are in a very good position to make large gains. 

 

[Bob Owens]

The median annual wage for aircraft mechanics and service technicians was $55,210 in May 2012. The median wage is the wage at which half the workers in an occupation earned more than that amount and half earned less. The lowest 10 percent of aircraft mechanics earned less than $35,190, and the top 10 percent earned more than $76,660.

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/Installation-Maintenance-and-Repair/Aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm#tab-5

Are BLS reports brain washed, fear mongering kool aid too?

Problem is those figures count the guys working in General Aviation in places like Nebraska or Alabama. Pilots are segregated as Commercial Airline Pilots. 

 

[Bob Owens]

 much worse the negotiations are kept secret to prevent this truth from being exposed.
 

Well at one time it was kept secret. Thanks to the Internet its not anymore. 

 

[OldGuy@AA]

Problem is those figures count the guys working in General Aviation in places like Nebraska or Alabama. Pilots are segregated as Commercial Airline Pilots. 

If we're gonna account for general aviation for A&P mechanics are we gonna use grocery store baggers to lower FSC wages?  They load bags right?  Just ignore these guys.  

 

[WeAAsles]

HAPPY NEW YEAR, PEACE

 

[Bob Owens]

If we're gonna account for general aviation for A&P mechanics are we gonna use grocery store baggers to lower FSC wages?  They load bags right?  Just ignore these guys.  

Another factor that a lot of these things leave out is Mechanics often work in places that pay subpar compensation with the sole aim of getting experience to get a good job, like Doctors and Pilots do. Basically the bottom payers are internships. Thats why Envoy Pilots agreed to a 10 year deal, none of them expect to be there in 10 years, they expect to get their hours in and move on. The problem is the company, and like minded mouthpieces pretending to be Union, then throw out what they agreed to as a model of what guys who have reached the higher levels of the industry should agree to. If things every where were like they were at the Envoys, MROs and start ups most of us never would have even considered entering this industry.