AAL Downgrades and 1Q20 Earnings

Discussion in 'American Airlines' started by eolesen, Apr 28, 2020.

  1. UPNAWAY

    UPNAWAY Veteran

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    Agree, there was no run on meat until the media ran stories for a solid week that there would be a run on meat! Someone on another thread said 80% of the worlds problems go away if the media was deemed non essential. I tend to agree, they are like politicians,and have long since passed the point of doing more harm to society than good.
     
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  2. dfw gen

    dfw gen Veteran

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    the funny thing is that passengers hate the mod hate the lack of room. you would think that with social distancing and the lack of bookings they would be removing seats to try and make the travel "experience" tolerable instead of miserable. as business comes back they will be fighting for every booking with this mod personally if i were a passenger i would be looking around a little more for a more tolerable travel experience.
     
  3. jimntx

    jimntx Veteran

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    #63 jimntx, May 5, 2020
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
    How has AA managed to survive without your blinding intellect running the show? Whatever you say captain.
    I would like for you to show me where I said anything about AA going into bankruptcy in August. Specific references to dates, please. None of your interpretation of what you think I posted. Well, think may be too strong a word. How about "your interpretation of what you imagine I posted." Your do seem to have a talent for interpreting what people say even if they don't say it.
     
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  4. eolesen

    eolesen Veteran

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    #64 eolesen, May 5, 2020
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
    Yeah, Caption Obvious seems to be taking anyone saying "potential for BK" as being within the next 30-60-90 days. This is cancer, not heart failure.

    Those who follow bankruptcies know there are a couple of triggers -- that next big round of debt is coming due, or credit card companies and banks move on them for not having enough cash on hand.

    AA's 1Q20 filing says no "large non-aircraft debt maturities for 24 months" aside from a $1B revolver due in 1Q21. Left unsaid is what their aircraft related debt maturities will be, but debt load won't be the trigger for an immediate bankruptcy. It might be in 2021, though.

    The bigger concern has to be cash flow, and there's no question that seems to be drying up.

    For those noting that bookings seem to be up, take that with a grain of salt. A lot of those "new" bookings are using up credits from flights canceled over the past 90 days. It's reducing air travel liability, but it's not necessarily generating new cash.
     
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  5. robbedagain

    robbedagain Veteran

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    E. Youre probably right in regards to pax traveling near free using points or whatever. The bigger question is will the feds do another bailout type similar to this for the fall/ winter when travel is usually slower? On side note UAL has been painting a very very dire situation. Itll be all interesting to see what will occur over nxt several months. Stay. Safe. Stay healthy. Best of luck to all
     
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  6. CremaDiLimone

    CremaDiLimone Veteran

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    again, jim..sorry. me and others were talking about the immediate short term. we talked about the cares act, prior to it's enactment and acceptance.

    it's must have caught your attention that others were talking about what the govt. (trump-pence and mnuchin) clearly stated in regards to the cares act, that you decided to argue points that were/are not relevant to what was discussed. when you deny what the govt. has stated, deny what the airlines accepted and deny what has occurred, the word delusional comes to mind.

    we said that the govt. claimed that the airline industry can't/won't fail, due to national security interests. i have news for you jim, yes, aa has debt, so does delta and united and others. if aa fails in may, delta fails in june. the govt. interceded. the govt. realized that ALL airlines were in immediate jeopardy.

    obviously, just to be argumentative, you and the CEO of the imaginary inter-galactic LLC..decided to tell us that no one airline is above economic failure..giving pan am of 90-91 as the example.

    that was not debated. what was discussed was the immediate future. aa is not immune in 2027 or 3427. that was never stated.

    so, i'd say you are the one putting word in others' mouths to to win an argument that was already settled.

    going forward, anything can be debated and theories put out about what happens in aug and sept if pax aren't flying.
     
  7. CremaDiLimone

    CremaDiLimone Veteran

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    here jim.

    you called me naive, then state in the last paragraph that it could be 'possible' that mnuchin saves dl, ua, southwest...but not aa.

    sorry, you were wrong and maybe i wasn't that naive.
     
  8. CremaDiLimone

    CremaDiLimone Veteran

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    right. pan am. right, delta has zero debt and $18 billion socked away to ride the storm out and will not only refuse more govt. money (if available), but lobby against it.

    i quoted what trump, pence and mnuchin said. you either thought i was making that all up or incredulous to the fact that someone else besides you has an opinion.

    right jimbo. delta, united and southwest have zero collective debt and $40 billion in the bank to reject further potential govt. aid.

    haven't they strangled aa yet? no?? maybe next month? august??
     
  9. ALUS78

    ALUS78 Veteran

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    #69 ALUS78, May 6, 2020
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
    I'm looking at it as people are willing to fly whether they are using their points or not. They might be slowly coming back.Remember there is really nothing to fly to. ( literally zero tourism and business travel) When the country opens up we'll see
     
  10. ALUS78

    ALUS78 Veteran

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    Yeah to me they seem to be gloating a bit.
     
  11. robbedagain

    robbedagain Veteran

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    I hope ur right in the fact they may be slowly coming back.
     
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  12. eolesen

    eolesen Veteran

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    Gloating? Both Jim and I have pensions with AA, and I'd like to make sure it keeps coming without dealing with the PBGC. I've got dozens of friends who still work there.

    No, I don't want AA to fail.

    That said, the current management team has destroyed everything AA used to stand for, so the only thing that's the same is the name on the pension check.

    The sad part is AA's unions recruited Parker in what was probably one of the most short-sighted moves ever. The previous team had issues, but they certainly understood finance and long term planning.

    No, it's not gloating. I'm actually mourning what y'all did to what used to be my airline.
     
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  13. swamt

    swamt Veteran

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    Unless you mean all 3 combined, that could be. But SWA does not have 40 billion in the bank. Last update from CEO put us right at 13 billion expected to grow to 15 billion shortly and wanting to add another 12 billion in total by years end. Currently stated they have enough to run as is for another year at current burn rate 900 million per month and dropping by half that before end of year.
     
  14. CremaDiLimone

    CremaDiLimone Veteran

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    what are they gloating about?

    me and others were talking about the cares act and what that meant between the potential acceptance, the reason(s) behind the cares act and a time frame until the end of sept. 2020.

    instead, they bring up pan am and no one airline is immune to bk/liquidation. the federal government had just said they were willing to step in and see that no commercial airline fail (if they accept funds and terms) between now and end of sept. 2020.

    wtf is so hard about understanding and accepting that?? gloating? they appear to be cheering for a premature aa bk to prove their all knowing airline knowledge.

    they mocked our hypothesis, it was suggested that the govt. will save some airlines and allow aa to fail. it was then suggested that some airlines will be healthy enough by sept. to refuse further aid from the govt. and then lobby against further govt. aid for other airlines. that couldn't be further from reality.

    sorry, i had to do this..not because we/i was correct, but because they won't let go and insist we were actually wrong.
     
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  15. eolesen

    eolesen Veteran

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    Yep. You were right about the CARES funding. Nobody argued that. You’re the only one focused on that.

    The rest of us have been talking about October and beyond. Why? Because that’s what matters.
     
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