American looking to "right-size" the company and staffing levels for the Fall and 2021

[V.O. Reason]

So, How are outside investors looking at AA?....... Interesting article. Your thoughts?
Bankruptcy Risks Mount for Embattled American Airlines
https://investorplace.com/2020/07/a...AgXuHXCxvh4UbvK8xlcCrtmmgtyBKwMvHUORQtYng0JtM

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.
AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers and he misstates about the cash burn in that it was only around 30 million in June.
They have no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year in a half and thus guy also speaks of older aircraft retirements, a yeah I think AA has already done that for several types.
I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.
These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.
These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

 

[Insp4]

I think I'm gonna be sick!
Back in the Spring when the powers that be were predicting that 1 of the majors could go under before airline finances (in general) settled down. At the time I was sure that United would be the line to go under. I clung to that thought because I couldn't imagine AA failing. My bad. I also ignored the debt level of AA. At this point I'm grateful that my financial advisor sold my AAL holding by mistake. I told her to sell the AAL stock when it reached $50/share, Since it never got above $40, she thought I said sell at $40 which she did.
Insp4, Thanks for posting the article. I've pulled a few quotes out of it that I think may be the Doomsday for AA.

Airline traffic is not returning to normal anytime soon.
However, the average daily cash burn rate in Q2 by AA was $55 million, the highest among its peer group. Delta Air Lines (NYSE AL) has brought down its cash burn to $27 million in June; United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) is burning $25 million per day as per the quarterly report.
The airline doesn’t have the cash to keep paying the debt in a prolonged slowdown. It’s looking more and more likely that it will have to file for Chapter 11 sometime in the future. None of its debt matures before 2022, but high-interest costs could force its hand.

There is nothing to suggest that operating low-income yielding hubs will lead to long-term profits or heightened morale. (Ya think?) I loved that quote.

I think the "outside investors" that are creating all the investment volume on AAL are the ones who buy at $11.10 and sell at $11.35 then brag about the profit percentage on the sale. I'm just glad that DP promised that AA will never lose money again. I mean, he wouldn't lie to us, would he?

Jim, I really don't take any pleasure in posting this! I have been there and it really isn't fun for anyone!....... Let's just hope and pray it doesn't happen, but it's also good to be prepared for it if it does! .......Just saying! I've got a vested interest in this also seeing I'm a AA retiree!...... On the plus side, I believe Idid hear there maybe more relief, $$$, coming for the Airlines, from Trump and Company, but that would be subject to Palosi's blessing!

 

[Insp4]

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.
AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers and he misstates about the cash burn in that it was only around 30 million in June.
They have no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year in a half and thus guy also speaks of older aircraft retirements, a yeah I think AA has already done that for several types.
I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.
These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.
These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

Well fella, Let's hope you are right!...... But in times like these, it may be a good idea to be prepared for the worse, but hope for the best! Again, Just saying!

 

[jimntx]

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.
AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers and he misstates about the cash burn in that it was only around 30 million in June.
They have no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year in a half and thus guy also speaks of older aircraft retirements, a yeah I think AA has already done that for several types.
I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.
These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.
These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

Daddy must have money and you are working for fun. Us pore folks don't write sentences that include the phrase "only" $30 million." BTW, the $50 million daily cash burn figure came from AA's quarterly reports. Are you saying that AA is cooking the books? That's a pretty serious charge to make.
Having no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year and a half can be a good thing if it means that all of your current cash is yours for the using as you see fit. However, in this case you will have to assume that investors don't know how to realize the massive size of that "next year" debt, and we didn't save any to pay that debt. There is a financial reckoning coming for AA. I realize that they can "refinance" some or all of the debt, but what is that other than paying off debts by taking on additional debts. There is a point where our cash sources dry up because they don't see a way for the money owed to them to be repaid.

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Warn Letter with the list SEN #8755 11/17/2014

2005 team members from title I

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21...420d78c679ae6820385070f23f25&oe=5F257BDB&dl=1

 

[Rogallo]

I'm just glad that DP promised that AA will never lose money again.

"Profitable in good and bad times" Uh-oh!

Reality just jumped up and slapped olé Dougie right in the face.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/28/ame...hink-were-ever-going-to-lose-money-again.html

 

[jimntx]

Warn Letter with the list SEN #8755 11/17/2014

2005 team members from title I

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21...420d78c679ae6820385070f23f25&oe=5F257BDB&dl=1

I got one of those beauties in 2003. Furloughed 7/1/03. Recalled 11/17/04. Flight attendants did not have bumping privileges. I was furloughed from DFW. Recalled to STL (the best of the 3 bases I could select).

Good luck!

 

[ALUS78]

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.
AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers and he misstates about the cash burn in that it was only around 30 million in June.
They have no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year in a half and thus guy also speaks of older aircraft retirements, a yeah I think AA has already done that for several types.
I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.
These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.
These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

I dont understand Jim he seems like a nice man yet he seems to find pleasure in AA bad news.I read an article just yesterday that stated AA bankruptcy fears aren't warranted. I also dont know what Jim means by failing 11 or 7? I've seen enough in my years to know that AA could file 11 and fly around for years.All the airlines are in trouble, hell the country is in trouble.Ever think of the repercussions if 1 of the big 4 failed? What a dire state the country would be in? Boeing wouldn't get an order for ten years

 

[jimntx]

I dont understand Jim he seems like a nice man yet he seems to find pleasure in AA bad news.(Wrong! I take neither pleasure nor the opposite from bad news at AA. I look at the situation with an attitude of realism.)

"I read an article just yesterday that stated AA bankruptcy fears aren't warranted." (And, I read two articles that said if DP continues his current course, bankruptcy is inevitable. Simply ignoring a pile of debt is not dealing with the pile of debt.)

"I also dont know what Jim means by failing 11 or 7? "(Neither do I. Where did I use that phrase?)

"I've seen enough in my years to know that AA could file 11 and fly around for years." (Really? The company filed for bankruptcy protection in 2011, citing $24.7 in assets and $29.6 billon in debt. Yes they did continue flying, but they worked hard to reduce the debt load. We were in BK for 2 years. I would hardly call that "flying around "for years".)

"hell the country is in trouble.Ever think of the repercussions if 1 of the big 4 failed? " In the past 40 years, 26 airlines have failed including Braniff, Eastern,and Pan Am. As far as I can tell, the country survived all of those failures. It didn't and wouldn't take that much effort to restore service to any cities that lost it in a failure.

"What a dire state the country would be in?" The country is in dire straits, but not as a result of airlines.

"Boeing wouldn't get an order for ten years" What happens to Boeing is not really AA's concern is it? I don't much care for the Airbus product, but AA has substituted it in many cases--specifically to avoid dependence on a single aircraft manufacturer.

 

[Insp4]

I dont understand Jim he seems like a nice man yet he seems to find pleasure in AA bad news.I read an article just yesterday that stated AA bankruptcy fears aren't warranted. I also dont know what Jim means by failing 11 or 7? I've seen enough in my years to know that AA could file 11 and fly around for years.All the airlines are in trouble, hell the country is in trouble.Ever think of the repercussions if 1 of the big 4 failed? What a dire state the country would be in? Boeing wouldn't get an order for ten years

Got to say, you don't want to go through a Chap.11, and 7 is liquidation!

 

[swamt]

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.
AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers and he misstates about the cash burn in that it was only around 30 million in June.
They have no outstanding debt payouts for at least a year in a half and thus guy also speaks of older aircraft retirements, a yeah I think AA has already done that for several types.
I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.
These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.
These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

I beg to differ. AA is in, probably, the worst shape of all the main airlines right now. For several reasons. Debt, cost, balance sheet, maturing debt in 2022, overstaffed from the merger still and even with all the folks taking early outs and leaves. The only 3 airlines that have so far said no layoffs for the time being is SWA, Dalta, and JetBlue. All 3 got the numbers they needed on their packages and will hopefully continue going forward with no layoffs. I see both AA and maybe UAL both possibly laying off come Oct 1st unless another extension is passed. I also think AA will still need to reduce employees due to the merger even if the extension passes.
To say AA is in no worse shape than any other airline is telling me you are wearing blinders or just not willing to admit it so denying it to get thru.

Warn Letter with the list SEN #8755 11/17/2014

2005 team members from title I

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21...420d78c679ae6820385070f23f25&oe=5F257BDB&dl=1

So I counted 57 AMT's per page with 34 pages. This equates to 1938 AMT's on this warn list. Does this mean that all will be affected one way or another? Or is it an overcasted list? I hope not all on this list is getting layoff or rifs. What a punch in the gut.

 

[BigTex]

"So I counted 57 AMT's per page with 34 pages. This equates to 1938 AMT's on this warn list. Does this mean that all will be affected one way or another? Or is it an overcasted list? I hope not all on this list is getting layoff or rifs. What a punch in the gut"

Supposedly, AA sends out triple the amount of letters than actually needed to account for various scenarios. This all according to Dale Danker TWU 514

 

[Rogallo]

Supposedly, AA sends out triple the amount of letters than actually needed to account for various scenarios. This all according to Dale Danker TWU 514

The most likely scenario to happen is that they just screw it up.......like they've always done.

"We know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two"!

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

I think I'm gonna be sick!
Back in the Spring when the powers that be were predicting that 1 of the majors could go under before airline finances (in general) settled down. At the time I was sure that United would be the line to go under. I clung to that thought because I couldn't imagine AA failing. My bad. I also ignored the debt level of AA. At this point I'm grateful that my financial advisor sold my AAL holding by mistake. I told her to sell the AAL stock when it reached $50/share, Since it never got above $40, she thought I said sell at $40 which she did.
Insp4, Thanks for posting the article. I've pulled a few quotes out of it that I think may be the Doomsday for AA.

Airline traffic is not returning to normal anytime soon.
However, the average daily cash burn rate in Q2 by AA was $55 million, the highest among its peer group. Delta Air Lines (NYSE AL) has brought down its cash burn to $27 million in June; United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) is burning $25 million per day as per the quarterly report.
The airline doesn’t have the cash to keep paying the debt in a prolonged slowdown. It’s looking more and more likely that it will have to file for Chapter 11 sometime in the future. None of its debt matures before 2022, but high-interest costs could force its hand.

There is nothing to suggest that operating low-income yielding hubs will lead to long-term profits or heightened morale. (Ya think?) I loved that quote.

I think the "outside investors" that are creating all the investment volume on AAL are the ones who buy at $11.10 and sell at $11.35 then brag about the profit percentage on the sale. I'm just glad that DP promised that AA will never lose money again. I mean, he wouldn't lie to us, would he?

I tried to tell you (the Forums) all of this a month ago.

AA has a high debt load and a ton of 737's sitting around collecting dust.

I am glad the reality of the situation is finally settling in for some of you.

I would not panic but concern is absolutely justified.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

Bla bla bla, I’ve heard and read the doom and gloom for AA many times.

Of course you have. It makes money for the media.

AA is in no worse shape than any of the other carriers

You are deluding yourself. High debt load and a bunch of grounded aircraft put them in worse shape.

I’ve read others say AA position with newer aircraft is a positive over other airlines.

Except the 737's sitting on the ground.

These investors all have their opinions but not one of know exactly what will happen.

True.

These are unprecedented times and we are all going to have tough days ahead but these doom and gloom articles do nobody any good

Except the media making money off internet traffic.