Mergers, elections, and negotiations
Mergers:
With the Passenger service election set at AMR for the CWA, I find it unlikely that AMR management would announce a merger prior to the results of the PAX service election. So anyone expecting a merger agreement might be a bit bummed. As far as the merger, any US AIRWAYS employee on the ramp should hope that US AIRWAYS is the one doing the buying. The AMR TWU contract gives sacredity to AMR rampers which would most likely force our union to trigger MBA. IMO, based on recent cases, the MBA would rule in favor of the AMR contract if AMR did the buying, but the favorable ruling might only mean the gain of an extra year or two for AMR rampers at non hubs. Not in any case would there be another TWA bloodbath. Regarding former TWA members, it is highly unlikely that any arbitrator would 'undo' previous seniority policies....but if so, then I would hope everyone could finally go by date of hire. Who knows?
Union Elections: IMO, the CWA ought to win the PAX service election at AMR since there is much uncertainty for employees going through mergers. As far as the MX group: IBT seems to have the edge at AMR as the TWU is a 'deal breaker' for many of the mx over there. The IBT will force an election prior to any representational disputes triggered after a single certificate. AMFA is in play also but IMHO it will finish second with the TWU a distant third. Actually, the TWU seems to have given the IBT soft support from what I can make out of their organizing drives. MX US AIRWAYS is solidly in IAM camp. The IBT's flirtation on US AIRWAYS property isn't taking off as it is at AMR. At any rate, if the IBT gets AMR and has some support at US AIRWAYS MX then the IBT's gambit to pick up all 12,000 MX may pay off.
AMR/US AIRWAYS fleet: Seniority will control this election, imo. The TWU's lack of accountability and dictatorship, imo, is a deal breaker for US AIRWAYS rampers. US AIRWAYS rampers aren't too thrilled with the IAM who always seems to have the concession stand open but at least the IAM constitution provides them voting powers to express their wants. OTOH, the vast majority of TWU members at AMR appear to hate the TWU. Those that I talk to say the union actually sucks. However, it's all about seniority and although there are some in ORD who are open to the IAM and would willingly sign an IAM card, most are going to pack together with the TWU based solely on seniority. DFW is strongly in TWU camp. MIA and ORD are more open based on the conversations I have had with some key folks who helped me try to oust the TWU at AMR 5 years ago. IMO, any election will be too close to call and if it's close I believe that will favor the IAM. The IBT has made inquiries into the ramp at US AIRWAYS and has circled this group at both airlines if it is successful with the MX first. IMO, I find any IBT involvement unlikely at this time.
United Ramp: IBT is set to commence a organizing campaign at United ramp in early spring, presumably March 1. They are anticipating the IAM leadership to fall far short on the promises in a presumed TA to be signed prior to March 1. If the IAM leadership does not finish and fails, then it will nonetheless still proceed with an organizing drive as the IBT feelers recognize that the IAM is losing support. The IBT already has over 3,000 cards in a soft campaign presently. However, it will need 5,000 more which, IMO, is a tall order.
With all the Right to Work laws coming into place, the airline/railway industry is the place to work at if one wants a labor agent representing them. Likewise, unions will be scrambling to increase their numbers in this industry since it is incredibly likely that they will lose members in such powerhouse labor states as Indiana and Michigan. And now with Ohio flirting with RTW this may be a total blow to labor as we know it.
Negotiations:
US AIRWAYS: Each update has said progress. Nothing could be further than the truth. All they have talked about is safety and some general tidbits. Nothing against the negotiation team but I don't believe management will move on any items until it knows any merger outcomes. If, there is a merger, then our hope should be that the IAM leadership doesn't take the same destructive path that it took on United when it conceeded the scope and United negotiation for a promise that backfired.
United: At this time, The IAM is the only bargaining agent that has not received anything over 4 years. Although each update over 4 years spoke of progress and "We are just this close", nothing has materialized due to the leverage lost during negotiations.
US AIRWAYS members need to watch closely on how your IAM leadership continues to mishandle the United talks and then review any T/A that may be signed. One thing is for sure, the strategy employed by the IAM leadership at United necessarily means the US AIRWAYS ramp will not see any contract for at least 5 years if there is a merger.
regards,