DL expands SEA further with SEA-SFO flights

Status
Not open for further replies.
In less than 10 years, AA has gone from being the largest airline on the NYC side of NY to half the size of DL.  Whatever you want to call it is fine, but AA is cancelling a new market about every month and its share continues to fall.
 
The codesharing that exists as part of the AS-DL relationship is part of a long-term contract that requires performance from both sides.
 
No one has yet to say why DL should allow AS out of any part of the contract when DL can and has proven its ability to grow despite what AS does.
 
The money that DL is spending to develop new routes from SEA across the Pacific goes a long ways toward what they would have to spend to build gates.  DL made the decision a long time ago that they were building SEA; gates are just part of the process but the chances of DL deciding they aren't willing to pay the price any longer rank somewhere between a round trip ticket to fantasy land (and that is not a part of a Disney park) and hades.
 
DL's published schedule thru Sept. 2014 requires close to 20 gates to run efficiently.  There are undoubtedly more flights they would like to add but DL is a lot closer to filling a 25-30 gate facility than you might think. 
 
Interesting that you want to trot out the reliance on regional carriers now, E. but you do realize that DL is the most aggressive US carrier in reducing dependence on regional carriers and converting it to mainline service, don't you?
 
DL may be adding new regional carrier flights on the west coast but they are reducing overall RJ flying on the eastern part of its system.  DL has a limit on the number of large RJs it can operate, is parking hundreds of small RJs, and is still growing on the west coast, so there will be a shift in the location of where RJs operate on DL's system but the overall trend is towards LESS, NOT MORE, RJ service on DL's network.
 
You also missed or don't want to acknowledge that DL announced 7 or 8 flights/day on large RJs between LAX-SEA after operating several mainline flights/day last year.  Now, DL's schedule for this summer on the same route is for more mainline capacity than DL has operated in years - long before the SEA hub became an issue - and DL has reduced the number of large RJs.
That is exactly the principle that will play out across the western part of DL's system.  Flights will begin or frequency will be added with large RJs only to be quickly upgraded to mainline flights where it can be.  DL's LAX-SFO service is a very high candidate for becoming 717 service which frees up about 4-5 large RJs alone. 
 
The large RJs are for growth routes to DL's network using two cabin aircraft.  Many of those routes will become mainline aircraft - LAX-SEA, one of the largest large RJ markets - is already proving the principle. 
 
Tell me what AA and UA's trend regarding regional carriers vs alliances vs. domestic partners is. 
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
eolesen said:
Yes, AA is running away. Keep repeating that.
 
Well, consider the source.  If Delta is poised to "win" in the Metroplex, then AA has already more than "won" in NYC.
 
AA (including US), which in 2013* carried 66% of the passengers in and out of the NYC metro as the market leader, United, and 78% of the passengers as the market's #2 (i.e., non-leader), Delta, is obviously doomed to fail.  Delta, on the other hand, capturing a whopping 5% of the traffic in the DFW metro market as market leader AA, and 31% of the traffic as market #2 Southwest, "will win in N. Texas just as they have in ATL and NYC against AA and WN."  And lest we forget, in the NYC metro that AA has allegedly already "lost" to Delta, the #1 carrier - again, not Delta - had a market share of less than 25%, while AA's was less than 9 points behind at over 16% (separation between AA and Delta: less than 5 percentage points).  Meanwhile, in "N. Texas," which Delta will conquer next, the #1 carrier AA has a market share of just under 75% while Delta's is less than 4% (separation between AA and Delta: over 71 percentage points).
 
Sigh.
 
*Yes, I of course know AA's overall traffic in the NYC region will fall somewhat compared to 2014 as it divests LGA slots, but the bottom line is still the same.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 people
sometimes you come up with some really good posts, comm, but this one is just unbelievable in your attempt to throw statistics out that are so far out of the field of reality.
 
First, let's make clear ONE MORE TIME that no one cares how much any carrier BOARDS in passengers at any airport when considering the strength of that carrier in that LOCAL MARKET. 
 
DL boards far more passengers from ATL than any carrier but no one in their right mind would say that DL's market share is based on the total number of passengers boarded regardless of whether they are passing thru or boarding locally but rather on the passengers who actually have that airport or set of airports as its destination or origin.
 
Based on the latest DOT data, DL, not UA, is the largest carrier to/from LGA/JFK/EWR of LOCAL NYC passengers with 25.2% of the market.  UA is next at 24.6%, B6 is next at 17.7%, and AA alone is 13.8.  US follows at 6.5% but yes you have to take out a fair number of those passengers as part of the slot divestiture. 
 
At DFW/DAL, it is AA with 49.7% (that is not even a majority), WN with 18%, NK with 7.7%, and DL with 7.2.  However, because DL's average fare is higher than any carrier above it in the ranking despite operating no int'l flights from DFW, DL's revenue share is 8.3% while NK's is 3.3% and WN is at 11.5%.
 
AA is hardly the blowout in the metroplex nor does DL fare terribly poorly in terms of revenue in comparison esp. to carriers in the local market who have far larger operations.
 
IN ATL, DL carries 66.5% of the local market compared to 15.2% of the local market compared to just under 10% for AA/US. looking at revenue share, DL's in ATL is actually 70%, one of the highest for any carrier in a hub.
 
 
There is no AA/US hub that generates revenue premiums as high as DL gets at ATL.
 
So, no, AA/US hasn't won and is more exposed to revenue dilution in the coming months as a result of divestiture than any other carrier is in their hubs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
you seem to care so much about the local market esp in the N TX area 
 
no kidding  may be its due to the fact ATL is their home base
 
again  youre the one whose clearly worried about the local but in the earlier paragraph you claim no one cares about that
 
might want to recheck the stats on the aa/us hubs generating prem as high
 
no, robbed,
the appropriate measure to show how strong a carrier is in a city is the number of local boardings... just as it would be to show the percentage of calls that a phone company handles that originate/terminate at a city and not the number of calls that "pass thru" the fiber network that carrier has built that is used to carry calls that are just being relayed thru that city.
 
Is it really that difficult for you and others to comprehend that no one cares how many passengers or calls pass thru a city but are only changing planes/being redirected to another fiber optic wire?  No one cares how many times a passenger boards an aircraft between their origin and destination anymore than anyone cares how many fiberoptic lines a call is routed thru to get to the final destination.
 
No one prices based on the number of flights boarded but by the origin and destination.  How an airline ROUTES that passenger and how many planes they take is immaterial to the revenue collected. 
 
And if you really want to use passengers boarded instead of local share, do you realize that AA's share in ATL goes from about 10% down to half that number and that DL will nearly always beat any US network carrier because DL carries a higher percentage of passengers from its hubs than AA or UA and DL carries a higher percentage of connecting passengers than other carriers.
 
Or you can grasp that airlines care about local boardings - and the same principle applies to AA in DFW or ATL or LGA and the same for every carrier in every city.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
eolesen said:
Yes, AA is running away. Keep repeating that. You and WT will be just fine.
 
uh.....I'm sorry, so basically you don't have a good response and just lump me in with WT? Please point out just how I am wrong and/or major markets that Delta doesn't have flights to from LGA/JFK and AA does?
 
I don't believe i said AA is going to up and leave NYC, but i believe they are going to be a happy number three, and redirect some traffic via other hubs, mainly PHL. 
 
 
commavia said:
 
Well, consider the source.  If Delta is poised to "win" in the Metroplex, then AA has already more than "won" in NYC.
 
AA (including US), which in 2013* carried 66% of the passengers in and out of the NYC metro as the market leader, United, and 78% of the passengers as the market's #2 (i.e., non-leader), Delta, is obviously doomed to fail.  Delta, on the other hand, capturing a whopping 5% of the traffic in the DFW metro market as market leader AA, and 31% of the traffic as market #2 Southwest, "will win in N. Texas just as they have in ATL and NYC against AA and WN."  And lest we forget, in the NYC metro that AA has allegedly already "lost" to Delta, the #1 carrier - again, not Delta - had a market share of less than 25%, while AA's was less than 9 points behind at over 16% (separation between AA and Delta: less than 5 percentage points).  Meanwhile, in "N. Texas," which Delta will conquer next, the #1 carrier AA has a market share of just under 75% while Delta's is less than 4% (separation between AA and Delta: over 71 percentage points).
 
Sigh.
 
*Yes, I of course know AA's overall traffic in the NYC region will fall somewhat compared to 2014 as it divests LGA slots, but the bottom line is still the same.
ahem, note.....I'm not even saying a word about Dallas. WT is on his own on that one. 
 
topDawg said:
I don't believe i said AA is going to up and leave NYC, but i believe they are going to be a happy number three, and redirect some traffic via other hubs, mainly PHL. 
 
I completely agree.  AA will be #3 in NYC, and is likely just fine with that.  AA can optimize its huge LGA/JFK slot portfolio for O&D, shifting more and more of the connections over PHL - i.e., there's no need to "waste" peak JFK slots flying 50-seat RJs 1-2 times per day to CVG, IND, CLE, BNA, etc. when those international connections can be handled over PHL.  If you can't have EWR, which is without question the single best hub in the northeastern U.S. because of its geography, demography and economics, PHL is the clear "silver medal."  PHL is the only other omni-directional, all-day, domestic-and-international megahub in the northeast besides EWR.  While PHL caters to a local market substantially smaller than NYC (and every U.S. market is substantially smaller than NYC), it has a single airport that dominates the region's traffic, and AA will dominate said airport with no meaningful competition.  That's a stark contrast from NYC in general, and LGA/JFK in particular, which not only split traffic among multiple huge local airports, but also have intense competition among multiple carriers.
 
Now that AA has a true megahub in the northeast, unlike before, I suspect AA is more than happy to let Delta, JetBlue and United fight it out for dominance in NYC and AA can hang back somewhat and focus on what it does best in the market.
 
topDawg said:
ahem, note.....I'm not even saying a word about Dallas. WT is on his own on that one. 
 
Indeed.  My earlier comment was not directed at you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
topDawg said:
Please point out ... major markets that Delta doesn't have flights to from LGA/JFK and AA does?
The point isn't what markets AA is serving that DL isn't. It's similar to what commavia just stated -- AA can cherry pick the markets they can serve well. They don't need to match every market. They just have to match the ones with enough value attached to them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 people
of course they don't.. no carrier needs to serve everything.  But there is clear evidence that a carrier in a hub almost always has a revenue premium over other carriers on comparable routes.
 
AA simply cannot compete in NYC against DL and UA who have much larger hubs and also against B6 who has managed to push AA out of a number of markets.
 
AA's future in the NE is in PHL, not NYC as much as some here want to try to believe otherwise.
 
If nothing else, the congestion in the CTB at LGA with all of the new flights there will ensure that no self-respecting passenger will endure that goat rodeo.
 
I have little doubt that AA can compete in NYC -- you don't have to be the largest in a market for it to be profitable.

You've made that argument time and time again in your discussions of DL & DFW.
 
except that US brings very little to NYC that AA hasn't already had and yet AA has continued to shed routes and lose market share including in markets where US will do nothing to help or hurt. 
 
Would you like to start a pool, E, on how low new AA's share will sink and how fast over the next 3 years?   I am more than happy to indicate that AA will be smaller in NYC in the next few years. 
 
WorldTraveler said:
AA's future in the NE is in PHL, not NYC as much as some here want to try to believe otherwise.
PHL is a dumpy airport in a second rate market. Yep this merger is wonderful...

Josh
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
I'll be happy when more CLT flying moves to MIA. Of course you are gullible enough to believe DP when he says CLT will see additions not cuts.

Josh
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
Status
Not open for further replies.