How Delta Plays Politics in Washington: Who Needs Eric Cantor?

[topDawg]

Where are those A-340's now?

Are they at the paint hangar?

 
they are at the never ever going to happen hangar. right next to the 73Gs that are going to Southwest for 717s and the JAL 744s that are coming here. 
 
and that hangar is at the new hub in Dallas. 

ask E.

He is the one that made that statement.

I said that the economics of low cost (I don't think I never said free would be getting them for free - nothing in life really is- but I'm sure someone will find it if I really did say "free") 346s could work if they were part of a package for DL to acquire other Airbus aircraft.

The RFP hasn't been decided. With order cancellations by airlines for products of both A and B products, DL is likely going to be positioned to get what it needs - and may well still have room for growth aircraft despite setting 4 744s down.

Other than the aircraft market as a whole, not sure what that has to do with the topic here.

DL believes reforming the ExIm Bank is an effort worthy of the highest levels of DL execs and their time.

They have found traction on the subject in a number of key places, including the halls of Congress.

Only if Delta can't first find a way to outsource the flying to other airlines. Delta isn't finding airplanes to replace the 744s.......thats the crap paint job they are giving everyone. They are using winter pull downs to fund the parking and then will use the growth that isn't really growth A333s that are coming to replace them in the summer. It sounds like the next four 333s are going to replace four more 747s. 
 
and the A346 would never, ever work at Delta. Why do you think they are parking 744s? Delta wants out of the four engine market. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

once again, the whole notion of the A346s was potential lift that could be quickly obtained.

DL has had 777s flying the Atlantic to Europe this year - they are tonite, IIRC. Those are aircraft which are best designed to fly longhaul int'l flights.

The new 333s are capable of operating DTW to Asia. They are capable of replacing routes that are currently flown by 777s.

The 332s in turn will now be exclusively flying to Asia within a few months, a role it can do even with the "small" engines it has and the low takeoff weight compared to the new 330s.

DL has been doing mods on widebody aircraft for years; I don't know the net sum of what has not been in service on any day but I do know that there were 744 or 777 size aircraft that were in mods during the peak summer season.

I am still not convinced that DL is simply taking 4 new 333s to replace 4 744s.

Note also that the 767 is flying increasingly long routes such as LAX-LHR which will be one of DL's longest TATL routes. It is also flying to Asia from both SEA and LAX. It is a versatile aircraft and has been used to open much of DL's west coast to Asia network.

Finally, we have yet to see the result of the RFP which still could bring additional metal to DL even if DL can't get more time out of its existing fleet.

and we still haven't seen next summer's schedule yet or any announcements about new service.

It appears that VS made DL's announcements for it today; I'm not quite sure that DL is ready to announce its summer 2015 plans.

I want growth as much as you do.

I'm just not sure it's time to write off 2015 either in terms of no growth using DL's own fleet or because they are giving anything to codeshare partners.

Keep in mind also that the pilot contract is up for renewal in 2015; these kinds of discussion are very sensitive to them and DL's growth plans or not have a huge impact on success of those talks.

Finally, it isn't lost on DL that AA and UA are both growing the Pacific - as are a number of foreign airlines. It wouldn't take very long for DL to sit still before DL's market position is completely rendered worthless. DL mgmt. has consistently shown an ability to address the realities of what exists in the marketplace.

 

[topDawg]

once again, the whole notion of the A346s was potential lift that could be quickly obtained.
but it is false, it was false then and it is now. Virgin, the place the rumor came from, isn't even parking 346s yet. The 343s are going first. Then it will be a somewhat slower draw down as 787s come. 
DL has had 777s flying the Atlantic to Europe this year - they are tonite, IIRC. Those are aircraft which are best designed to fly longhaul int'l flights.
Okay? Delta is using 777s that would sit around. They didn't have the frames to add flying to Asia thus the one aircraft turns to London. 
The new 333s are capable of operating DTW to Asia. They are capable of replacing routes that are currently flown by 777s.
Some of DTW. PVG for example is going to be to long. 
 
NGO/PEK are going to be longer than SEA-HKG. Thats with the longer range 332..... so for the most part DTW Asia is out. 
The 332s in turn will now be exclusively flying to Asia within a few months, a role it can do even with the "small" engines it has and the low takeoff weight compared to the new 330s.
it will still have more range than the 333s coming in. 
DL has been doing mods on widebody aircraft for years; I don't know the net sum of what has not been in service on any day but I do know that there were 744 or 777 size aircraft that were in mods during the peak summer season.
you know i keep hearing this, but how long are we going with this? I mean we are almost a year out of all the aircraft mods being done, so how long are these aircraft in the mod stage? i mean they are all flying but Delta still has 777/744/330 "in mods" 
 
in other words, for S14 the aircraft mod thing is just a tag line used till people can figure out that the 330 fleet finished the widebody mods almost a year ago.... 
I am still not convinced that DL is simply taking 4 new 333s to replace 4 744s.
4 airplanes leave......4 airplanes come in. Delta's summer utilization isn't that low for the the rest of the fleet. 
Note also that the 767 is flying increasingly long routes such as LAX-LHR which will be one of DL's longest TATL routes. It is also flying to Asia from both SEA and LAX. It is a versatile aircraft and has been used to open much of DL's west coast to Asia network.
okay........?
Finally, we have yet to see the result of the RFP which still could bring additional metal to DL even if DL can't get more time out of its existing fleet.
I will almost bet it is 50 airplanes to replace 65 or so airplanes. They will say the 787/330/350/777/380/748/L10/M11 or whatever they pick is larger than the 767 thus reducing the need for 58 jets. Then the 744s are overcapacity so they need to be replaced one for one with smaller jets, and it sounds like that will mean 8 jets. 
and we still haven't seen next summer's schedule yet or any announcements about new service.
Thats because they don't have the fleet to grow. 
 
I am sure that AF/KL will add some more flying though. 
It appears that VS made DL's announcements for it today; I'm not quite sure that DL is ready to announce its summer 2015 plans.

I want growth as much as you do.

I'm just not sure it's time to write off 2015 either in terms of no growth using DL's own fleet or because they are giving anything to codeshare partners.

Keep in mind also that the pilot contract is up for renewal in 2015; these kinds of discussion are very sensitive to them and DL's growth plans or not have a huge impact on success of those talks.
Oh no, now we are going to go back to the "well yeah we made 3B this year but man next year.....I just don't know. Hey look 717s!!! yeah we should make 5B but look 717s!!! yeah we want to allow more outsourcing but say it with me Seven, one, Seven........" 
 
And ALPA has its wet dream and we all get screwed again. 
 
Counting on DALPA to be any kind of usefull is like counting on.....well gold bricks to come out of my but. 
Finally, it isn't lost on DL that AA and UA are both growing the Pacific - as are a number of foreign airlines. It wouldn't take very long for DL to sit still before DL's market position is completely rendered worthless. DL mgmt. has consistently shown an ability to address the realities of what exists in the marketplace.

But the pacific growth chances are drying up. I mean where else are they going to go? SEA-TPE may work. I don't think CAN will work (and i think it would eat away at HKG) DTW is maxed. I mean maybe in a few years HKG can come back. Delta doesn't have the jets for JFK-China or ATL-China. 
LAX-China is a blood bath. I mean maybe LAX-PEK would work but as soon as Delta adds it AA and UA are going to add it right behind them. 
 
Delta seems to be trying very hard to find some kind of capacity to cut to Europe. Again, no jets for India(and questionable if it can be made to work) Africa is a no go. 
 
I am not trying to be negative, I simply don't see any room for growth. I think LAX will get a few more domestic flights, I already know of one new one coming. SEA will get more flying if Delta can find some more room, but all of that is going to be DCI flights. 
ATL/DTW will see more mainline with the 717 but thats about it. I hope I am wrong but I think the 744 parkings mean very very very little growth across the the international network.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

did you see DL's traffic report today?

DL mainline domestic capacity was up by 4.1% while DCI was DOWN by 8.3%. Int'l capacity was up by 4.2% - almost all of which was mainline - lead by Latin growth. Atlantic was up by 3.2% while the Pacific was down by 2.8%. It is also worth noting that DL's Atlantic system is almost twice as large as its Pacific system at least during the summer. DL flies a lot of summer seasonal capacity - and does so profitably; very little seasonality on the Pacific other than not operating certain routes during offpeak periods.

The new 333s were undoubtedly ordered to be able to operationally replace the 744s to Japan, not Asia outside of Japan. The yen devaluation has significantly affected the Japan market; other carriers have cut Japan capacity as well. DL has the ability with the 333s to knock off about 1/4 of the capacity and a whole lot more costs. The 333 is a very good airplane to ensure DL can remain competitive in the local Japan market.

I don't expect the 333 will be used on many TPAC routes outside of Japan. The current 333s could fly some of the routes from SEA and LAX if DL wanted to continue to use them to do that; LAX-NRT has been an "old" 333 on several occasions.

There are growth opportunities. DL wlll get gates. There are strategic alternatives that DL can pursue to continue to growing.

It is far from time for DL to roll up the carpet and say we have done all we can.

DL will grow and will do it from a very strong and growing base, including the legacy segment of the industry's lowest CASM.