Hubs and Spokes
- Thread starter ChockJockey
- Start date
Jester
Veteran
jcw said:
PHL and CLT serve a purpose. PHL for international connecting and Northeast traffic whereas JFK would be highly slot restrictive. CLT provides a centrally located hub along the eastern seaboard (granted ATL would be a better option, but some other airline controls that one). PHX? Meh.... poor load yields sandwiched between two better yielding and existing hubs and conveniently located only to SAN and TUS for connecting passengers.
OP
- Thread Starter
- #35
PHX Mainline enplaned passengers arriving and departing June 2013 to May 2014: 14,719,000
PHX Mainline enplaned passengers arriving and departing June 2014 to May 2015: 14,795,000
PHX Mainline enplaned passengers arriving and departing June 2015 to May 2016: 15,034,000
Source: DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics
PHX Mainline enplaned passengers arriving and departing June 2014 to May 2015: 14,795,000
PHX Mainline enplaned passengers arriving and departing June 2015 to May 2016: 15,034,000
Source: DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Jester
Veteran
ChockJockey said:
Thank-you for the source, but I believe you to be missing the larger picture. Using the source you provided, I put together a simple speadsheet demonstrating the loss of PHX market share by AA/US, and apparent shift from mainline flying into regional jets. I will be the first to admit that the analysis would not be complete as the BTS did not provide data for all airlines, nor do I recall the year of AA/US reduction of Skywest in favor of Mesa or the impact of Eagle. However, these short comings only work in favor in the hypothesis that AA/US has been stable (or even growing) passengers totals.
2016 2015 2014 PAX PHX Share PAX% Chg PAX PHX Share PAX% Chg PAX PHX Share AA/US 15,034 37.17% 1.6% 14,795 37.70% 0.5% 14,719 39.44% Southwest 13,901 34.36% 6.7% 13,029 33.20% 7.2% 12,158 32.58% Mesa 2,335 5.77% 12.7% 2,071 5.28% 21.8% 1,700 4.55%
2016 2105 2014
PAX PHXshare PChg% PAX PHXshare PChg% PAX PHXshare
AA/US 15,034 37.17% 1.6% 14,795 37.70% 0.5% 14,719 39.44%
Southwest 13,901 34.36% 6.7% 13,029 33.20% 7.2% 12,158 32.58%
Mesa 2,335 5.77% 12.7% 2,071 5.28% 21.8% 1,700 4.55%
(Edit: Obviously the spreadsheet was a jumbled mess once posted.)
From the BTS stats, the top slot was labeled "US Airways" in years 2014 and 2015, but later changed to "American" in 2016. Unfortunately, the BTS did not provide the PAX totals for AA in the 2 earlier years as it was a relatively minor player in the PHX market, thus not providing a real comparative aggregate prior to the SOC. If years 2014 and 2015 did include AA small, but yet, significant impact to the analysis in PAX totals, I suspect the PAX% Change in 2016 would have been negative. In essence, the combined operations of both AA and US in 2016 should have demostrated significant gains in YOY increases in PAX totals against the seperate US total excluding AA in prior years versus the tepid 1.6% PAX increase in 2016. Furthermore, let us not overlook that 2015 saw only a 1/2% increase in PAX totals on the American side, while Southwest was chugging along at 7.2%.
However, the other 2 listed subjects in the analysis demonstrates Southwest's large YOY gains averaging close to 7% while Mesa saw double digit increases in PAX totals in both years. In fairness, much of Mesa's increase may have been little more than a shift in flying away from Skywest, but I thought that was pretty much completed by 2015 or even sooner.
So in conclusion, mainline American flying has been on a de facto decline in PAX total against the combined operations, gains in PAX have been towards regional jets on the American side (and I was not able to ferret out the statistics of Envoy which would increase the impact of regional jet flying), and Southwest has experienced very sizable gains into the PHX market in the past 3 years.
And let's keep in mind that nearly all of the data was during the 3-year grace period for which new American management promised to politicians not to change operations much. Aren't those 3 years over yet?
Jester said:
The problem here is that OO/YV stats (MQ does not operate out of PHX yet, by the way) include codeshare flying for both UA and DL, which skews the statistics to the point where utilizing them becomes meaningless when comparing for a combined operation of a single airline. The DOT only requires the operating airline to submit data for themselves, so you can't rely on that data for regional flying statistics. Luckily, we can cross-reference the DOT data with another source to get a better idea of the relationship between AA mainline and AA express in PHX.
What I've done is combined the DOT T100 Segment data, which reports only carrier statistics, with the statistics reported by the City of Phoenix, which provides totals for the combined express/mainline operation of each airline in PHX. The method here is pretty simple: I've taken the total enplaned passengers from the CoP data set and subtracted the total scheduled departure pax value obtained from the T100 data set. The numbers for American are the combined statistics for both AA and US in each year. The results are as follows:
Passenger Enplanements (DOT/CoP)
AA AA Mainline AA Eagle WN
2013 - 10,574,678 8,866,215 1,708,463 6,377,261
2014 - 10,958,205 9,066,923 1,891,282 6,653,115
2015 - 11,109,180 9,156,634 1,952,546 7,198,470
PHX Market Share (CoP)
AA WN
2013 - 52.44% 31.62%
2014 - 52.15% 31.66%
2015 - 50.49% 32.72%
AA Ops Share (DOT/CoP)
Mainline Express
2013 - 83.84% 16.16%
2014 - 82.74% 17.26%
2015 - 82.42% 17.51%
A couple of trends to note here, first obviously being that, yes, the mainline to express ratio is ever-so-slightly decreasing in favor of more express flying. However, a ~1.5% change isn't very drastic at all, and in terms of what it means for employees, I'm going to guess that the impact is negligible. This will be interesting to reevaluate in 10 months or so when the full stats for 2016 are available, though I really don't expect this to change in a large way. Second, both AA and WN continue to increase capacity in PHX, with WN slightly increasing its market share and AA slightly losing some of its market share. This is probably due to changes in gauge, mainly, the addition of more 737-800s on WN's side as I believe their departures have remained more or less flat. The decrease with AA can probably be explained in a slight rationalization of capacity and an increase in gauge from the other players in PHX including DL, which has been bringing in more mainline aircraft to replace regional flying and also the addition of SEA to its route portfolio.
All in all though, while the trend is technically negative, I don't see anything to really be alarmed about, especially considering the fact that the entire operation continues to grow.
Jester
Veteran
Strange,
Thank-you for your in-depth analysis, although I would like to see the link from the CoP.
Even if I accept your numbers to be true and accurate, we are faced with the reality that Express flying accounting for a disproportional share of additonal PAX. For example, Express flying has been 16-18% of total AA flying, but they have accounted for 41-48% of additional PAX. Not surprisingly, PAX mainline flying totals have experienced 2.3% and 1% increases during the years 2014 and 2015 versus 10.7% and 3.2% increases on the Express side. Of course, Southwest has 4.3% and 8.2% increases during those same years.
Simply stated... AA mainline flying has demonstrated marginal increases losing market share to both Southwest and Express flying. Let's see what the data in 2016 provides, as the data set I used included nearly half of the year and my forecast was far less charitable.
Thank-you for your in-depth analysis, although I would like to see the link from the CoP.
Even if I accept your numbers to be true and accurate, we are faced with the reality that Express flying accounting for a disproportional share of additonal PAX. For example, Express flying has been 16-18% of total AA flying, but they have accounted for 41-48% of additional PAX. Not surprisingly, PAX mainline flying totals have experienced 2.3% and 1% increases during the years 2014 and 2015 versus 10.7% and 3.2% increases on the Express side. Of course, Southwest has 4.3% and 8.2% increases during those same years.
Simply stated... AA mainline flying has demonstrated marginal increases losing market share to both Southwest and Express flying. Let's see what the data in 2016 provides, as the data set I used included nearly half of the year and my forecast was far less charitable.
I don't think some of it is "losing market share to Southwest and Express" so much as market share being given to Southwest and Express by AA management. BHM had 5 mainline flights a day to DFW. Now BHM has 5 AE flights per day (with an increase in traffic for Southwest flying from BHM). If Republic finds some more pilots, we are going to see more of this. We are now using mainline MD-80s to fly what were supposed to be AE routes and city pairs because Envoy and Republic can not add flights quick enough. These will revert to AE at the first opportunity.Jester said:
Jester
Veteran
"American passenger counts were down 10.7 percent in July and 15.8 percent in August."
http://www.azcentral.com/story/trav...-airport-extend-sky-train-add-gates/92524276/
Glad my transfer has been accepted and approved...
(that's me waving at the 00:27 point, as I didn't want to wait too long with the other Phoenix wreckage)
28L_or_10R?
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