IT WAS JUST A MATTER OF TIME !

[WorldTraveler]

what I have told you - but you seem not to want to accept - is that based on real world data based on what each carrier does in real markets - WN doesn't have near the advantage over network carriers in head to head markets that you and others seem to think they have... and they certainly don't even in markets like SLC-SEA where I posted the results above...
regardless of checked bags and pretzels or a full can or coke or not, DL manages to carry more passengers and get better fares - AS FLOWN, not what is for sale on their webiste.
And when you compare it DL and FL (WN's means to acquire a presence in ATL), DL has an even bigger share and revenue advantage.....
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so, sure I'll be happy to acknowledge when I see evidence that WN has managed to make inroads against other carriers, but I haven't seen near as much evidence of that compared to network carriers as a whole... and very little at all compared to DL....
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Which goes back to my oriiginal premise that WN hasn't realliy "fougth" for a lot of markets but built them from scratch... and that they prefer to go after "softer targets" when they do go after network carriers....
Given that DL has circled the wagons and is apparently ready to fully defend ATL, I not only don't see any reason to believe that WN's long-predicted assault on ATL is going to yield much fruit, but that it may actually cost weaker carriers on the east coast far more than it hurts WN or DL....
when you recognize that DL is fortifying its position in what it considers key strategic markets up and down the east coast (BOS, NYC, the Carolinas, Florida in addition to ATL), I don't see DL giving up much if anything to WN....
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And I do see that just as the article says, that WN will become just another name with prices that are not necessarily that much lower than other carriers - if at all- and that they offer a lower quality product - or at least w/ a whole lot fewer amenities.

 

[jimntx]

Sticking to coach, or, as you like to say, comparing apples to apples, what amenities, what frills? By saying that WN offers "fewer amenities" (your words) means that DL and/or other carriers offer MORE amenities. Which ones? Be specific. WN offers free checking for two bags; ALL of their aircraft offer leather seats (don't know about the Airtran side of the family). They offer more legroom than any other major carrier in coach. So, what amenities are you talking about?

 

[tech2101]

Sticking to coach, or, as you like to say, comparing apples to apples, what amenities, what frills? By saying that WN offers "fewer amenities" (your words) means that DL and/or other carriers offer MORE amenities. Which ones? Be specific. WN offers free checking for two bags; ALL of their aircraft offer leather seats (don't know about the Airtran side of the family). They offer more legroom than any other major carrier in coach. So, what amenities are you talking about?

Maybe I can save some bandwidth here...

WT = Delta good - Southwest not so good

All the rest of you, see above.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Tech,
since I gather from what you have written elsewhere, you are supposed to be one of those native English speaking mechanics who is capable of reading and comprehending English - which according to at least the folks of the AA forum gives you a huge advantage over overseas MROs, I'll assume that you actually have the capacity to engage in a discussion that involves sentences longer than 5 words... I'm going out on a limb but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
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Jim apparently has something up his crotch where he somehow thinks that WN has in the past and is going to just move in and mow down the network competitors in its path....
the problem with his logic is that I made it clear not just about DL (where this thread is posted) but also about other network carriers that thinking is not accurate... apparently Jim is either incapable of digesting more than a five word sentence or perhaps he can't admit that what he sees in the passenger cabin of an airplane is NOT the sum total of what it takes to make an airline successful.
He also apparently doesn't understand the value that network carriers offer (one of which apparently bothers to keep him on its payroll) and why they don't all just give up their expensive, complicated business models in favor of something simple JUST LIKE SOUTHWEST.
Apparently Jim doesn't realize that corporate contracts; frequent flyer programs such as what AA, DL, and UA have (which are multiple of times larger than WN's); those first class cabins (and he thought it was just about free drinks); audio, video, and Wi-Fi (which AA has on some aircraft, DL has on most of its domestic mainline fleet - and wihch WN has little if any of); and those huge hub airports that AA, DL, UA, US operate are there because they allow those carriers to serve many more markets than WN, including the ability to gather HIGHER REVENUE passengers than AA, DL... etc could find in just their hub cities.... all of this exists because the REVENUE MODEL of the network carriers JUSTIFIES the added complexity - and it produces REVENUE PREMIUMS relative to what low cost carriers get...
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DL isn't the only carrier that has figured that out... AA has too... which is probably also why they still ask Jim to look like a business person in uniform and not someone enroute to the mall on Saturday afternoon.
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The difference between AA and DL is that AA hasn't ever had a large low fare carrier operation in its largest hub; DL has.... and they have figured out how to compete quite effectively against them. Yet, it is also true that network carriers OVERALL have had a very good track record in resisting WN's growth in their hubs as long as they half tried.
Jim probably doesn't realize that by the end of 2009, AA still had a slight edge in the amount of total domestic (US only) revenue in STL compared to WN even though WN had 1/3 more seats. By the end of 2010, however, AA had thrown in the towel on STL and wasn't even trying to protect its position in the market - and WN ended the year with exactly twice the amount of revenue of AA (amazing that WN doubled their revenue in one year) and AA cut 30% of its capacity while WN added about the same percentage....
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I mentioned the other hubs above and in none of them has WN managed to obtain a majority of the revenue share... DEN as I noted is by far the closest... and it is also the one where UA most intentionally chose to walk away the bruising three competition - and with the purchase of CO, is shifting even more capacity away from DEN. .
But the notion that WN has waltzed into network carrier hubs and taken over is simply not supported by evidence.. and it doesn't matter what carrier WN has competed with.
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So, yeah, it kinda blows Jim's theory that baggage fees and that whole package of services that passengers are willing to pay for really do result in HIGHER REVENUE for the network carrier than for WN, but that is exactly what the data says... and that is why AA and DL and UA and US haven't given up on their complicated, expensive hubs and networks full of amenities (even if Jim doesn't recognize them as such) in favor of WN's simple model which everyone can understand but which really doesn't deliver near as much revenue as some (like Jim) want to believe it delivers - or that it holds up as well as he thinks against network carriers.
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Maybe if Jim also understood that the size of a carrier really does allow it to command revenue premiums - even between network carriers and low fare carriers - then he would understand the reason that DL has a 15-20% or more average fare premium in ATL against FL and that premium is directly related to DL's size which is roughly four times larger than FL just counting the US market from ATL...
Jim would also recognize that the reason why AA has pulled down its capacity at ORD and JFK and moved alot of it to MIA and DFW is because AA's larger size in those two southern hubs translate into revenue premiums.
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And Jim thought it was just about checked baggage fees and whether the passenger gets peanuts or pretzels.
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Poor Jim doesn't understand how his airline runs... but I bet you, Tech, who can read detailed technical manuals, are capable of understanding the value of the product YOUR employer offers.
And understanding that product, you know that it really isn't that DL is good and WN is not so good... but that DL and WN both know what they do good and manage to focus on their strengths - and also to not get involved in bruising fights with each other that do neither one any good.
And so, WN, which is run by some pretty smart people (they live in Texas, Jim), will focus its efforts on how to maximize its revenue and still manage to have a presence in the all-important market of ATL which WN has been dying to enter for oh so many years - but it really ain't gonna lose sleep if its revenue share remains in the mid-teens just like it has in other network carrier hubs, even ones that aren't operated by DL.

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oh yeah, Jim,
DL has all leather seats on most of its domestic fleet as well....
and do you really know how many people actually pay to check baggage? you do realize that a whole lot of people carry everything they need on the plane, many are elites and are exempt from bag fees, others are waived as part of corporate contracts, and others have that Amex card which allows them to be waived as well.
so, sure the average leisure traveler might pay more bag fees.. but they apparently are also willing to pay higher fares - or so says the data that DL and other carriers file with the DOT - and when you throw in their bag fees, well that just says that DL gets EVEN MORE money for its services, which you seem to think doesn't have near as many amenities.
If DL can manage to convince people that its services are more valuable despite having fewer amenities, then I suggest you listen to them and then go duplicate their business model someplace else.

 

[tech2101]

I'm going out on a limb but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Thanks. And I no longer work for any airline, or as an AMT anywhere for that matter. I just follow as I still have an interest in aviation.

I apologize for being flip.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Thanks. And I no longer work for any airline, or as an AMT anywhere for that matter. I just follow as I still have an interest in aviation.

I apologize for being flip.

glad you found greener grass elsewhere...
having fun in a discussion is fine.... and I welcome the levity esp. when talking about "serious" subjects....
But it also says that there are factual bases for what goes on in the industry... it isn't just an accident that certain carriers do well and others struggle... and because the airline industry is a business, ultimately the reason for that success or failure comes down to money..... serving peanuts or pretzels, for instance, is a line item in someone's budget but last time I checked, DL has ads and propaganda on the peanut wrappers and I expect Biscoff makes a fortune off of the exposure from Delta. Bottom line the cost for onboard snacks is likely pennies per passenger - but it also sends a subtle message that DL offers just a tad more than other carriers..... remember that it wasn't very long ago that CO used the meals it served as a marketing distinction... so does that make their serivce not much different from other carriers, now?
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No one is doubting that WN is a good carrier - and they have succeeded mightily... but they have largely succeeded because they have carved out and created new markets much more than because they have gone head to head with other carriers in order to push their way into markets. When you look at carriers like DL which have been very aggressive in defending its turf against low cost carriers, you see that the result has been that WN has figured out that it needs to go elsewhere to grow.
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DL has figured out how to live with FL in its backyard and still succeed - and by all metrics obtain higher revenue and more of it from its passengers in markets where FL also operates.
DL is taking WN seriously and WN needs a presence in ATL... but beyond that, expectations that WN will steamroll its way into ATL at DL's expense or that WN will win because of what it has done in the past just don't square with the facts and reality that exist today.
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thanks for your contributions to this thread and forum... keep 'em coming, whether you agree or not...

 

[2BlacknBlue]

Oh, I see....still tossing darts! lol

 

[signals]

There is no doubt that Delta is the Goliath here. Maybe Southwest won't even be noticed. Only time will tell. Just don't put up the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner just yet

 

[FWAAA]

WT keeps posting that DL gets higher fares than WN in competing markets - well, of course it does. Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Southwest tends to bring fares down, so it's no surprise that it may not generate the same high revenues as DL. That's been the problem facing every legacy airline as WN has expanded. WN may not dominate markets in which it competes with DL, but if it imposes fare discipline in those markets, that won't be good for DL. DL may be the low-cost provider now, but if history is any guide, its costs will increase faster than WN's costs.

Soutwest has increased its fares as it stubbornly clings to its misguided "bag fees are included in your fares" mantra, but it still doesn't gouge on the last-minute fares quite as much as the legacy airlines. Not always cheapest, to be sure, but almost never the most expensive for walk-up fares.

 

[WorldTraveler]

WT keeps posting that DL gets higher fares than WN in competing markets - well, of course it does. Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Southwest tends to bring fares down, so it's no surprise that it may not generate the same high revenues as DL. That's been the problem facing every legacy airline as WN has expanded. WN may not dominate markets in which it competes with DL, but if it imposes fare discipline in those markets, that won't be good for DL. DL may be the low-cost provider now, but if history is any guide, its costs will increase faster than WN's costs.

Soutwest has increased its fares as it stubbornly clings to its misguided "bag fees are included in your fares" mantra, but it still doesn't gouge on the last-minute fares quite as much as the legacy airlines. Not always cheapest, to be sure, but almost never the most expensive for walk-up fares.

Nothing wrong w/ advertising no bag fees... you just have to understand that all of the network carriers have exceptions that exempt many of their most valuable passengers from them...
DL and other network carriers gets higher fares because they manage capacity to keep the fares at levels that make sense for their business model and because they offer a more valuable product - which results in higher revenue.
It's not just DL that gets higher average fares in comparable markets; it is the EXCEPTION where a network carrier DOESN'T get better average fares... because their business model DEMANDS it.
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Look at Houston-Chicago this afternoon... WN offers fares from $400 +/- on nonstops from HOU to MDW while CO offers IAH to ORD. Is CO going to lose business... probably not.
Even if you compare a direct DL-WN competitive route, DL and WN are both offering the same $261 fare this afternoon and DL has more departures this afternoon than WN that offer fares not much more than WN.
So, it isn't any surprise that CO and DL still hold onto significant shares in their markets... they not only have more seats but they price them the same if not slightly higher and they offer a whole package of services that WN doesn't offer - some of which are "included in the price" for some members, some of which are available at a charge to others.
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in fact, DL has faced "fare discipline" from a number of low fare carriers for years.. and it has held onto its position in its core markets because it can adapt to the markeplace... whether it be SLC or ATL or LGA to MCO and TPA in blistering competition that has pushed other network carriers out of the market.
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once again, you also miss the fact that DL has indeed been able to control its costs as good as or better than WN since it emerged from BK... and better than other network carriers as well. DL's mainline CASM ex-fuel have been largely flat even with the pay raise that many DL employees just received. DL's ability to pull costs out (ala the voluntary programs) ensures that DL is as well positioned to keep costs under control as any network carrier.
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Again, I have yet to see anything other than speculation - and what if - that DL is not capable of dealing with both the increase in low fare capacity and in managing costs to ensure DL is positioned to respond to the competition.
When you have some facts to show me otherwise, I'm more than ready to listen.

 

[eolesen]

Southwest tends to bring fares down, so it's no surprise that it may not generate the same high revenues as DL. That's been the problem facing every legacy airline as WN has expanded. WN may not dominate markets in which it competes with DL, but if it imposes fare discipline in those markets, that won't be good for DL. DL may be the low-cost provider now, but if history is any guide, its costs will increase faster than WN's costs.

Yep. Lots of data showing that WN has more pricing power, and that yields go down for the guys charging excessive fares. Neither DL or any other legacy has maintained the ability to control pricing when WN is in the market, nor will they be able to as long as customers believe that WNs pricing is more reasonable -- even if they aren't the lowest fare, they're seen as the fairest fare, and the best at consistently meeting customer and employee expectations.

I think more importantly than the cost factor, DL's hub premium at ATL is toast. That's pretty much what happened to F9 and HP and a lesser degree, legacy US. They could afford higher costs with the higher yields they were pulling in. Cut the revenue premiums, and things go to hell pretty quickly.

The sky won't fall overnight, but with WN's stronger brand value, DL should definitely see some pressure in the revenue department. Especially if WN chooses to go after more TMC and B2B than they do today...

 

[WorldTraveler]

except that in your zeal to predict DL's downfall, you seem unable to wrap your little mind around the reality that DL HAS HAD a very aggressive competitor in FL for many years... and DL HAS consistently matched FL's fares... and you also miss the fact that FL has lower fares than WN, reflective of FL's lower cost structure.
Sure, WN has a stronger brand than FL but you STILL have yet to demonstrate anything other than your posturing that says that DL will not be able to do exactly what it has done - which has allowed no low fare carrier to take any significant share of any of its key markets - other than in the NE-Florida markets where DL intentionally pulled down capacity as part of its restructuring.
F9 and HP were basketcases at the time WN moved in... you also can't seem to grasp that WN has very opportunitistically moved into markets when the dominant carriers have been at their weakest... they did in PHX and PHL and DEN - and they largely won...
But you also can't seem to accept the fact that DL hasn't given WN an INCH in SLC despite all of the difficulties that DL went through.
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When you can get back with some factual data other than your own speculation and wishful dreaming....
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perhaps the reason why you seem so unable to carry on an intelligent conversation about network aspects of your business is because it is way outside of what you do... by your own admission.
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are your posts in the middle of the night reflective of your insomnia or the fact that your "clients" are wanting you to work all hours of the day and night?

 

[xUT]

except that in your zeal to predict DL's downfall, you seem unable to wrap your little mind around the reality that DL HAS HAD a very aggressive competitor in FL for many years... and DL HAS consistently matched FL's fares... and you also miss the fact that FL has lower fares than WN, reflective of FL's lower cost structure.
Sure, WN has a stronger brand than FL but you STILL have yet to demonstrate anything other than your posturing that says that DL will not be able to do exactly what it has done - which has allowed no low fare carrier to take any significant share of any of its key markets - other than in the NE-Florida markets where DL intentionally pulled down capacity as part of its restructuring.
F9 and HP were basketcases at the time WN moved in... you also can't seem to grasp that WN has very opportunitistically moved into markets when the dominant carriers have been at their weakest... they did in PHX and PHL and DEN - and they largely won...
But you also can't seem to accept the fact that DL hasn't given WN an INCH in SLC despite all of the difficulties that DL went through.
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When you can get back with some factual data other than your own speculation and wishful dreaming....
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perhaps the reason why you seem so unable to carry on an intelligent conversation about network aspects of your business is because it is way outside of what you do... by your own admission.
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are your posts in the middle of the night reflective of your insomnia or the fact that your "clients" are wanting you to work all hours of the day and night?

Skip your meds today?

 

[QA4Jet-A]

This is the 'Doom & Gloom' of WN... invading ATL. Of Course there is no way they can compete with DL. Shucks, FL has been in BK since they started trying to compete with DL, right WT? Wanna bet a bunch of people flew for less with FL being around than having DL as an option? I priced a DL ticket ATL /AUA 6 weeks ago. 1 way over $800. Flew to CLT the day before and took US for a tad over $200! Yes, we here at FL are all trembling at the thought of Failure since the Cattle Car Carrier is invading ATL. Keep in mind, the 717's get better fuel mileage than the Classic's. Looking at the Route Map of both Carriers, after SOC, look for a very advanced structure to be available to the flying public. Still no Bag Fees and you won't need a Credit Card either!! Of course, I don't know squat, I just work for an airline!

 

[southwind]

Oh, I see....still tossing darts! lol

Are you seriously referencing something from EIGHT years ago ? :blink: