LGA Expansion

[BoeingBoy]

And Jim I simply correct the erroneous statements you have made..

As I have yours...

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

As I have yours...

Jim

and I welcome you and others to do the same... but we seem to get in tussles over word parsing rather than substantive discussions far too often.

One of the things WT often neglects is the emotional investment people have in the carrier(s) they grew up at. It forms a subtext to many of the posts on this board-including his- despite the persistent claim that his position is one of clinical detachment. That along with human beings' generally being adverse to change are precisely why things like "Keep DL my DL" are so effective. That's not necessarily a bad thing; just one that needs to be acknowledged.

an excellent observation and one that I completely agree with.
For some strange reason, aviation generates enormous loyalties.... are there chat forums by employees/retirees/fans of cell phone companies, fertlizer companies, or milk producers? I don't know but I seriously doubt that even if they exist they would generate even a fraction of the passion.

Further, there are a significant number of people on this and other aviation chat forums that are not active airline employees... thus the notion that anyone isn't an active employee is a "rule" that would be mighty hard to enforce.

While some can't let the idea out of their head, I have nothing to gain should DL succeed more than they are doing now.

I have never said I was not biased. I just happen to focus on a segment of the business - network dynamics and financial aspects of the industry - which most people on this or other forums don't discuss.... and like it or not, fair or not, I do come w/ resources, training, and knowledge that are not on the same level that others have.... These subjects also have quantifiable metrics regarding success.

There are some subjects that are clearly divisive - labor discussions, esp. here, not the least - and would probably best be left to the domain of those who are actually in the industry, esp. since many of the labor discussions here have been between the PMDL and PMNW mindset which have been and probably also will be enormously different from a million cultural perspectives.
There is value in learning to just accept life "as is" - a lesson I would do well to put in practice.

But my bias doesn't blind me to the fact that DL has done a well-above average job of building its franchise in an industry that has destroyed most of the capital it has ever been given - and there is an abundance of data to show that.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that DL was banking on US' collapse, wings, but if they did, I know nothing about it. Even if they did make such plans, it would have been within the context of the same plans they make regarding every other competitor and the changes that continually occur in the industry.
It would be a poor mgmt team that DID sit by and not plan for every possible outcome... I don't think that DL will or has done that.

I also don't expect that anyone else is going to let DL steamroll through. US IS a well-run company now and is capable of doing things it couldn't do before. But you can't change the fact that AA, DL, and UA all have size advantages over US that will make it very hard for US to do anything unless those three are asleep at the wheel - which none are.

There is a lot more room for diverse opinions on this forum and I think we ALL can learn to participate in conversations with a bit more constructive mindset.

 

[BoeingBoy]

and I welcome you and others to do the same... but we seem to get in tussles over word parsing rather than substantive discussions far too often.

It's hard to hold discussions when you consider your opinion's as "facts" and everyone elses's as "wrong"...

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

Facts are facts, Jim. I make a great deal of effort to base my opinions in fact. If I don't do that, call me out on it.

But I'm afraid alot of people don't want to face the reality that some of the facts say, including saying that I manipulate them.
Sometimes facts say uncomfortable things.. and you are as welcome to bring facts that show your side of the story as much as I am.

Throwing someone's facts out because you don't like them is the complete opposite of objectivity.

But rather than get into a twit about words - which we seem to be capable of doing - raise an issue about a "fact" that you don't agree with and we'll deal with it.

 

[Kev3188]

an excellent observation and one that I completely agree with.
For some strange reason, aviation generates enormous loyalties.... are there chat forums by employees/retirees/fans of cell phone companies, fertlizer companies, or milk producers? I don't know but I seriously doubt that even if they exist they would generate even a fraction of the passion.

You probably could've just left it at this, and had everyone nodding in agreement.

Further, there are a significant number of people on this and other aviation chat forums that are not active airline employees... thus the notion that anyone isn't an active employee is a "rule" that would be mighty hard to enforce.

This board skews to active employees, which IMO, is part of the appeal. If I want to hang with the "airplanes are neato" crowd, I'll go to A.Net.

While some can't let the idea out of their head, I have nothing to gain should DL succeed more than they are doing now.

Sure you do, and that was my whole point. You gain the satisfaction of seeing the carrier you "hitched your wagon to" (or whatever it was you said earlier) rise to the top. You can't for a second convince me that that isn't underscored in anything you write. Again, nothing wrong with that.

It's hard to hold discussions when you consider your opinion's as "facts" and everyone elses's as "wrong"...

Jim

^This^

 

[WorldTraveler]

Sure you do, and that was my whole point. You gain the satisfaction of seeing the carrier you "hitched your wagon to" (or whatever it was you said earlier) rise to the top. You can't for a second convince me that that isn't underscored in anything you write. Again, nothing wrong with that.

that may be true, probably is... but I'm having a hard time seeing what I gain out of all of it.

Even if this board is predominantly active employees, there are a number of retired and former employees on this forum and they are far from just kiddies fascinated with things that fly... they know the part of the business in which they worked very well.

I happened to grow up in a city where DL was strong but in which they are surpassed in size by two other carriers... for whatever reason I saw something about what DL was that attracted me and my instincts were not wrong.
I don't think (believe for those of you who get hung up by such words) I should to apologize for having picked the right horse decades ago and "my horse" is still running to win.

And you, like Jim, are welcome to call me on factual errors if you find them.
If I draw a conclusion based on facts which you know are not correct, you should call them out.
But the converse is to recognize that there really may be facts that underscore some things that you or others might know about or want to acknowledge... and then the issue really is alot more black and white than you think.

Specific to the LGA slot deal, I think both principles apply. DL has had a "fire in the belly" for years that caused it to seek out the slot deal and accomplish something that won't be able to be duplicated in a market that really can make the difference in the industry as a whole.
And I have not used a single piece of data in this thread that is not factual or does not reflect the whole truth.
The simple reality is that DL set out to accomplish something in NYC that no one else had tried and is well on the way to achieving it - and reshape the industry in the process.
Like anything else I write, I am willing to lay even the subjective part of that statement before the judge of time to see how accurate I have been.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Facts are facts, Jim. I make a great deal of effort to base my opinions in fact. If I don't do that, call me out on it.

Not necessarily...most of life isn't like math where 2+2 always equals 4 (and there's probably people that could explain when even that is wrong). Facts come from information and the interpretation of information can often be manipulated to reach the "facts" desired to support a position.

Take B6's RASM for this month compared to last year. Even the CFO at B6 doesn't know exactly what the YoY comparison will be yet, but you start a thread whose central theme is that they're losing higher revenue passengers to ... maybe DL. Facts won't be publicly known until the RASM for this month is reported and even that, without additional data, won't explain why any change that will occur reallly occurred. I mentioned one posibility, since I have no idea what the final result will be.

Take US' attempted takeover of DL. You claimed a "fact" - it happened a decade ago. It actually was a little over half a decade ago - you were off by nearly a factor of two. Facts? There's been no "Oops, I rounded that off way too much" - is it that hard to admit a mistake?

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

No, Jim, I didn't start a thread... I inserted a post in a post that has been going on for quite some time.

B6 most certainly DID post a RASM estimate. Their traffic statement and the RASM projection is an SEC document. They did not provide an explanation.. .they simply said their RASM would be down. In the absence of their explanation, it is a bit of a reach to come to that conclusion. But note that Kevin picked up that I used alot of qualifiying words like supposedly... hardly thinking I had an answer they did not.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The big picture that started almost a decade ago when he jumped on the bandwagon with his boss and most everyone else at US who decided that they were going to “Make Delta my ####” in their failed takeover attempt.

here's the statement that you and wings seem to want to jump on and parse...
nowhere does it say "exactly 10 years" ... not sure what the definition of "almost" with respect to 10 years of time is... it is certainly not 5 1/2 years.
According to some sources, US' takeover attempt was launched on Nov 15 which is almost 6 years ago - hardly an error of two.

If it makes you feel better, I'll be happy to say I erred in my statement.

If you want to parse words to the nth degree, though, you shouldn't be surprised if I bring out EXACTLY the facts to prove or disprove whatever point you want to make.

 

[BoeingBoy]

No, Jim, I didn't start a thread... I inserted a post in a post that has been going on for quite some time.

My mistake, then - see how easy that is...

B6 most certainly DID post a RASM estimate. Their traffic statement and the RASM projection is an SEC document. They did not provide an explanation.. .they simply said their RASM would be down.

Read what I wrote - "Even the CFO at B6 doesn't know exactly what the YoY comparison will be yet..." I didn't say that they hadn't posted an estimate that it'll be lower YoY. What I pointed out was a possible explanation of why it would be lower, as opposed to jumping to conclusions. I think Kev's pointing out the number of qualifiers was meant to question why even discuss it in a thread unrelated to B6 - it was your choice to use some remarks apparently from A.net (I don't visit that site) as the basis for your conjecture that it was related to DL's presence. For someone who claims to only post "facts" it seems you're reaching to manufacturer some at times...

Jim

 

[BoeingBoy]

here's the statement that you and wings seem to want to jump on and parse...
nowhere does it say "exactly 10 years" ... not sure what the definition of "almost" with respect to 10 years of time is... it is certainly not 5 1/2 years.

Odd, you neglect to quote your "a decade ago" from later in the same post..."a decade" is, in fact, 10 years.

I'm glad to see that you recognize that 5+ years isn't a decade - it's just comical that it takes you a bunch of words to say so few meaningful ones...

Jim

 

[wings396]

So 5 years is almost a decade?

 

[WorldTraveler]

So 5 years is almost a decade?

is Nov 15, 2006 to Sept 18, 2012 really 5 years?

Jim,
It is ALL an estimate until the final results are posted... but it IS an estimate and B6 made it. To somehow argue that the CEO is clueless how the month will turn out is simply inaccurate.

Once again, we can debate semantics til the cows come home, but there should be no doubt that DL's LGA operation is targeted at a number of competitors and with respect to the intra-NE operation, B6 is clearly in DL's crosshairs. B6 built a hub at JFK based on its ability to stimulate local traffic WITHIN the NE and to use that local traffic to sustain its flights elsewhere in the US from JFK - markets such as Florida where DL has had a strong historic presence.
Whether you want to admit it or not, DL "trumped" B6 by basically duplicating at LGA a big chunk of B6's hub operation at JFK... it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that LGA is the preferred airport for NYC local passengers and the fact that DL is adding a SUBSTANTIAL amount of capacity in markets where US didn't really bother to compete and left the market to either UA/CO at EWR or B6 at JFK WILL result in revenue gains for DL at the expense of other carriers and strengthen DL's ability to compete in other markets such as NYC-Florida which DL operated on a point to point basis before but which they can operate as part of a hub, as B6 has done at JFK and CO/UA did at EWR.

I will simply wait until the data and evidence comes out to show that DL is having an impact on B6's NE-JFK operation because it WILL happen... and it will duplicate the same trend that will occur in other markets... by virtue of having a hub at LGA, DL will have greater ability to tap the local market in dozens of markets. If you don't believe me, then stick around for the results.

 

[wings396]

I'm one year off, and you are 4...
No way you will ever take a hit for being WRONG without attempting to shift the blaim to someone else.
Very tough to even attempt getting along with you......

 

[WorldTraveler]

save the words... I already said I am happy to admit I am wrong....

If it makes you feel better, I'll be happy to say I erred in my statement.

but you are no more accurate in your assessment of "5 years" than my assessment of "almost 10"... "more than 5 years" and I'd let you call it a victory... but I'm not going to give you a 15% rounding error while you parse words to the 1/1000 of a decimal point.

Arguing that a 20% error is OK but 80% is not is hypocrisy. They are both wrong if you want to define it so literally.

Admit neither is right and we'll move on. I am happy to say that my ten year comment was not accurate.

It doesn't change the fact that you and I have been butting heads for a whole lot closer to 10 years than the "almost 6" of US' failed takeover of DL...

Doesn't change the fact that in just one key NYC-NE market which US flew with turboprops from but which B6 flew with mainline jets from JFK, B6 carried over 3 times more passengers in the local market - not counting connections - at average fares that are far from bargain basement fares.
DL has now added 3X more capacity in the market than US flew and DL now has the capacity to carry every passenger that B6 carried from JFK via DL's new service at LGA.
I have no idea how much connecting traffic DL is carrying in that market but even cursory public information indicates that DL is filling its seats in that market with ease on several days.
To argue that B6 is not being impacted is simply foolish.... and while you argue semantics, I'll post the data to show that the DL hub is doing what US couldn't figure out what to do and will change the dynamics of the NYC market and many other markets on the east coast at the same time.

Whenever you and others keep trying to divert the conversation from the key strategic questions, I'll keep trotting out data like this to show how much is at stake and how successful DL is in the pursuit of their objectives.... and this is just one market.

You should probably spend your time thinking about a plan B for US based on the reality of a much stronger DL in US' backyard instead of focusing so much attention on words that you don't use with any more accuracy.