Q1 2017 AAL Earnings

[CremaDiLimone]

earnings before the bell tomorrow.

a few weeks ago, aa upped it's 1st q guidance with a 4%-6% pre-tax margin on revenue. revenues estimated to be around $9.62 billion. that's a fairly wide gap and only gets better if revenues surprise on the upside.

if i add $80 million to revenues, we have revenue at $9.7 billion, we are looking at pre-tax earnings between $388 million - $582 million for the 1st quarter. not far off dl's $600+ million for their 1st quarter.

for those keeping score for next year's profit sharing..figure 5% into the kitty of anything between $388 million and $582 million. not much.

 

[bob@las-AA]

earnings before the bell tomorrow.

a few weeks ago, aa upped it's 1st q guidance with a 4%-6% pre-tax margin on revenue. revenues estimated to be around $9.62 billion. that's a fairly wide gap and only gets better if revenues surprise on the upside.

if i add $80 million to revenues, we have revenue at $9.7 billion, we are looking at pre-tax earnings between $388 million - $582 million for the 1st quarter. not far off dl's $600+ million for their 1st quarter.

for those keeping score for next year's profit sharing..figure 5% into the kitty of anything between $388 million and $582 million. not much.

You can subscribe to creamy's numbers if you like,
but I have a few numbers of my own.

Let's go ahead and give a bump in revenue say 5% for 2017

1st Q in 2016 was 9435 (billion) revenues
1st Q fuel 2016 1029 (billion)
1st Q lobor 2016 2652 (billion)
1st Q expenditures 8100 (billion)
1st Q pre tax profit 1335 (billion)


(est) 1st Q 2017 9907 (billion) revenues up 5%
(est) 1st Q 2017 fuel 1451 (billion) up 41%
(est) 1st Q 2017 labor 3315 (billion) up 25%
(est) 1st Q 2017 expenditures 9185 (billion) up 13.4% YOY
(est) 1st Q 2017 pre tax profit 722 (million) Down 84.9% YOY

And for all you malcontents, that 36(million) for your PS stash.

 

[bob@las-AA]

And for argument sake, if AAL has a Flat year,

(722*4)*.05 / (3315*4) = 0.0108% of your years wages.

(30.17*2080)* 0.0108899 = $683.38 before tax.

Thanks to all who cried to Parker for PS. He even told us that he would rather give us a higher wage and have it in our checks.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

why would q1 2016 numbers have any bearing on q1 2017?? the analysts know this. oil was in the high $20s in the fall/winter of 2015-16 to pump up q1 2016 numbers.

what were dl's and ua's corresponding numbers?? didn't their profits also fall?

didn't you say because a few thousand fscs got $6 raises, this will cause aa to collapse?? is this why your numbers mean so much to you? that is the secret missing link? you've linked falling profits to raises for fsc and amt?

your surprise for q1: if aa generates $300 million more in revenues for q1 than expected, we'll have cake and cookies in every ready room across the nation. i hope you're right, but don't send that resume into goldman sachs, just yet.

aa has already come out and said that the new raises for pilots and f/a will cost the company an additional apprx. $230 million for all of 2017.

don't they see what you see?

i do believe we will surprise on the upside tomorrow and the stock will get a bump and this time, stick...as long as rasm continues to creep up.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

• Recorded a first-quarter 2017 pre-tax profit of $365 million, or $491 million excluding net special items,1 and net profit of $234 million, or $308 million excluding net special items
• Reported first-quarter earnings of $0.46 per diluted share, or $0.61 per diluted share excluding net special items
• Deferred the first delivery of Airbus A350 XWBs from 2018 to 2020, delaying capital expenditures and providing additional widebody capacity flexibility
• Announced an unprecedented step to increase hourly base pay for the airline’s crewmembers outside of contract negotiations, bringing those workgroups’ base pay levels to the top of the industry, consistent with other American Airlines workgroups

well...they beat on top and bottom lines. they are also very upbeat about trasm for 2 quarter 2017 (up 3%-5%, significantly higher than dl/ua) and are guiding 11%-13% pre-tax margin for 2 q 2017. so, looking to get back earning $1 billion in a quarter.

good quarter and even better guidance, wall street is throwing a fit about yesterday's raises and the stock is down a few dollars in pre-market trading.

 

[WeAAsles]

• Recorded a first-quarter 2017 pre-tax profit of $365 million, or $491 million excluding net special items,1 and net profit of $234 million, or $308 million excluding net special items
• Reported first-quarter earnings of $0.46 per diluted share, or $0.61 per diluted share excluding net special items
• Deferred the first delivery of Airbus A350 XWBs from 2018 to 2020, delaying capital expenditures and providing additional widebody capacity flexibility
• Announced an unprecedented step to increase hourly base pay for the airline’s crewmembers outside of contract negotiations, bringing those workgroups’ base pay levels to the top of the industry, consistent with other American Airlines workgroups

well...they beat on top and bottom lines. they are also very upbeat about trasm for 2 quarter 2017 (up 3%-5%, significantly higher than dl/ua) and are guiding 11%-13% pre-tax margin for 2 q 2017. so, looking to get back earning $1 billion in a quarter.

good quarter and even better guidance, wall street is throwing a fit about yesterday's raises and the stock is down a few dollars in pre-market trading.

Nice. Was little Bobby WRONG?

 

[WeAAsles]

 

[CremaDiLimone]

he believes that we are so worthless that monkeys can do our job (we get paid too much) but then also thinks we are so important that $6 pay raises will collapse the company??

parker getting grilled on raises. first 2 questions from analysts...citibank analyst said shareholders may conclude 'dumb management'.

jamie baker of jp morgan says $1 billion wealth transfer to employees is troubling. he doesn't understand why we are getting that money and not him and his ilk??

parker brought up dl's 6% raises this month. basically saying...why didn't you pick on them??

 

[CremaDiLimone]

wow...parker on a controlled rant about aal stock being undervalued.

 

[WeAAsles]

wow...parker on a controlled rant about aal stock being undervalued.

Good for him. Those analysts and the market have OCD.

 

[Albert]

Nice. Was little Bobby WRONG?

Don't talk about Bob like that!!!!!

 

[bob@las-AA]

Don't talk about Bob like that!!!!!

It's ok Al, looks like I was only off by a bit. But enough, I'm on vaca and will be headed to weezy's neck of the woods. Road trip!

 

[WeAAsles]

It's ok Al, looks like I was only off by a bit. But enough, I'm on vaca and will be headed to weezy's neck of the woods. Road trip!

Glad to hear it Bob. I need a good man to do a little electrical work in my condo.

Maybe you can help me find someone?

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

• Deferred the first delivery of Airbus A350 XWBs from 2018 to 2020, delaying capital expenditures and providing additional widebody capacity flexibility

Looks like the odds of the A350 XWB never showing up at AA went a little higher ... ... ...

 

[WeAAsles]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-aal-earnings-conference-120218072.html