thanks for sharing his post and I don't disagree with what he says other than him making the assumption (I see no facts) that DL was trying to force KE into a JV.
There are way too many people, and perhaps him, that think this has large consequences to both DL and KE. It doesn't. They'll both be fine.
If KE needs for its passengers to be able to gain DL Skymiles, then they are sunk. But that is not the case.
I don't disagree with a number of things that Cranky says but no one should try to read more into what he says or doesn't say.
Even if DL wanted a JV, I am certain it would have been a multi-carrier JV just like UA and Star have. He isn't willing to say that DL would have been content with a single nation JV because I am sure they would not. KE wants a piece of DL's Japan operation and DL would probably be willing to give part of it to them if DL also got a piece of what KE carries from the US to China and Japan. I doubt if KE is willing to give DL as much as they want from DL.
Remember that S. Korea's market won't be growing near as large as China's and isn't as large as what Japan is today. KE is boxed in and that puts DL, not KE, in the driver's seat.
Korean is an oversized carrier in a relatively small market that will be hurt when the countries around S. Korea develop air service proportionate to their size.
KE doesn't have a JV with any airline, IIRC, even though S. Korea has had open skies with the US for years.
It is also very likely that the Chinese gov't is close to signing open skies with the US which would allow joint ventures between the US and China.
DL either wants KE in on the JV with the Chinese or it doesn't want to be involved with KE at all. They are too big to allow them privileged access without reciprocal benefits.
It also doesn't change that KE routes its passengers on the lowest priced connections, even if that is not the alliance partners. Nearly all int'l carriers have standard interline ticketing agreements for that purpose. Standard interlining comes at different prices and doesn't provide the same benefits such as FF miles and synched inventory.
The imbalance in the relationship is highlighted exactly by what Cranky rights here:
"One thing is clear. Delta can certainly benefit from Korean’s network, and I can understand why they’d want a joint venture. Meanwhile, Korean is huge in the US and should also want to benefit from Delta’s loyal base and connecting options. When both sides receive clear benefits from a relationship, you can only hope that they come to their sense and resolve their issues. But as we know, these fights don’t always end the way they should."
DL doesn't want to provide its customer lists and provide feed to another airline. Nor is it interested in supporting another airline's int'l network without that other carrier doing the same for DL's INTERNATIONAL network.
KE will be fine regardless... they are the Emirates of Northern Asia. But there aren't a whole lot of carriers that want to partner with Emirates nor does EK really want a true partner with much of anyone else. They want carriers to feed traffic to them, ala what B6 does for EK.
DL will be fine and will develop its Pacific network and use carriers with whom it can develop somewhat mutual business relationships. KE isn't interested in that.
And more significantly, in a couple years, DL could well be in a position where they are a true rival in terms of size and scope to UA in the top markets in Asia, including outside of Japan. Considering that NW handed DL a very strong presence in Japan but very little presence nonstop to the US from other points, DL has made great progress in developing its Asian network and the Yen crisis is only pushing DL further forward. The NRT hub is not dead and there are no signs that DL is pulling it down; DL is adding new China service every year. UA has no choice but to start adding secondary cities; from where else in the US are they going to add service to HKG, PEK, or PVG? DL can still add secondary service to China as well - but they are focused on the largest markets with plenty of west coast growth.
DL doesn't need KE to accomplish that. If KE can buy seats on other US carriers, which they probably can, they get what they want. No other alliance wants them or will take them.
DL and KE are both well-run companies. They've both thought this through.
