When will SWA go to Hawaii???

Here's an updated version after a study by the University of Virginia on the recent Southwest Effect, mainly up to 2017 and the big one when Dallas Love Field opened up. I think it will still happen in Hawaii but the numbers may not be as big. Now that Island Air filed for BK maybe we can get in there and take over some island hopping.


The case for the Southwest Effect today
 
Here's an updated version after a study by the University of Virginia on the recent Southwest Effect, mainly up to 2017 and the big one when Dallas Love Field opened up. I think it will still happen in Hawaii but the numbers may not be as big. Now that Island Air filed for BK maybe we can get in there and take over some island hopping.


The case for the Southwest Effect today
I predict they still do it regardless of the lawsuit, they have a plan, and we AMFA don't have deep enough pockets.
 
Update… inter-island service :)

Southwest Airlines exploring inter-island service in Hawaii expansion
10/26/2017
Dallas Business Journal OnlineWEB

Dallas-based Southwest Airlines is considering inter-island service as part of its Hawaiian expansion, but no final decisions have been made, CEO Gary Kelly said Thursday.

“Step one, of course, is getting from California to Hawaii,” Kelly said in a conference call with investors and media. “(Inter-island service) has been down our priority list, but we will have serious consideration of that.”

Even if low-cost carrier Southwest (NYSE: LUV) doesn't offer inter-island service initially, it will continuously re-evaluate it, Kelly said. No Federal Aviation Administration regulations or other factors prohibit Southwest from offering it, he said.

The carrier has built its business strategy on short-haul flights and quick turnaround times, and inter-island service lends itself to that business model.

On another topic, flights departing late at night and arriving early the next morning probably won't be included in the initial service from the mainland to Hawaii, but may be added later, Kelly also said in the conference call.

“We don't really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. I'm assuming at some point, we would want that capability… Whether we feel strongly that there is a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don't think we can judge that yet.”

Southwest announced Oct. 11 that it will launch service to Hawaii. Tickets go on sale in 2018. Southwest plans to announce more details later about ticket prices and when and where specifically in Hawaii the airline will fly.

But before flights start to Hawaii, Southwest must get approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for Extended Twin Operations, known in the airline industry as ETOPs. The certification is a regulatory requirement to operate over the water between the mainland and the Hawaiian islands.

The ETOPs approval process can take a year or more and includes special training for flight crews and additional equipment for the aircraft.

On Wednesday, Bret Oestreich, national director of the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, said the union will file for a cease and desist order that will “stop Southwest dead in its tracks” in regard to the Hawaii flights. AMFA claims that Southwest's recently announced plan to outsource ETOPS work related to its Hawaiian operations is a violation of the airline's contract with the union.

Airline management said in the conference call today that that the planned flights to Hawaii do not violate the current collective bargaining agreement
 
Update… inter-island service :)

Southwest Airlines exploring inter-island service in Hawaii expansion
10/26/2017
Dallas Business Journal OnlineWEB

Dallas-based Southwest Airlines is considering inter-island service as part of its Hawaiian expansion, but no final decisions have been made, CEO Gary Kelly said Thursday.

“Step one, of course, is getting from California to Hawaii,” Kelly said in a conference call with investors and media. “(Inter-island service) has been down our priority list, but we will have serious consideration of that.”

Even if low-cost carrier Southwest (NYSE: LUV) doesn't offer inter-island service initially, it will continuously re-evaluate it, Kelly said. No Federal Aviation Administration regulations or other factors prohibit Southwest from offering it, he said.

The carrier has built its business strategy on short-haul flights and quick turnaround times, and inter-island service lends itself to that business model.

On another topic, flights departing late at night and arriving early the next morning probably won't be included in the initial service from the mainland to Hawaii, but may be added later, Kelly also said in the conference call.

“We don't really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. I'm assuming at some point, we would want that capability… Whether we feel strongly that there is a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don't think we can judge that yet.”

Southwest announced Oct. 11 that it will launch service to Hawaii. Tickets go on sale in 2018. Southwest plans to announce more details later about ticket prices and when and where specifically in Hawaii the airline will fly.

But before flights start to Hawaii, Southwest must get approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for Extended Twin Operations, known in the airline industry as ETOPs. The certification is a regulatory requirement to operate over the water between the mainland and the Hawaiian islands.

The ETOPs approval process can take a year or more and includes special training for flight crews and additional equipment for the aircraft.

On Wednesday, Bret Oestreich, national director of the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, said the union will file for a cease and desist order that will “stop Southwest dead in its tracks” in regard to the Hawaii flights. AMFA claims that Southwest's recently announced plan to outsource ETOPS work related to its Hawaiian operations is a violation of the airline's contract with the union.

Airline management said in the conference call today that that the planned flights to Hawaii do not violate the current collective bargaining agreement
I don't see the stopping them dead in their tracks, probably trying to get some more mediation days.
 
Update… inter-island service :)

Southwest Airlines exploring inter-island service in Hawaii expansion
10/26/2017
Dallas Business Journal OnlineWEB

Dallas-based Southwest Airlines is considering inter-island service as part of its Hawaiian expansion, but no final decisions have been made, CEO Gary Kelly said Thursday.

“Step one, of course, is getting from California to Hawaii,” Kelly said in a conference call with investors and media. “(Inter-island service) has been down our priority list, but we will have serious consideration of that.”

Even if low-cost carrier Southwest (NYSE: LUV) doesn't offer inter-island service initially, it will continuously re-evaluate it, Kelly said. No Federal Aviation Administration regulations or other factors prohibit Southwest from offering it, he said.

The carrier has built its business strategy on short-haul flights and quick turnaround times, and inter-island service lends itself to that business model.

On another topic, flights departing late at night and arriving early the next morning probably won't be included in the initial service from the mainland to Hawaii, but may be added later, Kelly also said in the conference call.

“We don't really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. I'm assuming at some point, we would want that capability… Whether we feel strongly that there is a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don't think we can judge that yet.”

Southwest announced Oct. 11 that it will launch service to Hawaii. Tickets go on sale in 2018. Southwest plans to announce more details later about ticket prices and when and where specifically in Hawaii the airline will fly.

But before flights start to Hawaii, Southwest must get approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for Extended Twin Operations, known in the airline industry as ETOPs. The certification is a regulatory requirement to operate over the water between the mainland and the Hawaiian islands.

The ETOPs approval process can take a year or more and includes special training for flight crews and additional equipment for the aircraft.

On Wednesday, Bret Oestreich, national director of the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, said the union will file for a cease and desist order that will “stop Southwest dead in its tracks” in regard to the Hawaii flights. AMFA claims that Southwest's recently announced plan to outsource ETOPS work related to its Hawaiian operations is a violation of the airline's contract with the union.

Airline management said in the conference call today that that the planned flights to Hawaii do not violate the current collective bargaining agreement

Hi Sharon.
Of course the company will say that. They said the very same thing about the Pilots and the Max aircraft too and then the Pilots sued also and then they got a contract. This is merely the same thing. There is some language in our contract about it. I do like how AMFA is being pro-active and not waiting for the last minute. Hawaii is a good year to year and a half away for us. There is plenty of time to get this worked out in the contract before we actually start flying to Hawaii.
I really like the idea of SWA entertaining the island hoping. I am sure there is good demand for a jet aircraft to do island hopping instead of the puddle jumpers. Also with Island Air filing BK, maybe, and I'm not kidding here, SWA could move in and help them with financing, or even buy them out for their routes in Hawaii for island hopping. I will have to do some research on how big they are. It would be a quick way to kick off the inner island hopping right off the bat, then slowly move the 800's and Max's in to take over and sell off the puddle jumpers dirt cheap to someone who needs them. All sounds great in my head Sharon, just don't know how it looks on paper and the bottom line. I'm not at that pay scale yet.
 
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It's not all puddle jumpers. Hawaiian Airlines flies 737s and A321NEOs from U.S. stations and inter-island--according to their website.
If we wait the market will be developed and if the flights and cost are justified, maintenance might eventually be put there, like when they finally put maintenance in Denver, and what did we have there 200 flights a day with no maintenance, only contractors. Yes the lawsuit was filed, but our language is not there for ETOPS, so we will see what happens.
 
It's not all puddle jumpers. Hawaiian Airlines flies 737s and A321NEOs from U.S. stations and inter-island--according to their website.

You are correct. I was wrong indicating all of them were puddle jumpers. I guess I was mainly focussed on the Island Air that filed for BK same day we announced Hawaii. It would be nice to do a lot of inner island hopping. I honestly don't think we would hurt Hawaiian much, after all it's their home town.
You know, we don't have GEO pay in our contract, maybe it's time to get that in there to help offset the high cost of living at stations that have them.
 
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Did not realize that Hawaii had up to 80% of island hopping traffic before Island Air stopped operating this past weekend. Not surprised, but wondering what it might go to in the future before we ever get there? With only one competitor left for island hopping with 9 seat turbo props, I wouldn't call that real competitor. There is room for SWA, but will that room be there by the time they finally get there? Late 2018 or even in 2019 might be too long and possibly allow another airline that can jump quicker to start island hopping.


Hawaiian Airlines Tightens Its Grip on Interisland Flights
 
Well, it appears that Hawaiian Airlines is getting ready for SWA coming in. My opinion only here, but, it seems Hawaiian is looking at starting a new category of "basic economy". This will more than likely be the answer to the lower fares SWA will be bringing. Other airlines basic eco. doesn't allow access to the overhead bins. When planning a long trip to Hawaii, especially with females, the overhead bins are needed. It will get interesting to see what other type of changes Hawaiian will look at for the upcoming competition from SWA.

Hawaiian Airlines' challenge: 'Basic economy' class that doesn't insult passengers