My guess is in this order....
Frontier, too much presure from WN in DIA.
I said it first on this board....I just didn't know I would get this lucky to bang it out right on!
WHILE I'M SAD FOR THOSE AT FRONTIER WHO WILL BE FORCED INTO PAYCUTS, BENEFIT REDUCTIONS AND JOB LOSS, THIS WAS NOT ABOUT FEELINGS....IT WAS ABOUT BUSINESS AND WHO WOULD BE NEXT TO FILE/FOLD.
I took heat from others telling me, no look at this and look at that.....well the bottom line is that no matter how you want to spin it, nobody is going to give Frontier the funds to emerge from bankruptcy unless somehow they are lucky enough to spend three years in bankruptcy and ride out the recession in bankruptcy. Frontier got to where they are by luck, and a lot of shuck and jive. When did they place the order for the Airbus....hmmm after the United Airline Pilots pulled their summer of he!! in 2000. They were on the brink before the United Airline Pilots pulled their game playing, and due to WestPac raising the lease costs of the 737-300 and then moving from COS to DEN Frontier had another close call with death.
While Frontier didn't shut down today, I'm sure they will be either forced to shut down sometime during the fall, or winter unless Lufthansa pumps enough money into JetBlue for JetBlue to buy them, lock stock and barrell. But the question is there, is UA willing to give up TED to JetBlue for a handsome payout from Lufthansa as well. I'm sure the phone lines are busy between Chicago and Frankfurt today. Also, why did the CEO step down late last year unless he saw the writing on the wall. At $110 a barrel for oil, there is no way they can survive.
Also, IIRC Aloha filed Chapter 11, prior to converting to Chapter 7 a few days later and then grounding the fleet. And finally, the reason the bank is witholding the credit card funds I'm sure has nothing to do with the fact they are looking around and going, hmmm who may go next. We've gotten burned three times this month, lets not let it happen again. While the credit card companies may refund the money to their customers, they must wait in line to recieve pennies on the dollar at bankruptcy since their claim is not backed up by property, nor it is a perfected claim to go at a higher status than unsecured creditors, right above the stockholders.
After reviewing my list, and doing more research, I have to agree that MESA will be next, not Midwest. But then again it maybe a tie to who files first. If Midwest has operational disruptions similar to what AA has had this week or the credit card companies pull their money, I would have to divert back to Midwest since Mesa really has until the 18th of June on the convertable notes. Again, Midwest doesn't have much in the line of deep pockets unless Procter and Gamble took a gamble and kept them flying. Northwest would welcome decreased competition. I bet the Midwest people would really have wanted the AirTran deal if this were to come to fruition. I don't know that TPG and Northwest will keep them flying over this recession and the $110 a barrel for oil.
Well, those are my thoughts for today.