Worldtraveler where are you now?

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I have to tell you how flattered I am that you are crying for me less than a week after I leave the country for a little R&R.

Since you asked, I do have to tell you UA people while standing in line at the ATM on arrival at a particular continental European airport, I was confronted by a woman who had just flown in on UA from IAD and was fuming at how bad the service was. I'm sure you can't believe it but I'm thinking, "Can I not get away from this stuff even on vacation?" The woman went on and on about how rude the flight attendants were and how worn the plane was.... Bottom line was this woman did not have a good experience on UA and didn't hesitate to share it will a half dozen or more people in line who were listening.

Now, back to the issue which you seem to want me to address.

DL recognized over a year ago that this type of change of control activity is a risk when in bankruptcy. DL would also have not hesitated to sell out a year ago but it's obvious no one wants a sick company. DL has turned themselves around remarkably which is why they are now so attractive. They are growing and still have considerable ability to redeploy assets which is exactly what US is interested in - a growing revenue stream. Have you noticed that most of US' new int'l cities are cities where DL has been particularly strong? US knows where DL is making money.

As I said before I left, I believe this merger attempt will fail for several reasons.

1. Hostile takeovers in the airline industry never work. The fastest way to scare away investors is for them to see a bunch of disgruntled employees. I have seen DL employees wearing "Keep Delta My Delta" buttons. Sounds like DL employees are ready to fight to stay independent. And apparently their cmpany supports the fight in order for them to allow those buttons. DL employees may not be largely union but they are not dumb and they are not docile. US just gave them a cause for which they can stand shoulder to shoulder with management on so as to strength management-employee relations.

2. Regulatory issues - despite US' posturing, there is not legitimate way to reduce the overlap between US and DL still keep the company viable. US and DL are profitable on the east coast BECAUSE they serve key markets. If you start ripping out the best pieces of either airline in order to meet regulatory hurdles (which themselves could be a lengthy process scaring away creditor support), the company is not viable any longer. DL shouldn't look too far to find real experts that could testify to that effect.

3. Civic and governmental support. DL does a very good job of getting its communities behind it. The threat of Georgia losing its largest private employer (or a substantial portion of the jobs DL provides in Atlanta) is more than those politicians are willing to risk. Same thing can be said about Ohio and Utah. US hasn't been willing to say where it will cut service but it is obvious that lots of communities through the east coast will be impacted; just pulling out 2 RJ flights out of a combined 8-10 in some cities is enough to make alot of politicians quickly side w/ DL that this proposal is bad for the competitive landscape.

There is ABSOLUTELY no indication that this merger is needed. DL is not failing - unlike US a cuople years ago. Talking about pulling out capacity to make more profits may sound good to Wall Street but it is the last thing politicians and consumer groups want to hear. They will shoot this proposal down faster than a US lav truck driver heading for the parking lot at 11 pm in PHL. And the same principle will apply to every other non-distressed merger that is attempted in the industry.

The only group that really supports this deal is bondholders because they are slated to get a slightly better payout that what DL is EXPECTED to offer. Problem is that DL hasn't even proposed a reorg plan so it won't be hard for them to beat it. And there are significant DL creditors that could stand to lose alot - not exactly putting them in a position to support the deal.

And the fact still remains that DL has the exclusive right to file a POR through Feb 15. DL says they will file one in December, well in advance of the end of their period of exclusivity. Courts rarely allow a competing plan to be presented for a company that is successfully reorganizing. Even if the creditors want changes, DL will have the right to make those adjustments as long as that period of exclusivity remains in place. And as we saw with UAL, that process can drag on for 3 years.

So all of you can get your undies all worked up that DL will suffer some terrible fall but the indications are pretty strong that DL has every reason to expect that it will emerge from bankruptcy successfully as an independent, standalone airline as it said it would a year ago. The absurdity of US' proposal only diminishes the likelihood that someone else can come in and succeed at a future proposal.

Now if you ALL will excuse me I have a suitcase full of laundry to wash.
 
I have to tell you how flattered I am that you are crying for me less than a week after I leave the country for a little R&R.

Don't be flattered. Everyone was up in arms because of the unbelievable cop-out by Mr. DL.

Time will tell - but it does not look good for DL.

BTW-You have a long list of 'esplainin to do. Here are two you can sink your teeth in:

1. recent claim that DL was well ahead of NW in BK
2. UA posted "industry average" numbers in Q3

Both are incorrect and backed-up by actual facts. I'm happy to post your original claims and facts that prove you incorrect.

Anyone else want to add to the list?

Welcome home to your glass house.
 
Nice post. I too don't feel this merger has a chance. Not because of regulatory issues, but credtor issues. Who are the big guns on the creditor committe? The OEM's, Boeing, GE, lessors, etc. These guys stand nothing long term to gain by a merger that reduces capacity, i.e. reduces the demand for their products.
 
Nice post. I too don't feel this merger has a chance. Not because of regulatory issues, but credtor issues. Who are the big guns on the creditor committe? The OEM's, Boeing, GE, lessors, etc. These guys stand nothing long term to gain by a merger that reduces capacity, i.e. reduces the demand for their products.


lpbrian,

The "big guns" you cite on the Creditor Committee are actually minor players compared to the financial institutions.

Have a look at the list below. Boeing and Pratt (GE nowhere in sight) are nonfactors next to the banks and PBGC.

In any case, don't think for a second that Parker can't make Boeing and Pratt happy campers if he wishes.

There is already little doubt that the unsecured creditors will vote HELL YESSSS!!! Which way will the secured go? Smart Wall Street money seems to think they'll go for it, too.

Money talks and bull**** walks. Where have we heard that before? :lol:



Delta's Big Creditors

1. U.S. Bank National Association and U.S. Bank Trust National Association

• Owed: $4.4 billion :p

2. Air Line Pilots Association, International

• Owed: $3.1 billion

3. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

• Owed: $3 billion :D

4. Bank of New York

• Owed: $1.9 billion :D

5. Boeing Capital Corp.

• Owed: $36.5 million ;)

6. The Coca-Cola Co.

• Owed: $2.9 million

7. Pratt & Whitney

• Owed: $309,217 :huh:

8. MacKay Shields, LLC

• Owed: N/A

9. Fidelity Advisor Series II

• Owed: N/A

-- Source: Bankruptcy Services LLC
 
It depends on the pension, the old ALPA, IAM, AFA and non-union employees old DBP were turned over to the government and the PBGC recieved stock.

The ramp is part of the IAMNP so they have a DBP, the rest of the employees have a DCP and/or a 401K match.

It took a bankruptcy court for that to happen, why don't you post what Delta did to the pilots pension during chapter 11 and what they did to the rest of the employees a couple of years ago while not in Bankruptcy?

DBP=Defined Benefit Plan
DCP=Defined Contribution Plan
IAMNP=IAM National Pension Plan.
 
Anyone that has doubts about where I am or was is welcome to receive a copy of my hotel receipt if you forward a mailing address.

Lay off the new guy. He has contributed a great deal on other forums. If you'd shut your mouths long enough to listen, you might learn something from him.


United Chicago,
you will proven wrong now as you were 2 years ago when I was beating you up. Wanna give up now or shall I just keep pounding away. I'll be sure and quote you and your inaccurate prophecies when they are ALL clearly shown to be wrong.

Ralph,
it's nice of you to post a list of DL's creditors but you obviously don't know the difference between any of them. The amounts you listed are the amount of unsecured claims to date. Given that DL has not settled with most of its large creditors including the PBGC, the values are meaningless as of today.

And do you honestly think US will allow DALPA's claim against DL to stand? Hell no.

lpbrian accurately portrays exactly what is wrong w/ any merger proposal that could be put forward between two network carriers not facing liquidation - the only way to make them work for financial interests is to remove capacity. However, removing capacity is the last thing that communities, governments, consumer groups, and manufacturers want. The chance of any consolidation between network carriers happening when both parties are capable of standing on their own is pretty slim at best. Remember that the only reason the HP-US merger happened is because US could not have survived. Parker gets all excited about turning another deal while failing to admit that there isn't a single airline in the industry that is not capable of continuing to exist on its own.

There are no mergers needed in the industry and none will happen.

Period. I'll be sure and let you know when the climate changes.
 
United Chicago,
you will proven wrong now as you were 2 years ago when I was beating you up. Wanna give up now or shall I just keep pounding away. I'll be sure and quote you and your inaccurate prophecies when they are ALL clearly shown to be wrong.

What exactly did I say 2 years ago that I was proven wrong by you? Please - do post some links here so I can accurately respond.

Like I've said a few times now WT - this industry is one big glass house and I'd be careful if I were you. You're setting yourself up for a lot of crowe if you continue to speak with such "authority".

So - I'm waiting - please post the links where you "beat me up" and when you proved me wrong.
 
What exactly did I say 2 years ago that I was proven wrong by you? Please - do post some links here so I can accurately respond.

Like I've said a few times now WT - this industry is one big glass house and I'd be careful if I were you. You're setting yourself up for a lot of crowe if you continue to speak with such "authority".

So - I'm waiting - please post the links where you "beat me up" and when you proved me wrong.
:shock: :eek: :eek: :eek: :rolleyes: Beautifully said. Is it just me or does anyone else believe this poster is a DELDA mgmt person? He is DRUNK with DELDA kool-aid!!!! Poor pathetic man!
 
:shock: :eek: :eek: :eek: :rolleyes: Beautifully said. Is it just me or does anyone else believe this poster is a DELDA mgmt person? He is DRUNK with DELDA kool-aid!!!! Poor pathetic man!

I'm ready to pay for him to go on another vacation...this man is beyond help. He's convinced himself with his own BS. It was so nice when he was gone. I can't beleieve anyone could drink this much Gelta Kool-Aid. He's sick! These kinds of people LOVE to hear themselves talk... ;)
 
WT,

Just to establish where you have now moved the goalposts, *IF* LCC (or anyone else) succeeds in taking over DL, would you consider that a success or a failure for DL?

If your answer is "success," if we were to wind back the clock three years and UA had been the target of a hostile takeover while in BK, would you have acknowledged that that was a success for UA, or would you have been criticizing UA and pointing out how that was yet another failure of UA management?

Since you are now trumpeting that there will be no acquisition, if there is one will you come on here and say, "I, WorldTraveler, was wrong"? Or will you (A) conveniently disappear on another vacation; (B) conveniently change your position and spin it into a good thing for DL; © spin it into "it wasn't really an acquisition"; (D) spin it into the "all part of DL's plan to take over the world" theme?
 
Since you are now trumpeting that there will be no acquisition, if there is one will you come on here and say, "I, WorldTraveler, was wrong"? Or will you (A) conveniently disappear on another vacation; (B) conveniently change your position and spin it into a good thing for DL; © spin it into "it wasn't really an acquisition"; (D) spin it into the "all part of DL's plan to take over the world" theme?

Spin is the key word. Remember when he came over to the UA board and praised everyone when UA's exit was imminent and DL was getting ready to enter?

Or most recently when he came over to post UA's Q3 numbers.

When he's on the verge of being proven wrong or if actual FACTS run counter to his claims, he tries to control the message by being pre-emptive.

Is WT really Karl Rove?!

United Chicago,
you will proven wrong now as you were 2 years ago when I was beating you up. Wanna give up now or shall I just keep pounding away. I'll be sure and quote you and your inaccurate prophecies when they are ALL clearly shown to be wrong.

Still waiting for proof WT...
 
I have to tell you how flattered I am that you are crying for me less than a week after I leave the country for a little R&R.
If you were really out of the country, and DL had made a hostile takeover of NW or orchestrated a merger with UA or CO or something you would have found a way to come on here and tell us how great DL is and how smart they are for making the deal and how it would lead to them ruling the world.
 
It depends on the pension, the old ALPA, IAM, AFA and non-union employees old DBP were turned over to the government and the PBGC recieved stock.

The ramp is part of the IAMNP so they have a DBP, the rest of the employees have a DCP and/or a 401K match.

It took a bankruptcy court for that to happen, why don't you post what Delta did to the pilots pension during chapter 11 and what they did to the rest of the employees a couple of years ago while not in Bankruptcy?

DBP=Defined Benefit Plan
DCP=Defined Contribution Plan
IAMNP=IAM National Pension Plan.

Pilot's pension was turned over to PBGC, it was in the latest round of contract negotiations that they agreed to allow it too happen...In turn for the agreement Delta has promised ALPA monies to assist in making up the difference..

The rest of the employees pensions were frozen - current retirees and those that will retire before a certain date will still receive benefits from the old defined benefit plan, for those that will retire after a certain date the retirements were converted to a cash balance plan with company match - similar to the new FedEx retirement plan...the pension reform that recently passed congress will give Delta the ability to keep ground employees pensions without turning them over to the PBGC.
 
I guess you dont understand when the pension is frozen you dont gain anymore money from it, you are locked in at the current rates.
 
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