3rd try for Delta and China

[FA Mikey]

Delta Air Lines is launching another bid for China flights, this time applying for government permission to serve Shanghai nonstop from Atlanta starting in 2008.

The Atlanta carrier is expected to tout its China plans at a news conference today with Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin.

The flights would connect the "commercial and financial center of the world's largest country with Delta's expansive route hub at Atlanta-Hartsfield, the largest hub in the world," the carrier says in an application to be filed today with the U.S. Department of Transportation.

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[FWAAA]

Atlanta to China is as big a loser as Dallas to China. The 2005 award decision (where CO and AA were awarded their new frequencies) made it very plane that Delta's application was a nonstarter. Same thing is gonna happen this time.

My prediction is that CO wins with its re-application of EWR-PVG, although AA could be competitive by applying for ORD-PEK.

 

[Cosmo]

Atlanta to China is as big a loser as Dallas to China. The 2005 award decision (where CO and AA were awarded their new frequencies) made it very plane that Delta's application was a nonstarter. Same thing is gonna happen this time.

My prediction is that CO wins with its re-application of EWR-PVG, although AA could be competitive by applying for ORD-PEK.

FWAAA:

I would generally agree with your assessment above, although the DOT might view the main issue as whether it's better to 1.) designate another carrier (DL or perhaps HA?) or 2.) authorize CO to serve the larger -- by far -- EWR-PVG market. Of course, I have no idea which option the DOT might choose. And if AA applied for LAX-PVG, that might make things even more interesting. Plus I suppose we'll see a perfunctory SFO-CAN bid from UA, as well as a reprise of NW's absolutely hopeless DTW-PVG request.

BTW, you can read Delta's press release about its ATL-PVG application here. And given how the past two U.S.-China route cases at the DOT have gone on longer than anyone expected, causing CO and now UA to have very short periods of time in which to market and start their new services, IMHO it would be wise for the DOT to start the next China route case shortly after the current case ends, especially if there is the added complication of cargo frequencies being contested as well as the passenger frequencies.

 

[metopower]

FWAAA:

I would generally agree with your assessment above, although the DOT might view the main issue as whether it's better to 1.) designate another carrier (DL or perhaps HA?) or 2.) authorize CO to serve the larger -- by far -- EWR-PVG market. Of course, I have no idea which option the DOT might choose. And if AA applied for LAX-PVG, that might make things even more interesting. Plus I suppose we'll see a perfunctory SFO-CAN bid from UA, as well as a reprise of NW's absolutely hopeless DTW-PVG request.

BTW, you can read Delta's press release about its ATL-PVG application here. And given how the past two U.S.-China route cases at the DOT have gone on longer than anyone expected, causing CO and now UA to have very short periods of time in which to market and start their new services, IMHO it would be wise for the DOT to start the next China route case shortly after the current case ends, especially if there is the added complication of cargo frequencies being contested as well as the passenger frequencies.

If I'm not mistaken on this round of route awards only careers that do not have China frequentcy can apply. North American is the only non cargo airline that has applyed. Also Evergreen had authority but sold it.So there is questions as to if they can reapply.The 2007 route award was for airlines that had service to China allready.2008 is for airlines that do not have rights.

 

[Cosmo]

If I'm not mistaken on this round of route awards only careers that do not have China frequentcy can apply. North American is the only non cargo airline that has applyed. Also Evergreen had authority but sold it.So there is questions as to if they can reapply.The 2007 route award was for airlines that had service to China allready.2008 is for airlines that do not have rights.

Sorry, but you are mistaken, at least in part, because incumbent carriers can apply for a route award in any year in which there is a DOT route case. While you're right that "the 2007 route award was for airlines that had service to China already", the 2008 route award is, in fact, open to any carrier, incumbent and non-incumbent alike. That's why DL, a non-incumbent, has already applied for ATL-PVG rights starting in March 2008. And if DL doesn't get the 2008 award, it will have to wait until 2010 to try again (unless the terms of the U.S.-China bilateral agreement are changed), while incumbents can apply again for a 2009 route award.

 

[FWAAA]

If I'm not mistaken on this round of route awards only careers that do not have China frequentcy can apply. North American is the only non cargo airline that has applyed. Also Evergreen had authority but sold it.So there is questions as to if they can reapply.The 2007 route award was for airlines that had service to China allready.2008 is for airlines that do not have rights.

You are mistaken.

All airlines will be permitted to apply for the 2008 frequencies, just like the 2005 and 2006 awards. Only the 2007 awards (and the pre-2005) were limited to incumbents.

Delta's "ATL is the center of the USA-China universe" arguments won't go any further than they did two years ago.

 

[WorldTraveler]

uh come on. Just because AA's pilots through a temper tantrum that cost AA the route doesn't mean that other airlines should lose too.

There is no east coast-Shanghai US carrier service and ATL is very well positioned to capture traffic flows from Asia to Latin America - something no other gateway can do as well.

DL has pretty well been told the 2008 designation is theirs unless they screw up. Every other airline that wants to fly to China (except for from Hawaii which isn't a good use of limited access routes) has one as does every region except for the southwest and southeast. Since AA's pilots are holding AA's int'l growth hostage right now, DL can do anything they want.

Before AA can figure out their next move, DL will have added ATLICN, ATLPVG, ATLHKG, ATLTPE, ATLBOM, ATLDEL, and ATLDXB.

 

[whlinder]

There is no east coast-Shanghai US carrier service and ATL is very well positioned to capture traffic flows from Asia to Latin America - something no other gateway can do as well.

That might well be true but the DOT doesn't care about Latin America, unless we decide to start some more wars between now and then.

DL has pretty well been told the 2008 designation is theirs unless they screw up. Every other airline that wants to fly to China (except for from Hawaii which isn't a good use of limited access routes) has one as does every region except for the southwest and southeast. Since AA's pilots are holding AA's int'l growth hostage right now, DL can do anything they want.

Last I checked IAD was in the commonwealth of Virginia. You know, the durty South.

Before AA can figure out their next move, DL will have added ATLICN, ATLPVG, ATLHKG, ATLTPE, ATLBOM, ATLDEL, and ATLDXB.

Someone save this post. ATL-TPE? LOL. UA can't even fly SFO-TPE profitably.

I'm personally surprised that DL went for ATL-PVG again instead of perhaps JFK-PVG, which would essentially eliminate CO from contention (new entrant trumping existing carrier with China frequencies).

And who knows, maybe in 2 weeks, the application will be changed by one Doug Parker to PHX-PVG.

Another thought that has crossed my mind is that perhaps with UA winning the latest round, they will push back any merger announcements for a year to see who ends up winning in 2008 (DL or CO), lest they prevent the DOT from handing out frequencies to their merger partner.

 

[Fly]

By 2008, DL may no longer exist. (sort of how WT has vanished from this board)

I'm using up my miles on them now!!!!

 

[Bear96]

There is no east coast-Shanghai US carrier service and ATL is very well positioned to capture traffic flows from Asia to Latin America - something no other gateway can do as well.

Should the USDOT base decisions on improved service to Latin America?

Since AA's pilots are holding AA's int'l growth hostage right now, DL can do anything they want.

Yeah, if you ingore that annoying insolvency problem.

BTW, WT, it's now 2007. Is DL still in BK? Wow. It's been a loooooooooong time. Time sure flies, doesn't it?

 

[gaucho99]

It seems to me that a flight to China would be better served from a west coast hub. Flying out of ATL, you will get connecting traffic from the eastern U.S. but nobody is going to take this route from lax to atl then to China. By departing from the west coast, you bring in a much bigger market.

 

[luv2fly]

You are mistaken.


Delta's "ATL is the center of the USA-China universe" arguments won't go any further than they did two years ago.

Some analysts don't think so.
Delta is favorite to win new route.

 

[whlinder]

Some analysts don't think so.
Delta is favorite to win new route.

No one else has even applied yet!

 

[luv2fly]

No one else has even applied yet!

I am sure the writer understands that other airlines will apply. That should have been easily perceived.

 

[FWAAA]

Some analysts don't think so.
Delta is favorite to win new route.

So Ted Reed says that DL is the odds on favorite and the only evidence he has to back up that expert opinion is the fact that DL is the only huge USA carrier without access to China and that ATL is such a gigantic hub.

To Ted Reed, I say: BFD. Did you even read the 2005 DoT award decision, Mr Reed?

Ho Hum. Like I posted the other day, the USDoT completely analyzed the DL/ATL situation two years ago - and the most charitable reading of the decision reasonably leads to the conclusion that ATL is not gonna win. Too little China O&D from ATL and too much backtracking for ATL connections (compared to other major hubs).

Changing the China destination from PEK to PVG isn't gonna change that outcome, IMO.