Boeing feeling bullish about Dreamliner

[andyperkins]

From ATW Online...
Wednesday March 29, 2006
Boeing is predicting "another phenomenal year" for the 787 in 2006, with Mike Bair, VP and GM of the Dreamliner program, telling ATWOnline that there are another 30 offers out to airlines for 500 787s on top of the 28 customers who have committed to 386 aircraft.

"We thought the demand might slow up a bit, but 2006 looks like a great year," Bair said. Boeing's 787 production is committed through 2011, but some of those slots are assigned to carriers that have not yet announced orders. The company is examining a ramp-up in production and a decision is expected mid-year. Earlier this month, Alenia confirmed it had been asked to look at an increase from seven to 10 aircraft per month.

Concerning the 787-10, Bair revealed that the model will have a range of 7,500 nm., which "meets Emirates' requirements." The carrier is expected to announce an order for 50 dash 10s at the Farnborough Air Show in July. Bair told ATWOnline that the dash 10 will be a simple payload-for-range trade with an MTOW of 540,000 lb. He said the range may change slightly as the airframer and key airlines finalize the exact stretch. It may be "40, 50 or 60 seats bigger" than the dash 9, he said.

He also had a warning for Airbus, saying the dash 10's seat-mile costs are "almost unbelievable." Yesterday this website revealed that the version will have lower cash operating costs and significantly lower fuel burn per seat than the A380.

The 787-8 will fly "late summer in 2007" and be delivered "in early summer 2008," according to Bair. The test program will include six aircraft and be one of the tightest ever for a Boeing or Douglas jet.

He said 787 production, which is the world's largest industrial program, is proceeding "remarkably smoothly" at 132 sites around the globe. Rolls-Royce and General Electric offer engines for the aircraft that have run at more than 80,000 lb. thrust and are operating flawlessly, he noted. The Trent 1000 and GEnx will be certified up to 75,000 lb.

by Geoffrey Thomas

another 30 offers out to airlines for 500 787s on top of the 28 customers who have committed to 386 aircraft.

I wonder if US Airways is in the mix?

 

[flyingcat]

USAirways is committed for the time being to the 350. However there are numerous reasons to go with or against Boeing.

Airbus did provide money for the merger in exchange for a commitment to continue deliveries (330) and place an order for the 350.

DP could give the money back and rip up the contract. It would be difficult but not impossible.

However the name of the game in this industry is not having the hottest aircraft but acquiring it at a price that it makes the most money over its lifetime.

Suppose Airbus realizes that it has a loser on its hand and throws in a major discount and extra support to move the 350. Dont forget the 340-600HGW order that Emirates might dump any day now. As long as the incentives match the efficiency savings that the 787 has in its airline service than it becomes moot which aircraft US purchases.

Other factors include the fact that the 787 may be a victim of success. US can get delivery slots for the 350 far sooner than the 787. This means big things especially when it sceoms to the types of routes the aircraft is built for, thin long haul routes, where being first can mean a lot.

One last thing, when the 350 order was placed it was said that as part of the deal the 350 would have to match certain performance guarantees. Only US and Airbus know what they are. But if US made sure it was based on parity with the 787 than they may have the best decision in US history.

Perhaps DP learned a trick from Richard Branson only this time it did not involve a watch.

 

[flyingcat]

GECAS and ILFC have come out today in asking Airbus to do better with the 350 in order to counter the 787. Two key points are cruising speed and cabin size. At this rate US might be getting a better deal than they thought. I am curious though if management would be interested in the EK 340's that might be cancelled.

Airbus better listen since ILFC is their largest customer. Udvar-Hazy did not become a billionaire by not knowing which way the airline future was heading.

 

[Flying Titan]

Cat -
Nice post. I believe that US will still end up with the A350, but I would not be surprised if there is ongoing contact between US and Boeing about the 787. Ultimately, I think that Airbus will do what it has to do to undercut Boeing on overall costs to keep this order.

I can't imagine a more embarrasing order for Airbus to lose. A switch by US would essentially send the message that the A350 can't compete with the 787 even by buying the customer with cash up front.

 

[FM2436]

I'll bet all Boeing has to do is look at the network TV news channels and see everyone under the age of 26 rioting in the street of Paris because the Socialist Government is now telling them they are no longer guaranteed a job for life.

 

[Phantom Fixer]

Boeings confidence in the 787 must be soaring. Yesterday I saw an announcement on TV about the Dreamliner coming in a Stretched Variant already.

I'd love to see U tell Airbus to put the A350 where the sun doesn't shine...and I don't mean Pittsburgh.

Maybe U can make enough money between now and then to buy its way out of the A350 orders. I'd like to think so anyway.

 

[TechBoy]

Boeings confidence in the 787 must be soaring. Yesterday I saw an announcement on TV about the Dreamliner coming in a Stretched Variant already.

I'd love to see U tell Airbus to put the A350 where the sun doesn't shine...and I don't mean Pittsburgh.

Maybe U can make enough money between now and then to buy its way out of the A350 orders. I'd like to think so anyway.

Let's face it folks, the prices for the Airbus financing to exit BK was the A350. Airbus would be crazy to let US out of that deal, unless US agreed to trade the order for a very large number of narrowbodies. Even then, Airbus really needs an American operator of the A350 and US appears to be the only viable candidate, since NW has already chosen the 787.

The big open question for US is whether they choose to accelerate some of their 330 orders. It's clearly too early for that decision right now, but if the international expansion is successful, it may make sense to expand the widebody fleet a bit. On the other hand, DL is increasing its transatlantic capacity and has the lift to add much more.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Oops - sorry folks, should have finished reading the new stuff before posting. The article is covered here.

Jim

 

[bigbusboy]

Even though Airbus is a big financier of LCC, they will do what ever it takes to keep LCC happy. We are Airbus's only curent and probably future US customer for the A350. Should Airbus lose our contract, it would through the A350 program into serious trouble....if it's not there already.

 

[Phantom Fixer]

Even though Airbus is a big financier of LCC, they will do what ever it takes to keep LCC happy. We are Airbus's only curent and probably future US customer for the A350. Should Airbus lose our contract, it would through the A350 program into serious trouble....if it's not there already.

The above statement is EXACTLY why US needs to steer clear of this Aircraft. No other US Based Operators to borrow or buy from...and weak support that Airbus has all to often been noted for.

Sure..US got out of BK based on orders for the A350...but lets hope those options can be converted to more Narrow Bodies like we are already using. In the end..Money is Money regardless how we elect to spend it. My money would be on swapping the orders to more A319/320's and going great guns on the 787. I'm sure GECAS or whomever would be willing to negotiate with us now.

 

[bigbusboy]

Good point phantom. It's going to be very interesting. The A320 family seems to be serving LCC quite well. But that's about it. The A330 is at it's max with us right now. PHL/FCO is it's max range and it's always weight restricted. Athens has always been rumored as a good new destination for us. But the A330 won't make it. We also need something that will go from PHX/LAS to Europe. Maybe our future $$$ with Airbus should be spent on the A320 family. And convert widebody flying to 777s or 787s.

 

[Flying Titan]

I agree that the A320 family seems to be serving US well and that the 787 looks like it will be a superior plane to the A330 or A350, but given the financial relationship with Airbus, I just don't think Boeing widebodies are likely. Other than the range issues, have there been other problems with the A330? Isn't added range the reason why US has 330-200s on order vs. more 330-300s? Wouldn't the -200 solve the western-hub-to-Europe problem?

 

[bigbusboy]

Don't know the stats on the A330-200, but I hear pilots say it's range is much longer. I'm almost certain US does not have any A330-200s on order anymore. I think they were converted to A350 orders for 2010-2011 deliveries.

 

[700UW]

US still has 10 A330-200s on order I believe.

 

[Flying Titan]

I took a minute and went to the Airbus website. They still show US with 10 A330-200s on order and 20 A350-800s on order. The site says the information was last updated 2/28/06. I'm not sure if its still accurate, but I don't recall seeing anything that supercedes that info.

As for the max. range listed -
A330-200 - 6,750nm
A350-800 - 8,800nm

I believe those numbers are sufficient for ops from western US hubs to western Europe with both aircraft. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Assuming Airbus makes the appropriate pricing adjustments to make the plane cost competitive, and there aren't other operational problems, then I don't see why US wouldn't stick with the agreement, even though the 787 looks like it will be a better plane than either of these. After all, it was Airbus who was there when US needed cash to survive.