"DL may see regional airline trends better than AA and UA"

[WorldTraveler]

The Boyd group thinks DL is ahead of AA and UA in seeing the trend with regional carrier capacity.

AA and UA are actively bringing in more 76-seat units to lease to their outsourced lift providers. On the other side, there is a very strong indication that Delta is not following the fleet and operator strategies seen at AA and United. Delta may see the future more clearly than the competition.

Today, with over 50% of United and American flights operated by small lift providers, its no longer just a matter of regional flying. Its simply use of smaller units of capacity where they make economic sense.

See more at: http://aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2/#sthash.WMUhUiHl.dpuf

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Simple solution.  Have AA do More business with Eagle carriers flying E-Jets ( 70 - 75 - 90 - 95's)
The (late) US has/had a ton of them, so just add More. I may be wrong, but I don't think  Del - DUH  has a single E-Jet (70's on up) !
It's been proven Many times that passenger LOVE them over all those ' Needle-nosed '    POS that DL (and yes for the time being) that AA use.

 

[WorldTraveler]

you are indeed wrong...

 

[Kev3188]

Bears--

DL uses E170's & 75's both. They are flown by Compass & Shuttle America. In fact, the CP flying was part of our scope language on the ramp at NW...

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Bears--

DL uses E170's & 75's both. They are flown by Compass & Shuttle America. In fact, the CP flying was part of our scope language on the ramp at NW...

 
Thanx Kev for the correction.
I was WRONG.
My 'bad' !

 

[topDawg]

Simple solution.  Have AA do More business with Eagle carriers flying E-Jets ( 70 - 75 - 90 - 95's)
The (late) US has/had a ton of them, so just add More. I may be wrong, but I don't think  Del - DUH  has a single E-Jet (70's on up) !
It's been proven Many times that passenger LOVE them over all those ' Needle-nosed '    POS that DL (and yes for the time being) that AA use.

Man you just don't get how google works eh? 
 
Delta has plenty of e-jets. 
 
and AA can give as much flying to MQ as they want, they are still going to have a hard time staffing them like Republic and SkyWest. All the RJ carriers now pretty much have turds for contracts. Not worth it to work for any of them. 

 

[commavia]

and AA can give as much flying to MQ as they want, they are still going to have a hard time staffing them like Republic and SkyWest.

 
I will be interested to see if that turns out to be true, given that AA has now effectively created multiple "farm teams" to funnel pilots to mainline through flow agreements.  PSA, Envoy, etc. are obviously heavily leveraging and promoting this flow as a recruiting tool.

 

[FWAAA]

and AA can give as much flying to MQ as they want, they are still going to have a hard time staffing them like Republic and SkyWest. All the RJ carriers now pretty much have turds for contracts. Not worth it to work for any of them.

Unlike Republic and some other carriers, the Envoy pilots overwhelmingly ratified their Parker-demanded concessionary contract in December (third time was the charm), so flying for Envoy may not suck as much as flying at Republic or other carriers that have not ratified a contract lately.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/12/envoy-air-pilots-approve-proposed-contract.html/
 

I will be interested to see if that turns out to be true, given that AA has now effectively created multiple "farm teams" to funnel pilots to mainline through flow agreements.  PSA, Envoy, etc. are obviously heavily leveraging and promoting this flow as a recruiting tool.

I agree. In addition to your good points, the new Envoy contract gives Envoy 40 new E-175s with up to 90 additional if AA exercises its options, and I don't see Envoy having the staffing troubles that Republic and others are experiencing, especially since Envoy is retiring so many of the 44-seat ERJ140s. All 37-seaters were retired in 2012-13 and by the end of 2015, only 13 of the 44 seaters will remain at Envoy, and they'll be retired in the first half of 2016. The bottom line is that Envoy is retiring smaller planes with lower payrates and replacing them with 76-seaters.

If Envoy were trying to grow, then I'd probably agree with topDawg that it might not work out. But Envoy has been in shrinking mode since the bankruptcy, and AA said before the contract was ratified that Envoy's 47 CRJ-700s were going to be transferred to another operator. That should free up additional Envoy pilots to fly the new E-175s, unless the CRJ-700 transfer was simply a negotiating threat by AA and AA has no intention of following thru on that threat.

As the E-175s are delivered to Envoy, I expect that the ERJ-145 retirements will begin (legacy AA's 50-seaters). So far, all 118 of them are still flying, as the early focus was on retiring the 37 and now 44 seaters.

If the 47 CRJ-700s are goners, their absence and the retirement of the 44-seaters has to have provided some slack that will permit Envoy to staff the E-175s.

 

[topDawg]

I will be interested to see if that turns out to be true, given that AA has now effectively created multiple "farm teams" to funnel pilots to mainline through flow agreements.  PSA, Envoy, etc. are obviously heavily leveraging and promoting this flow as a recruiting tool.

plenty of airlines have flows. 
CP and 9E have Delta flows, 9E still can't get pilots. Was was originally going to keep 30-40 CRJs at 9E but can't staff them. Thus the re-upped the S5/RP contract for E45s which has caused an even larger staffing problem at RH.
 
Also last i heard MQ and 9E were both offering a pretty large signing bonus to get people in the door.  
 

Unlike Republic and some other carriers, the Envoy pilots overwhelmingly ratified their Parker-demanded concessionary contract in December (third time was the charm), so flying for Envoy may not suck as much as flying at Republic or other carriers that have not ratified a contract lately.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/12/envoy-air-pilots-approve-proposed-contract.html/

 HA! overwhelmingly after dumping it 2 times before. 

Man you sure you don't work for ALPA or the IAM? (just kidding........sortta) 

I agree. In addition to your good points, the new Envoy contract gives Envoy 40 new E-175s with up to 90 additional if AA exercises its options, and I don't see Envoy having the staffing troubles that Republic and others are experiencing, especially since Envoy is retiring so many of the 44-seat ERJ140s. All 37-seaters were retired in 2012-13 and by the end of 2015, only 13 of the 44 seaters will remain at Envoy, and they'll be retired in the first half of 2016. The bottom line is that Envoy is retiring smaller planes with lower payrates and replacing them with 76-seaters.

If Envoy were trying to grow, then I'd probably agree with topDawg that it might not work out. But Envoy has been in shrinking mode since the bankruptcy, and AA said before the contract was ratified that Envoy's 47 CRJ-700s were going to be transferred to another operator. That should free up additional Envoy pilots to fly the new E-175s, unless the CRJ-700 transfer was simply a negotiating threat by AA and AA has no intention of following thru on that threat.

As the E-175s are delivered to Envoy, I expect that the ERJ-145 retirements will begin (legacy AA's 50-seaters). So far, all 118 of them are still flying, as the early focus was on retiring the 37 and now 44 seaters.

If the 47 CRJ-700s are goners, their absence and the retirement of the 44-seaters has to have provided some slack that will permit Envoy to staff the E-175s.

I would like to point out that nhbb said grow MQ even more which is why i said what I said
 
but having said that, MQ does have some help because they are parking jets left and right, but at some point that is going to stop and the staffing issues will become even more of an issue for them. 
 
and I think PSA is getting the CR7s no?

 

[commavia]

plenty of airlines have flows. 
CP and 9E have Delta flows, 9E still can't get pilots. Was was originally going to keep 30-40 CRJs at 9E but can't staff them. Thus the re-upped the S5/RP contract for E45s which has caused an even larger staffing problem at RH.
 
Also last i heard MQ and 9E were both offering a pretty large signing bonus to get people in the door.  

 
And plenty of regional carriers don't have flows.
 
Personally, I suspect that once the inevitable rationalization and consolidation occurs among the regional operators, and as the number of regional jets in the U.S. continues to steadily decline, and as pay steadily rises overall in the pilot profession, the market will naturally stabalize and it will become less challenging for airlines to staff.  That certainly doesn't mean that there won't be winners and loses (and, for the record, I think the airlines with clear flows will generally be among the winners), and it also certainly doesn't mean that airlines won't still have to pay "pretty large signing bonus[es]" to get people in the door.
 
Again - we'll see.

 

[topDawg]

And plenty of regional carriers don't have flows.

flows? no 
but if they are an ALPA carrier then they have a good shot of getting a job at Delta. IIRC 35% of Delta's new hire classes must come from ALPA carriers. (Meto if you are around and know better please correct me. Way to lazy to go digging in the contract) 
 
 

Personally, I suspect that once the inevitable rationalization and consolidation occurs among the regional operators, and as the number of regional jets in the U.S. continues to steadily decline, and as pay steadily rises overall in the pilot profession, the market will naturally stabalize and it will become less challenging for airlines to staff.  That certainly doesn't mean that there won't be winners and loses (and, for the record, I think the airlines with clear flows will generally be among the winners), and it also certainly doesn't mean that airlines won't still have to pay "pretty large signing bonus[es]" to get people in the door.
 
Again - we'll see.

I agree with all of that.
I think over time the problem will fix itself. I also think AA and UA will do like Delta has done and end up with a sizable fleet of 100 seat jets. 
 
edit can't spell. 

 

[commavia]

flows? no 
but if they are an ALPA carrier then they have a good shot of getting a job at Delta.

 
"Good shot" isn't the same as a structured flow, though - or at least it doesn't seem like it would be treated the same way by many prospective pilots considering where to start out.
 

I think over time the problem will fix itself. I also think AA and UA will do like Delta has done and end up with a sizable fleet of 100 seat jets. 

 
Maybe.  We'll see.

 

[metopower]

flows? no 
but if they are an ALPA carrier then they have a good shot of getting a job at Delta. IIRC 35% of Delta's new hire classes must come from ALPA carriers. (Meto if you are around and know better please contract me.

As far as I know alpa affiliation is not considered by the panel. And I know many of them. DL has no flow but does have a preferential interview for some of the former nw carriers. Compass has some of their pilots that are guaranteed to get jobs at DL but I believe that they are already here now.

 

[topDawg]

flows? no 
but if they are an ALPA carrier then they have a good shot of getting a job at Delta. IIRC 35% of Delta's new hire classes must come from ALPA carriers. (Meto if you are around and know better please correct* me.

As far as I know alpa affiliation is not considered by the panel. And I know many of them.

Roger. I could have sworn the last contract had an ALPA provision in it. 

 

[FWAAA]

HA! overwhelmingly after dumping it 2 times before. 

Man you sure you don't work for ALPA or the IAM? (just kidding........sortta)

Ratified 75% to 25% with ninety-some percent voting.
 

I would like to point out that nhbb said grow MQ even more which is why i said what I said
 
but having said that, MQ does have some help because they are parking jets left and right, but at some point that is going to stop and the staffing issues will become even more of an issue for them. 
 
and I think PSA is getting the CR7s no?

I didn't notice what Bears posted - it's a good thing that MQ is parking more planes than it's getting, as pilots were bailing from MQ during the time that Parker was demanding additional concessions on top of the bankruptcy contract and AA began the winding down of MQ.

I completely agree that attracting any new candidates to MQ is going to be a big challenge unless they see a realistic chance of flying for AA before they're old and gray.

You may be right about PSA getting the CRJ-700s. I saw an article where Andrea Ahles of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram said that Piedmont was going to get them, but that didn't make much sense to me, since Piedmont is all Dash 8 and hasn't announced a retirement schedule for them - other than one or two each of the past couple of years. PSA flies nothing but CRJs, so that sounds more plausible. In mid-2014, management said the CRJ-700 transfers would begin in mid-2015 and be complete by end of 2016 - but I don't know if they ever started.
 

I agree with all of that.
I think over time the problem will fix itself. I also think AA and UA will do like Delta has done and end up with a sizable fleet of 100 seat jets.

I agree. Maybe E-195s or some other Embraer product. I've been hearing that the C-series is behind schedule and over-budget. UA and AA are at a disadvantage because DL has basically cornered the market on just about every 717 ever built, and 100 to 150 E-195s is going to be a very expensive purchase. Wonder if it would be cheaper to make a deal with the mainline pilots to reconfigure the E-175s to something like 6F/76Y and have a huge fleet of 82-seaters?