East Over 60 Pilots as of November

[Keroseneuser]

Company sent out list for bidding purposes to avoid 60 on 60 intl. crews.

As of November 2011 over age 60 pilots on East side.

Captains: 365
F/O's: 117

Looking at the sen list the numbers should start to add another 190 to 240 per year for next 5 years total age 60 pilots. With about the same ratio of Capt. to F/O as listed above. Age 65 retirements will start last quarter of next year.

As far as I can tell this is only the "Active" over 60 group since it is broken down by base and equipment. Does not look like it includes those out of medical or other that wont be bidding. Last number I saw was in the 2800 total active pilots on the east. 3400 ish total.

 

[crazystnic]

Company sent out list for bidding purposes to avoid 60 on 60 intl. crews.

As of November 2011 over age 60 pilots on East side.

Captains: 365
F/O's: 117

Looking at the sen list the numbers should start to add another 190 to 240 per year for next 5 years total age 60 pilots. With about the same ratio of Capt. to F/O as listed above. Age 65 retirements will start last quarter of next year.

As far as I can tell this is only the "Active" over 60 group since it is broken down by base and equipment. Does not look like it includes those out of medical or other that wont be bidding. Last number I saw was in the 2800 total active pilots on the east. 3400 ish total.

Yes and the retirments are mandated to Start in DEC 0f 2012 but the trainnig float will have to start well before then...
the dam is getting ready to open... Raises out East coming soon.

 

[No Land Green]

Company sent out list for bidding purposes to avoid 60 on 60 intl. crews.

As of November 2011 over age 60 pilots on East side.

Captains: 365
F/O's: 117

Looking at the sen list the numbers should start to add another 190 to 240 per year for next 5 years total age 60 pilots. With about the same ratio of Capt. to F/O as listed above. Age 65 retirements will start last quarter of next year.

As far as I can tell this is only the "Active" over 60 group since it is broken down by base and equipment. Does not look like it includes those out of medical or other that wont be bidding. Last number I saw was in the 2800 total active pilots on the east. 3400 ish total.

So that is about 18+% of the East "Active" Pilots based on the December 2012 Bid with 2,646 Line positions.

 

[Keroseneuser]

Yes and the retirments are mandated to Start in DEC 0f 2012 but the trainnig float will have to start well before then...
the dam is getting ready to open... Raises out East coming soon.

Yeah, the training float is going to be massive over next 10 years. For the next few years you will have senior f/o's that are in their late 50's early 60's already upgrading only to sit in the left seat for a year or two before they retire.

Have to wonder with the cost of training and all those on top of scale at what point a large buyout of pilots by the company to retire becomes fiscally attractive?

 

[BoeingBoy]

As of November 2011 over age 60 pilots on East side.

Captains: 365
F/O's: 117

Are those numbers the total over 60 pilots as of November, or just the international pilots over 60? I assume it's total since the numbers seem big for just international pilots.

If those are for the total, that's how many will retire in the next 5 years because they reach 65, with none the next 1+ years. So it's actually 482 retirements in the ~4 years from Dec 2012 through Nov 2016 - an average of slightly less than120/year for those ~ 4 years or average of ~96/year for the next 5 years. Of course, some pilots not included in those numbers may retire early and those going out on medical should exceed the number returning from medical as the pilot group ages. Interestingly, about the same ratio of Captain retirements as the ratio of the two groups sizes - roughly 2 East captains for each West captain.

The big hiring period at PI during 1983 through 1988 (6 years) when about 1800 pilots were hired (300/year average) will be responsible for the surge in retirements for the 6 years after 2016.

Jim

 

[No Land Green]

Have to wonder with the cost of training and all those on top of scale at what point a large buyout of pilots by the company to retire becomes fiscally attractive?

Training is a "fixed" cost at US Air (ways).........This company will never finance a "buyout of pilots". The East Pilots would have to finance the "buyout" after all we bring the majority of the retirements "to the table"

My 2 cents....

 

[No Land Green]

Are those numbers the total over 60 pilots as of November, or just the international pilots over 60?



Jim

Those are total numbers. The document breaks out Capt and FO seat's on each piece of equipment in every base East of the Mississippi.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Training is a "fixed" cost at US Air (ways).........

LOL...I remember that infameous statement too. In a sense it was accurate. A certain level of training exists all the time, triggered by retirements, people changing equipment, people changing seats. So the training department has to be a certain size all the time and thus has a given cost all the time. That cost would increase with a significant increase in hiring for rapid growth since more training department personnel would be needed but how often has US seen that.

Part/most/all of the reason there won't be a buyout is that it wouldn't save that money, and none on the East side. Say in 3-5 years - somewhere in the 2014 - 2016 time frame - the company paid enough extra to get 500 extra retirements. On the East side, the people that filled those vacancies would be at TOS so making just as much as those the company paid to retire early. There'd be some benefit to a buy-out on the west side, but the company certainly wouldn't come close to saving the money it cost to entice the pilots to retire early.

Jim

 

[Keroseneuser]

Are those numbers the total over 60 pilots as of November, or just the international pilots over 60? I assume it's total since the numbers seem big for just international pilots.

If those are for the total, that's how many will retire in the next 5 years because they reach 65, with none the next 1+ years. So it's actually 482 retirements in the ~4 years from Dec 2012 through Nov 2016 - an average of slightly less than120/year for those ~ 4 years or average of ~96/year for the next 5 years. Of course, some pilots not included in those numbers may retire early and those going out on medical should exceed the number returning from medical as the pilot group ages. Interestingly, about the same ratio of Captain retirements as the ratio of the two groups sizes - roughly 2 East captains for each West captain.

The big hiring period at PI during 1983 through 1988 (6 years) when about 1800 pilots were hired (300/year average) will be responsible for the surge in retirements for the 6 years after 2016.

Jim

It is total over 60 east pilots as of November 2011

Retirements for next five years on each side that I can find with a quick search (Capt and F/O) age 65

East: West:
2012- 8 2
2013-144 40
2014-201 42
2015-179 48
2016-227 42

Total East to 2016- 759 West- 174

The above numbers would include all the list including those out on medical or whatever. They are not my numbers but came from somebody with way more time on their hands than I have that went through the sen list.

The list that started the thread is East active pilots as broken down by company for bidding purposes. Best I can tell the ratio of captains to f/O is in the neighborhood of 3 to 1 on a quick scan of the list. 1987 to 1988 or so hires would probably be a bit less than that since so many were hired in that 2 years period but most of the 1988 guys are still f/o.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Total East to 2016- 759 West- 174

It appears almost 300 of the 759 East are already out on medical - the active East number was 472 of the 759 total. For the West, I assumed that the 50/year starting next year that's been bandied about here was accurate, at least for an average, and that nearly all would be captains. If the West numbers are lower than that the ratio of East to West would also change. Of course, any calculations concerning the future and people on medical are best guesses.

We all assume that it's the older pilots that go out on medical but any pilot could go out on medical tomorrow. The odds just favor it being older pilots. A friend of mine (I flew with him in an earlier life) had a disease that he apparently contracted during his military service in Vietnam, which he was unaware of but it slowly worsened over years till it started giving him problems when he was about 45. He's been on medicine since then that's on the FAA's "you can't fly if you take this" list and will convert from being on medical to retired when he reaches 65. What should have been a 30 year career was cut 20 years short.

Jim

 

[Piedmont1984]

I wonder how many over 60 are carrying 1000+ hours in their sick bank and are considering sickation or early sickirement once they get north of about 62.5? Converting it at retirement provides them with only pennies on the dollar.

 

[Keroseneuser]

I wonder how many over 60 are carrying 1000+ hours in their sick bank and are considering sickation or early sickirement once they get north of about 62.5? Converting it at retirement provides them with only pennies on the dollar.

Unknown. I know a lot of guys that say they are getting out early. But until they actually do you know how that goes.

 

[john john]

Training is a "fixed" cost at US Air (ways).........This company will never finance a "buyout of pilots". The East Pilots would have to finance the "buyout" after all we bring the majority of the retirements "to the table"

My 2 cents....

Wasn’t one of Parker main concerns of the merger with the pilots and f/a’s training cost

 

[Keroseneuser]

It appears almost 300 of the 759 East are already out on medical - the active East number was 472 of the 759 total. For the West, I assumed that the 50/year starting next year that's been bandied about here was accurate, at least for an average, and that nearly all would be captains. If the West numbers are lower than that the ratio of East to West would also change. Of course, any calculations concerning the future and people on medical are best guesses.

We all assume that it's the older pilots that go out on medical but any pilot could go out on medical tomorrow. The odds just favor it being older pilots. A friend of mine (I flew with him in an earlier life) had a disease that he apparently contracted during his military service in Vietnam, which he was unaware of but it slowly worsened over years till it started giving him problems when he was about 45. He's been on medicine since then that's on the FAA's "you can't fly if you take this" list and will convert from being on medical to retired when he reaches 65. What should have been a 30 year career was cut 20 years short.

Jim

To carry the numbers out further using the list I have is as follows:

East West
2017 237 58
2018 258 50
2019 255 74
2020 240 66

Total East Now till 2020 1749 West 422

Given that the most of the Capt's on the east (Not including 190's, give or take a bit for bidding preferences) was hired pre 1988, and assuming that they were around 30 years old (some younger some older) it is safe to assume that almost all of the current captains will be gone in the next nine years on the east side.

Total pilots 3400 minus the 1749 leaves 1651. 2800 current active. Capt and F/O ratio is about 50/50 on most fleets at present time, that means 1400 per seat. Assuming no other medicals or early retires by 2020 (Not likely) means that 251 of the current East pilot group will be the only ones still f/o by then. If things remain as they are at current time. But in this industry these numbers are simply whizzing into the wind. That is one heck of a training float over a nine year period.

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

To carry the numbers out further using the list I have is as follows:

East West
2017 237 58
2018 258 50
2019 255 74
2020 240 66

Total East Now till 2020 1749 West 422

Given that the most of the Capt's on the east (Not including 190's, give or take a bit for bidding preferences) was hired pre 1988, and assuming that they were around 30 years old (some younger some older) it is safe to assume that almost all of the current captains will be gone in the next nine years on the east side.

As they say in "JEOPARDY", Alex What is an "ATTRITION TRAIN"? And the claim that seniority is a non-negotiable item! , But then again this situation will get more complicated for the desert very soon! MM!