Fall Schedule is Out

[eolesen]

Booking window thru the end of the year has now opened up for sale.

Focusing only on DAL for right now, in addition to the new markets, LIT, ELP, STL, MCI, AUS, HOU, ABQ and SAT lost frequencies.

The cuts in frequency are almost exactly what I'd predicted a few months back (see http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/56733-wn-to-add-15-new-cities-from-dal/page-3#entry1060887)

They focused on the airports with more than 7 departures in a market, which also served as bridge markets. ABQ, ELP and SAT were bridge markets to LAX, LAS, and PHX. Likewise, MCI, STL, LIT and TUL got taken down as bridge markets to MDW and the east coast cities.
 

       10-Oct  17-Nov   Change
HOU      23      21       -2
SAT      13      10       -3
AUS      12      10       -2
MSY       8       8       
MCI       9       7       -2
STL       9       7       -2
MDW               6        6
DCA               6        6
ABQ       8       5       -3
MAF       5       5       
LBB       5       5       
ELP       6       4       -2
AMA       4       4       
PHX               4        4
LAX               4        4
ATL               4        4
LAS               4        4
LIT       4       3       -1
TUL       4       3       -1
OKC       3       3       
BHM       3       3       
DEN               3        3
LGA               3        3
MCO               3        3
BWI               3        3
ICT       2       2       
TPA               2        2
BNA               2        2
SAN               2        2
FLL               2        2
SNA               1        1

This is, of course, based on the current filing. There's more to come that wasn't made public, but will be shortly.

 

[SharoninSAT]

.
The Fall of the Wright Amendment has been a long time coming… 
 
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/Southwest-Airlines-to-announce-new-non-stop-destinations-from-Love-Field-259781701.html
 
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/05/southwest-airlines-publishes-special-fares-and-flight-schedule-for-15-new-cities-from-dallas-love-field-new-washington-national-flights-to0.html/

 

[WorldTraveler]

the fall of fares from N. Texas has been even longer in coming.

May WN succeed wildly at what it does.

 

[SharoninSAT]

the fall of fares from N. Texas has been even longer in coming.

May WN succeed wildly at what it does.

 
Yes they have... 
Thanks WT 

 

[700UW]

WN is cutting CLT-MCO totally.

 

[eolesen]

the fall of fares from N. Texas has been even longer in coming.

Didn't look to me like fares had fallen all that much, but I only checked a half dozen markets or so.

 

[swamt]

Southwest affect is still happening...
 
Southwest effect slashes Des Moines prices

 

[WorldTraveler]

my pleasure, Sharon.
 

Didn't look to me like fares had fallen all that much, but I only checked a half dozen markets or so.

 
because WN is living off of promotional fares right now. They will be changing pricing and more significantly inventory controls a lot over the next few months  as they determine the levels of demand.

AA can ignore the hoopla of WN's intro fares for now but they can't as Oct 13 gets closer and as more and more business travelers shop the options.

 

Southwest affect is still happening...
 
Southwest effect slashes Des Moines prices

nea
and again, you didn't respond to what is happening in OMA which was the beneficiary of WN's lower fares and presence there.

WN can only lower fares as much as their cost structure will allow, WN's cost advantage over the legacy carriers (right now AA is a tad below DL in overall CASM) is in the mid single digits which isn't a whole lot of difference that can be used to price aggressively. The WN effect in DSM - just as it will in DAL and DCA - is more related to the premium pricing that the legacy carriers have been able to maintain than that WN is necessarily a low cost option.

DCA does indeed have some low fares but if you look at certain markets that have low fare service from both BWI and DCA, the average fares are not that much difference. The yield advantage that legacy carriers have from DCA is because of high fare markets such as DFW-DCA where AA has had no competition.

Even in a market like ORD-LGA which all 3 legacy carriers serve from a slot controlled airport, the level of competition among each other is a big part of what helps keep fares down. Competition of any sort - even among legacy carriers - produces much of the same effect as what WN generates.

and again the biggest theme in the fall schedule is that WN is slowly shrinking its presence in many small cities in favor of a large presence in the big markets where WN's larger planes and the larger markets make it easier for WN to profitably get its share of the market.

WN's network will increasingly favor big markets at the expense of smaller ones.

 

[swamt]

And the "Southwest Affect" is still happening, just admit it...

 

[WorldTraveler]

it seems like this is something you really want to believe...

Let's go back and agree or disagree that the WN effect referred to a significant increase at traffic at an airport because of new service by WN driven by low fares.

First, other carriers have been more than capable of generating traffic based on low fares. Several legacy carriers have been dragged into court because they added significant amounts of new capacity on top of low fare carriers that entered their markets, lowered fares, and stimulated huge amounts of new capacity.
because cost accounting in the airline industry is incredibly difficult to do, those lawsuits were tossed out since it is impossible to argue for predatory pricing and capacity dumping if you can't establish the cost to serve a market.


but even on the surface, adding fares well below what exists elsewhere on a carrier's system is going to raise eyebrows.

WN will offer low intro fares to stimulate and shift traffic but they will be short-lived - not unlike the increased capacity and low fares that some of the legacy carriers offered.

I can admit that any carrier - WN can add low fares and stimulate traffic if you can admit that WN doesn't have the cost advantage to the legacy carriers - and is at a cost disadvantage to most of the low fare carriers - in order to price below them on a consistent basis.

The very reason why WN fought hard to keep VX out of DAL is because VX has a lower CASM than WN. Even though DL has a higher CASM than WN, DL has a history of getting revenue premiums from WN in directly competitive markets so WN can discount all it wants but DL somehow manages to keep the premium revenue which is what WN ultimately is after by dominating a market.

WN simply doesn't have the cost structure to stimulate traffic.

Second, you look at a city like DSM and argue that WN has stimulated traffic - like what they did in BHM before they served ATL - but you don't look at what has happened to the surrounding cities.
I can tell you flat out that OMA traffic is down even while DSM is up. There isn't much of a WN effect on a regional basis if you just shift traffic to one airport - DSM - which has historically had higher fares than OMA - from an airport that has had lower fares - OMA.


Third, you repeatedly fail to acknowledge that many of these cities have benefitted by WN's presence while failing to acknowledge that FL was in many of these markets before WN was and WN has HIGHER average fares than WN did. These cities are benefitting from WN's larger network - remember the vast majority of passengers on WN's DSM-MDW flight are connecting at MDW - but when the fares are higher, it is harder to argue that WN is stimulating traffic when the fares are higher. WN just happens to have a larger, better located "hub" to serve the market.

Much of the traffic stimulation that you and WN has claimed is really a result of the loss of F9 service in the region. WN's fares are higher than F9's and WN is offering a broader network but F9 stimulated those markets first.

WN's average fares are lower than the legacies but there are a whole lot of low cost carriers including FL that have served many of these markets and have offered lower fares.

further,
as much as you and WN corporate want to try and wipe FL's history away, FL was a lower cost competitor than WN that built its route system on top of DL and WN's and found that both of those two larger airlines were far more capable of limiting FL's growth and putting pressure on FL than existed in the past - and yet FL had no real place to grow aside from DL and WN's influence.

so, yeah, I will be happy to acknowledge that the WN effect exists - but it is no different from market stimulating that any other carrier does. But no airline, WN included, can consistently offer fares below cost and WN's cost advantage is just nowhere near as large as it once was. Add in that the WN effect in many of the markets you note really just involves shifting traffic from one city to another nearby and that claims for traffic stimulating ignore the fact that other carriers including FL had lower average fares from those cities, and the claim looks less realistic.

Be proud of what WN is and run with their ability to add service to markets which customers want. But don't try to argue that WN is doing something that other carriers can't do on a sustained, national basis driven by their costs and by all means don't take claim for something that your merger partner did better than WN has done, even if they did it on a more limited basis.

 

[eolesen]

We have a thread dedicated to the Southwest Effect. Can we avoid shot gunning whatever thread you have open at the time?....

This is about schedules.

 

[WorldTraveler]

in terms of the combined FL/WN schedule post Wright, the biggest percent increases in seats outside of DCA, LGA, and DAL, the largest increases in capacity all are int'l/island cities - AUA, SJD, CUN, MBJ, and SJU while the biggest losers in terms of percent of seats are ORF, ECP, SDF, NAS, and AMA.

In terms of absolute seat changes, the biggest positive changes are DCA, DAL, LAX, SAN, and LGA - each of which have 1000 or more new seats/day while the biggest losses come in ATL (more than 2000 less seats/day or 12%), HOU, SAT, and ABQ which have an average between them of 1000 less seats per day.

WN's schedule includes about 1.5% fewer flights, about 1% more seats, and 4% more ASMS as larger aircraft fly longer flights.

WN's network is shifting capacity from its traditional markets to larger coastal markets and the Caribbean. As expected, WN has little overall growth this year.

comparing to other US airlines including their regional operators, AA's seats are about 1%, AS and B6 are both up about 4%, DL is up by 5%, while UA is down by 4%.

 

[SharoninSAT]

.
Just an FYI… On July 21st we will open the schedule 
from Jan. 5th thru Mar. 7th…
 
More growth coming... 

 

[700UW]

WN is cutting SLC-PDX-SLC.

 

[swamt]

.
Just an FYI… On July 21st we will open the schedule 
from Jan. 5th thru Mar. 7th…
 
More growth coming... 

Thx Sharon, LUV to keep reading about the growth, keep them coming pls...