Forbes Article On Nwa

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Oct 29, 2002
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Focus keeps Northwest flying
By Jane Roberts

September 19, 2004

Northwest Airlines is not facing Chapter 11 like peers US Airways,
Delta
and United because it has managed costs for the long term, said CEO
Richard
Anderson.

"We've stuck to our knitting," Anderson told The Commercial Appeal's
editorial board last week.

Anderson said Northwest has focused on serving small and medium markets
across the nation's heartland and maintaining the trump card of being
the
only major U.S. carrier that also flies as a cargo carrier.

"We've been clear about what we are going to do and not going to do,"
he
said. "We're not going run an airline within an airline as our
competitors
have done.

"We've never flown transcontientals, we don't fly up and down the East
Coast or up and down the West Coast."

Today, Northwest is also stepping up its "apology level" when things go
wrong, sending even customers who didn't register complaints
certificates
for frequent flier miles when Northwest-controlled delays waylay
passengers.

"The model is changing," he said. "If something goes wrong that is our
fault, we need to take responsibility for it. That distinguishes us in
the
airline industry."

While Delta has nearly pulled out of Dallas/Fort Worth as it tries to
ride
out financial troubles, Memphians don't need to worry about Northwest's
hub
here, he said.

"We view Memphis as a strategic part of Northwest. It gives us coverage
in
a region of the country we couldn't easily cover from Minneapolis or
Michigan," Anderson said.

Northwest is also concentrating on keeping cash balances high "so we
have
time to continue to evolve," he said.

Northwest finished the second quarter with more than $2.8 billion in
liquidity.

"Of the majors, Northwest has the highest amount of cash for its size,"
said Piper Jaffray analyst Joel Denney. "They've been very careful to
make
sure they maintain strong liquidity."

The aviation industry has already withstood two rounds of bankruptcies
since the airlines were deregulated in the 1978.

Now in the third round, two of the six airlines still afloat are in
bankruptcy, and Delta teeters on the brink.

"That puts a lot of pressure on our costs," Anderson said, "because the
low-cost producer ends up setting the market price."

Northwest is slightly better insulated than its U.S. peers because up
to 25
percent of its business comes from Pacific flights, where its cargo
business has long capitalized on the influx of Asian exports.

"We have good prospects in China," Anderson said. "It's a business
we've
been in a long time. It would be very difficult for anyone else to
replicate."

The closest is United Airlines, which purchased Pan Am's Tokyo network
in
the 1980s.

Northwest's niche in the cargo market is also insulating because it
carries
loads heavier than the usual express freight.

"It's bigger, heavier freight than FedEx carries," Anderson said.

Although Anderson expects fares will continue to drop, he looks for a
boost
from industry alliances, including Northwest's recent affiliation with
SkyTeam -- a consortium of nine major airlines connecting Europe, Asia
and
Africa -- to help.

Northwest pioneered the idea of airline alliances in 1991 when it
paired
with KLM Royal Dutch Airlines to offer twice- weekly flights between
Minneapolis and Amsterdam.

"Now, we have three flights a day to Amsterdam out of Minneapolis and
four
from Detroit," he said.

Others include daily service from Memphis, Boston, JFK, Newark,
Washington
Dulles, Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles and
Seattle.

"The alliances make sense because we knew there were places in the
world
we'd never have access to. I'm amazed at how much traffic we get,"
Anderson
said.

Its ties to KLM bring Northwest about $1 billion in business a year.

At home, Northwest's Memphis hub is central to its alliance with Delta
and
Continental, based in Atlanta and Houston, respectively.

"Delta is particularly important for Memphis because it is a carrier
that
has always had such deep roots in the South," he said.

The Continental alliance, in place since 1998, is annually worth $150
million to Northwest.

Northwest's domestic alliances are "second rate" compared to the world
alliances, said Alan Bender, aviation professor at Embry-Riddle
Aeronautical University in Florida.

Northwest last week joined SkyTeam, one of three world alliances,
offering
passengers access to more than 14,000 daily departures and reciprocal
frequent flier benefits.

"Until now, Northwest and its partners were all alone competing against
some giants," he said. "Finally, they are now competitive."

Through SkyTeam, Northwest can team to get better buys on fuel or
aircraft
and share ground crews to improve efficiencies.

And in time, streamlined online E-ticketing will be available.

"Northwest joining SkyTeam is a blinding glimpse of the obvius," said
Henry
Harteveldt, airline and travel consultant. "But it's very intelligent.
Now
it's a pitch itself as a global solution to corporate travel planners."

Alliances and restructuring have saved money on the nonlabor side of
the
business. The challenge yet is getting labor costs in line.

Northwest pilots, now among the highest paid in the industry, have
offered
to invest $200 million a year in the airline through 2006 through pay
cuts
and work rule changes.

Northwest says it needs at least $300 million a year from the pilots.

The sides have been talking since July 2003.

"It's sufficient to say the intention is to have a completed pilot
agreement this fall," Anderson said.
 
Steady as she goes, the only survivor of the great international U.S. Flag carriers, marching to it's our own beat. Experience has kept Northwest afloat during these violent (times) storms. Owned fleet = life raft...World Headquarters, made of granite built into the ground has earned it's nick name....The Rock. Let's hope we have another 77 years. Nice article.
 
This may be obvious, but NW is also the only legacy airline with almost no LCC competition at it's hub cities. In Minneapolis and Detroit, large markets for originating passengers, NW can continue to charge monopoly fares to most cities. Almost no competition in Memphis. Compare this to Delta in Atlanta and to some extent in SLC; UAL in Chicago, Denver and now IAD; AA in Chicago and short-hauls in Dallas. That said, NW has also done a terrific job of becoming the predominant carrier - beating out UAL and AA - in lots of smaller and medium-sized cities of the Midwest.
 
richb624 said:
This may be obvious, but NW is also the only legacy airline with almost no LCC competition at it's hub cities. In Minneapolis and Detroit, large markets for originating passengers, NW can continue to charge monopoly fares to most cities. Almost no competition in Memphis. Compare this to Delta in Atlanta and to some extent in SLC; UAL in Chicago, Denver and now IAD; AA in Chicago and short-hauls in Dallas. That said, NW has also done a terrific job of becoming the predominant carrier - beating out UAL and AA - in lots of smaller and medium-sized cities of the Midwest.
[post="183910"][/post]​

It should be noted that this is not necessarily due purely to “luck.†NWA has “faced-down†low-fare competition from Southwest in DTW and Frontier in MSP. I think the difference has been that Northwest has reacted aggressively at the first sign of an “incursion†by a low-fare carrier, rather than waiting for the low-fare carrier to start taking away significant market share (e.g. United should have seen the threat Frontier was becoming long, long ago).

That being said, anyone who thinks that NWA is somehow “immune†from significant low-fare competition at their hubs is deluding themselves; it is a question of “when,†rather than “if.†Even if Air Tran, JetBlue, or Southwest do not build significant presences at DTW, MEM, or MSP, some budding entrepreneur(s) will find these locations with their relatively higher fares too tempting a target to resist. While they may not last long in the face of an all-out onslaught by NWA, they could stick around long enough to do some damage (which I what I believe to be Independence Air’s fate in IAD).
 
JetClipper said:
It should be noted that this is not necessarily due purely to “luck.â€￾ NWA has “faced-downâ€￾ low-fare competition from Southwest in DTW and Frontier in MSP. I think the difference has been that Northwest has reacted aggressively at the first sign of an “incursionâ€￾ by a low-fare carrier, rather than waiting for the low-fare carrier to start taking away significant market share (e.g. United should have seen the threat Frontier was becoming long, long ago).
[post="183966"][/post]​
Good point; and yet, and at NW, all we hear is how the LCC's are killing us. Anyone know how FL, HP, and TZ are doing in MSP?
 
JetClipper said:
That being said, anyone who thinks that NWA is somehow “immuneâ€￾ from significant low-fare competition at their hubs is deluding themselves; it is a question of “when,â€￾ rather than “if.â€￾
[post="183966"][/post]​

That's the absolute truth. There is no such thing as immunity from competition, and while NWA has so far been successful in reacting to such forces, there is no certainty that they will in the future.

Just the presence of Southwest in STL with about 100 flights a day was enough to bleed TWA to death domestically. Even though a lot of Southwests traffic there was generated by Southwest, people who might not have flown otherwise, their fare structure made many of TWAs routes not economically viable. While NWA is not in the same position as TWA, they are subject to the same realities.
 
The last time I looked SW was STILL in DTW...and HAS been for (I think 10-12 years). Who's stopping them from growing? MSP has made it very inviting for ANY LCC to set up shop. NWA is a notorious shark that will settle for NOTHING but the lifeless corpse of any competitor that displays grand ideas of sharing a piece of their bread and butter. NWA's turf has not been consumed by LCCs for a reason, and it's not because there is no money to be made there. NWA does not simply "defend" it's turf, it goes on the attack and takes the battle to where ever it sees fit. It has been played out again and again over the years. BigRed is a well oiled, very efficient, fierce competitor. It's as simple as that.
 
Alot of people attribute most of NWA's success to the type of service that they provide, which is largely long distance travel rather than short haul domestic travel. Honestly, when you think of travel within the US, NWA is rarely the first to come to mind.

But NWA still has a fair amount of competition from LCCs on their home turf. In DTW, you have to deal with Southwest (they have somewhere around 20-30 flts a day I think from 5 gates, from the looks of it that going up to 7 or 8, lots of construction when I was there last) America West, not sure how many flts they have a day, Spirit which is based in DTW and now Indy Air, which is taking off big time here in TYS. As for MSP, NWA now has to deal with a recently revived Sun Country which is building quite a good reputation from what I've heard, but haven't had a chance to experience thier service first hand, but I've heard really good things. MEM is the only NWA hub that doesn't have a major LCC presence, but that maybe changing, Indy is planning on begining service there I have heard, and rumors have it that WN is going to start more service in Tennessee and MEM is the only logical place to put it, TYS, CHA and TRI simply don't have the traffic for them to even think about looking at any of them.

But the thing that I think is really helping NWA along is how they are treating their frequent flyers, many of the clients I deal with prefer using NWA over any other carrier anymore, for the perks that are still around and the fact that NWA hasn't been cutting back substantially in the areas of pax service like the other majors, i.e. not forcing them to use machines to check in, having reasonably consistant service to their hub cities, and still doing many of the small things that have been cut out of many of the other carriers like snacks et all.
 
Yes, NWA does have LCC competition. In Minneapolis, however, Sun Country is not a threat. Basically, they are back in the charter business after deciding to go head to head with NWA in the scheduled passenger business. It was a disaster for them. Sun Country does have a great niche in the Twin Cities but that niche does not involve competing against Northwest.

A bit different story in DTW, as WN is alive and well and competing as fierce as ever. Couple problems however: 1) With the building of the new McNamara Terminal, an agreement between the Airport commission and NWA limits the other airlines in the Smith Termainal to 38 gates. In other words, the best case scenario for WN is that they end up with eight of those thirty eight gates which hardly enough to handle an operation that's going to run NWA out of town.
2) Also a bit difficult for WN because DTW is an NWA fortress hub. From DTW, NWA offers non stop service to almost everywhere in the world that you'd ever want to go and one stop service to everywhere else. WN doesn't even fly outside the US.
3) A good frequent flyer program and airplanes that actually have a first class.

As for Spirit. A poorly managed Flying Circus. Not too worried.


cheers

bigsky