Fuzzy Math

Decision 2004

Veteran
Mar 12, 2004
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American, a unit of Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR Corp., said that every 1-cent rise in the price of a gallon of jet fuel costs it more than $30 million a year. The airline and its regional affiliates spent more than $900 million on fuel in the second quarter, nearly 42 percent more than the same quarter last year.

Source = http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040730/amr_fares_1.html

Now let us fuzzy math this problem with logic.

42% of $900 Million = $378 Million

Mechanic and Related Concessions = $318 Million

AMR Spent $60 Million more than our concessions on fuel in the last quarter, yet they did NOT file for Bankruptcy.

Using this fuzzy math, one has to wonder why if fuel prices have gutted our concessions from AMR why are they not on the Bankruptcy steps? Could it be that we were lied to and Jim Little was hoodwinked again?
 
Decision 2004 said:
Now let us fuzzy math this problem with logic.

42% of $900 Million = $378 Million

Mechanic and Related Concessions = $318 Million

AMR Spent $60 Million more than our concessions on fuel in the last quarter, yet they did NOT file for Bankruptcy.

Using this fuzzy math, one has to wonder why if fuel prices have gutted our concessions from AMR why are they not on the Bankruptcy steps? Could it be that we were lied to and Jim Little was hoodwinked again?
Ah Dave ya got him cold handed you super sluth detective you. I just bet Jim Little lied. You have to be the smartest man alive, why aren't you in a union leadership role? Our problems would have been solved years ago with a brain like yours. Fuzzy math? Any math to you has got to be fuzzy.
 
Jim Littled fooled? Maybe, but I think it was a deliberate deception on his part.

Lets not forget Littles threat that if we do not approve the concessions that the company may go directly in Chapter 7.

This was repeated in the TWU express.


Other than Jim Little and the TWU Express I dont recall this coming from anywhere else.

The company denied that it was ever a consideration, for what thats worth.

Why would Little make such a threat? Clearly it was meant to intimidate the Senior members, who would not be affected by a layoff, into voting yes to concessions.

It would be interesting to find out if Little and the other TWU leaders made, or had any relations or close friends make any large purchases of AMR stock around the period of the ratification.

The TWU had many possible reasons for selling us out.

First of all, the leadership can not be held accountable by the members. So if Little says "I was fooled, sorry", thats as much as members can expect. WE cant remove him.

Lets look at some possible motives for the TWU.

1. The possibility that the company would terminate the $3.1 million a year they kickback to TWU officials.

2. Windfall in AMR stock. The TWU makes more money off other sources than they collect in dues. Where the TWU invests their money is not disclosed in the LM-2.

3.The possibility of increased stock market performance if they give the company everything they want vs the high legal costs of fighting the company in bankruptcy court.
There can be little doubt, that even if our contract was kept intact, that the cost to the TWU International would have been substantial. Unions like the IAM (over 700,000 members) or the IBT (over 1.4 million members) can easily absorb such costs, but the TWU probably would be heavily impacted. If the TWU fought they probably would not be able to provide International officers with all the perks they currently enjoy.

4. The possibility that by applying the Walmart philosophy to unionism that the TWU/AMR partnership can wipe out much of the competition.

This would provide AMR the opportunity to expand and swell the ranks of TWU dues payers. This would also, (in fact has already) provide the TWU a "back door" to raid other AFL-CIO unions without it being called a raid. Since the members of other unions become TWU members not by expressing their personal choice of unions but rather by the fact that they become AMR employees this is not considered a raid. The TWU has followed this strategy for twenty years and as a result has seen the ATD become the largest division in the union. While other unions have seen a decline in their ATD membership the TWU has seen an increase.

As the TWU becomes more of a force in the industry real wages have declined at a more rapid pace. Unlike other industries where growth drives wages up the TWU has worked closely with various employers to lower wages in both good times and bad.

TWU Membership at AMR has more than tripled, so despite the nearly 40% reduction in real pay, real dues has increased by well over 150%. This huge increase in the number of dues payers easily offsets the fact that real wages, and the dues that are a component of wages have steadliy declined.

5. While real wages have steadily declined they Leadership of the TWU has kept abreast of inflation. They do this by putting in extremely low starting wages with automatic step progressions to top pay. So even if no raises are won by the TWU in contract negotiations the formula for International officers uses a "weighted " formula of "increases". By providing AMR the opportunity to expand into the void left by competitors it increases the possibility that AMR will hire more workers at starting wages and give TWU International officers more raises.

6. This International pay formula also explains the TWUs willingness to give away benifits and premiums which do not increase the dues or their own personal salaries. By giving away our benifits they provide AA with lower costs and also open up the possibility of making more money by selling us insurance to cover what they took away.

7. Keeping skeletons in the closet. There is no doubt that if the TWU had chosen to fight, that embarrasing informatoion would have been brought out, and not just the $3.1 million. The fact is that the TWUs best legal arguement against the company would have been that the TWU has led the industry in concessions for the past twenty years. That these concessions helped make AMR the largest airline in the world. The company would have argued back that the TWU also prospered from this "arrangement". Needless to say that in Bankruptcy the dirty laundry would have been aired out for all the members to see.

There is little doubt that the TWU wanted to avoid this scenario at any cost, especially since the "cost" would be borne by the members, not the International. The fact is that there is only one reason why the TWU would choose to fight, because its the right thing to do, but since doing the right thing is not important to the International, since they cant be held accountable anyway, they chose to fight the members instead of the company.
 
Well put Bob. But you still can not convince the majority of the twu members, who believe chicken little saved their jobs with massive concessions, that the twu is nothing more than a business run by people who don't give a rats ass about you, me or the members so long as the dues money keeps flowing.

We would have been better off in bankruptcy then the following bonuses would not be an issue...

American chief spurns $111,300 raise: American Airlines CEO Gerard Arpey has said no to a $111,300 raise offered to him by the board of the airline's AMR parent company, telling The Associated Press that it would send the wrong message to employees. The Dallas Morning News (free registration) recalls that pay remains a big issue at American, with 80,000 staff conceding a collective $1.8 billion in annual pay and benefits. Previous boss Donald Carty ($811,125 a year) was forced out after a scandal erupted over executive pensions and a secret bonus plan. :up:
 
Isnt it strange how Arpey declined a raise because it would send the wrong message but Little , Hall et al did not share the same concern as they accepted their raises?
 
Nightwatch said:
Ah Dave ya got him cold handed you super sluth detective you. I just bet Jim Little lied. You have to be the smartest man alive, why aren't you in a union leadership role? Our problems would have been solved years ago with a brain like yours. Fuzzy math? Any math to you has got to be fuzzy.
Somehow, you fail to respond specifically to the topic.

Can you explain how a corporation can demand a specified annual amount in concessions to avoid Bankruptcy Court, and then in one single quarter spend more than that annual concession requirement, while at the same time continue operations status quo?

Is this type of thinking beyond your comprehension, or do you have an explanation?

You can personal attack and playground slam us all you want, but the truth is there to see, you just have use a small of logic. Feel free to explain if you can?
 
Decision 2004 said:
Now let us fuzzy math this problem with logic.

42% of $900 Million = $378 Million

Mechanic and Related Concessions = $318 Million

AMR Spent $60 Million more than our concessions on fuel in the last quarter, yet they did NOT file for Bankruptcy.

Using this fuzzy math, one has to wonder why if fuel prices have gutted our concessions from AMR why are they not on the Bankruptcy steps? Could it be that we were lied to and Jim Little was hoodwinked again?
I find your math skills a little lacking. Perhaps your local community college has a course you could take to become competent with numbers.

AMR spent 41.7% more on fuel in Q2 of 2004 than in the same quarter in 2003. You then mistakenly took 42% of the higher number to try to compute the increase in fuel costs. You got it backward.

Q2 2004 fuel was $917 million.
Q2 2003 fuel was $647 million.

917 is 41.7% larger than 647.

http://www.shareholder.com/aa/releaseDetai...eleaseID=139812

The increase in fuel costs was $270 million, not $378 as you falsely allege.

Besides, the company squeezed $1.6 billion from its represented workers and another $200 million from nonrepresented workers (including management) for a total of $1.8 billion annually, which more than covers higher fuel costs.

Even better, revenues were up 11.7%, which helped to pay the higher fuel costs.

You'll win more people over if your arguments aren't overshadowed by simple math errors. No wonder your organizing efforts keep failing to succeed. B)
 
Bob Owens said:
Jim Littled fooled? Maybe, but I think it was a deliberate deception on his part.

Lets not forget Littles threat that if we do not approve the concessions that the company may go directly in Chapter 7.

This was repeated in the TWU express.


Other than Jim Little and the TWU Express I dont recall this coming from anywhere else.

The company denied that it was ever a consideration, for what thats worth.

Why would Little make such a threat? Clearly it was meant to intimidate the Senior members, who would not be affected by a layoff, into voting yes to concessions.

It would be interesting to find out if Little and the other TWU leaders made, or had any relations or close friends make any large purchases of AMR stock around the period of the ratification.

The TWU had many possible reasons for selling us out.

First of all, the leadership can not be held accountable by the members. So if Little says "I was fooled, sorry", thats as much as members can expect. WE cant remove him.

Lets look at some possible motives for the TWU.

1. The possibility that the company would terminate the $3.1 million a year they kickback to TWU officials.

2. Windfall in AMR stock. The TWU makes more money off other sources than they collect in dues. Where the TWU invests their money is not disclosed in the LM-2.

3.The possibility of increased stock market performance if they give the company everything they want vs the high legal costs of fighting the company in bankruptcy court.
There can be little doubt, that even if our contract was kept intact, that the cost to the TWU International would have been substantial. Unions like the IAM (over 700,000 members) or the IBT (over 1.4 million members) can easily absorb such costs, but the TWU probably would be heavily impacted. If the TWU fought they probably would not be able to provide International officers with all the perks they currently enjoy.

4. The possibility that by applying the Walmart philosophy to unionism that the TWU/AMR partnership can wipe out much of the competition.

This would provide AMR the opportunity to expand and swell the ranks of TWU dues payers. This would also, (in fact has already) provide the TWU a "back door" to raid other AFL-CIO unions without it being called a raid. Since the members of other unions become TWU members not by expressing their personal choice of unions but rather by the fact that they become AMR employees this is not considered a raid. The TWU has followed this strategy for twenty years and as a result has seen the ATD become the largest division in the union. While other unions have seen a decline in their ATD membership the TWU has seen an increase.

As the TWU becomes more of a force in the industry real wages have declined at a more rapid pace. Unlike other industries where growth drives wages up the TWU has worked closely with various employers to lower wages in both good times and bad.

TWU Membership at AMR has more than tripled, so despite the nearly 40% reduction in real pay, real dues has increased by well over 150%. This huge increase in the number of dues payers easily offsets the fact that real wages, and the dues that are a component of wages have steadliy declined.

5. While real wages have steadily declined they Leadership of the TWU has kept abreast of inflation. They do this by putting in extremely low starting wages with automatic step progressions to top pay. So even if no raises are won by the TWU in contract negotiations the formula for International officers uses a "weighted " formula of "increases". By providing AMR the opportunity to expand into the void left by competitors it increases the possibility that AMR will hire more workers at starting wages and give TWU International officers more raises.

6. This International pay formula also explains the TWUs willingness to give away benifits and premiums which do not increase the dues or their own personal salaries. By giving away our benifits they provide AA with lower costs and also open up the possibility of making more money by selling us insurance to cover what they took away.

7. Keeping skeletons in the closet. There is no doubt that if the TWU had chosen to fight, that embarrasing informatoion would have been brought out, and not just the $3.1 million. The fact is that the TWUs best legal arguement against the company would have been that the TWU has led the industry in concessions for the past twenty years. That these concessions helped make AMR the largest airline in the world. The company would have argued back that the TWU also prospered from this "arrangement". Needless to say that in Bankruptcy the dirty laundry would have been aired out for all the members to see.

There is little doubt that the TWU wanted to avoid this scenario at any cost, especially since the "cost" would be borne by the members, not the International. The fact is that there is only one reason why the TWU would choose to fight, because its the right thing to do, but since doing the right thing is not important to the International, since they cant be held accountable anyway, they chose to fight the members instead of the company.
Bob if you think there was insider trading in AMR stock then take it to the SEC.

As to Jim Little's threat about AMR going Chapter 7, Bob I got the same feeling reading the WSJ. And they are hardly pro labor.

What would you have wanted? Get it into court and after all the dust settles and the creditors have explained what THEY expected, thank the judge and negotiate from strength and knowledge? You only walk out of BK Court when the judge is done, was the judge pro-labor?????
 
j,
you must know by now how these amfa boys think. It is all a big conspiracy to bring down the mechanics at AA!!! Who all's in on it??? Well, let's see, according to these amfa believers the TWU, AA, AMR, DOL, NMB, SEC, AFL-CIO, IAM, BK Judges, and whomever else dares to talk bad about, not endorse (to amfa's satisfaction) or ignore amfa!!!


Just more crying on the part of amfa!!!!
 
twuer said:
j,
you must know by now how these amfa boys think. It is all a big conspiracy to bring down the mechanics at AA!!! Who all's in on it??? Well, let's see, according to these amfa believers the TWU, AA, AMR, DOL, NMB, SEC, AFL-CIO, IAM, BK Judges, and whomever else dares to talk bad about, not endorse (to amfa's satisfaction) or ignore amfa!!!


Just more crying on the part of amfa!!!!
LMAO @ twuer
First you say we are elitists who are only thinking of themselves then you flip around and say we are trying to bring down the mechanics. This is commonly called flip flopping twuer and only shows the ignorance of the twu wannabes. Just thought I would let you know so that you can try and improve your stance on whichever side you ultimately decide to flop to.
 
Rusty said:
LMAO @ twuer
First you say we are elitists who are only thinking of themselves then you flip around and say we are trying to bring down the mechanics. This is commonly called flip flopping twuer and only shows the ignorance of the twu wannabes. Just thought I would let you know so that you can try and improve your stance on whichever side you ultimately decide to flop to.
Rusty, Rusty. Rusty!!!! Come on now. Try reading my post again, will you??? Did I say that amfa was trying to bring down the mechaincs or did I say that amfa has made up this big conspiracy theory (and you have!!!) that EVERYONE ELSE is out to bring down the mechanics???

Re-read it and get back with me, okay??!! Unless of course you don't want your ignorance showing!!
 

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j,
you must know by now how these amfa boys think. It is all a big conspiracy to bring down the mechanics at AA!!! Who all's in on it??? Well, let's see, according to these amfa believers the twu, AA, AMR, DOL, NMB, SEC, AFL-CIO, IAM, BK Judges, and whomever else dares to talk bad about, not endorse (to amfa's satisfaction) or ignore amfa!!!





You are truly a jackass.

You assume that the pay of the CEOs (well into the upper 6 figures)and the pilots (also six figures) and the ramp fueler in MIA who made 109,000 dollars in 2002 is acceptable. While on the other hand you were given massive concessions and told you were lucky to have a job so take your 60K a year and pull together and win together.

This is not a conspiracy it is other title groups making money off of your vote of YES. This is why you are a jackass.

The CEOs at AA could not run a grocery store as a matter of fact they are laughing at fools like you who keep giving and giving while they keep taking and taking.


It is not a conspiracy it is not a better than thou attitude. It is bargaining to get the best pay and benefits possible. If you think that this was the best we could have gotten then you are blind man who believes the sit you hear. "chapter 11 or else"

If we are in such bad shape why then did Arpeeee get offered a bonus. Where is the shared sacrifice what is the turnaround plan. Enlighten me about it because all I see is AArogant airlines doing the same sit with less people. Nothing has changed. I hate to break it to you but there was no shared sacrifice and if you really think there was tell us all about it. I would love to know. :shock:
 
Oh look, another well-thought-out post! Hey T4C, you know what happens when you ASSume don't you????? :shock:

You guys are showing your "brilliance" with every post you make!!! :up:

All I can say is KEEP IT UP!!!!
 

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twuer, if that is what you meant then I stand corrected but, you are still trying to deceive. The collusion between the twu and company is very evident as can be seen in the filings to the NMB and everyday operations around the system.

First and for your information only twuer: shhhh now, AA is part of AMR along with AE, Sabre and other affiliates.

Second I have never seen anyone say they think there is collusion with the DOT, SEC, and or a Bk judge. While you continue to spew lies and deceit your ignorance still shows, again and still just trying to help you out twuer.
 
Thanks Rusty!! I appreciate your help!! :huh:


The collusion between the twu and company is very evident as can be seen in the filings to the NMB



And yet again another comment to re-iterate my original post..........paranoiah, conspiracy theories on the part of amfa!!!! I brought this up to another amfa suporter so I will bring it up to you. Did you know that Delle did the exact same thing as you are saying the TWU did by adding folks (who the NMB says should be included) at another airline. I want to say he did it at Horizon but don't quote me on that. Why can Delle do it and not the TWU???

By the way, I never got a response from the first person I asked this to.
(imagine that!!)