Has It Started?

[DFWCC]

<_< Has it started?
Carty errr... AArpey is starting to cry poor. With UAL ready to throw out its pension plan and USAir racing to see if they can be 1st. AArpey is setting the stage for AAs BK. They are on a plan to show employees how much they are losing. I say they because they make the money allocations, I just do the work. Soon, about 4 to 6 mos AA will want give backs. They will force us to the wall. Hey, if they win they get great low wages if not, they go BK and have the judge throw out the contracts. Lower the wages and get rid of the pensions.
Stocks goes up and the stockholders make a killing. AArpey and CAArty live happily ever after.
A win win situation for the luxery suit boys.

 

[AirLUVer]

<_< Has it started?
Carty errr... AArpey is starting to cry poor. With UAL ready to throw out its pension plan and USAir racing to see if they can be 1st. AArpey is setting the stage for AAs BK. They are on a plan to show employees how much they are losing. I say they because they make the money allocations, I just do the work. Soon, about 4 to 6 mos AA will want give backs. They will force us to the wall. Hey, if they win they get great low wages if not, they go BK and have the judge throw out the contracts. Lower the wages and get rid of the pensions.
Stocks goes up and the stockholders make a killing. AArpey and CAArty live happily ever after.
A win win situation for the luxery suit boys.

[post="183509"][/post]​

Hate to break it to you, but if a company files bankruptcy the stockholders are the VERY LAST person to collect. Each and every share currently out there will be worth ZILCH, ZERO, ZIPPO.

Guess what 100,000 shares of stock is worth?

0 x 100,000 is still Zero.

 

[Wretched Wrench]

Why should the company go bankrupt when the unions grant concessions on request?

 

[air_guy]

Has it started?
Carty errr... AArpey is starting to cry poor. With UAL ready to throw out its pension plan and USAir racing to see if they can be 1st. AArpey is setting the stage for AAs BK. They are on a plan to show employees how much they are losing. I say they because they make the money allocations, I just do the work. Soon, about 4 to 6 mos AA will want give backs. They will force us to the wall. Hey, if they win they get great low wages if not, they go BK and have the judge throw out the contracts. Lower the wages and get rid of the pensions.
Stocks goes up and the stockholders make a killing. AArpey and CAArty live happily ever after.
A win win situation for the luxery suit boys.

[post="183517"][/post]​

Ironic, yesterday I was writing in another forum, to another hardcore union employee, that complained how could we sustain another 1B+ of extra fuel costs and not file for bankruptcy if we were so close when we did the restructuring. I argued that we had been able to borrow money to sustain those losses but things are looking pretty bad and something must change soon, either fuel goes down or some capacity goes away, and now I read this. There is no way to win this. If we say things are getting bad we screwed up and if we don't we lied about how close we were to BK. Sometimes I wonder why do we bother. I guess we do because we believe that people like these are a minority .... If fuel or industry capacity, items we can't control go back to reasonable levels AA won't need anything from anyone. If you think you have the right to criticize why don't you tell me what do you think we are doing wrong? Who knows I may be able to do something about it.

 

[FWAAA]

No kidding. Arpey speaks at a meeting of airline analysts (as he often does, and as every CEO of every airline often does) - he lays out the current difficulties - and all of a sudden, people begin with their predictions about more concessions.

Revenue for the first half of 2004 was $900 million more than the first half of 2003. Expenses were down significantly (labor alone was down $600 million).

The company's cash balance is currently up nearly $2 billion since the low point of early 2003.

As air guy points out, the company has borrowed lots of money since the concessions. As was widely reported, the company was unable to borrow at affordable rates until the concessions were in place.

Fuel is indeed much more expensive, but that has nothing to do with whether the 2003 concessions were necessary to save the company from a cash crunch. USAir just filed for Ch 11 because they were about $26 million away from a default on their ATSB-backed loan covenants. AMR was very close to the same kind of cash crunch in April, 2003.

AMR is currently looking to modify or replace its fully maxed-out $834 million bank loan because it is likely that the company will not be in compliance with its covenants.

The good thing for AMR is that the bank loan could be repaid today if need be - so AMR is negotiating from a position of strengh, not weakness. Maybe paying it off now wouldn't be so bad an idea - it is essentially a maxed-out credit card. And with $3 billion of unrestricted cash, that is an option available to AMR.

Compare that to USAir, which is now allowed to tap the ATSB collateral for day to day ops because it was unable to find DIP financing.

Compare to UAL, which has no reasonable shot at exit financing and is canceling the pension plans. AMR, on the other hand, made all of its 2004 contributions by June 30.

Compare to DL, which was having problems catering its flights yesterday because Gate Gourmet wants COD terms (since solved by a court injunction, I understand) and is probably going to file for Ch 11 protection by Halloween unless its pilots give back $1 billion each year.

And as others have pointed out, the stock is almost certainly worthless (or severely diluted) if bankruptcy happens.

Stockholders only make a killing if the employees take the concessions (like at AMR last year).

BTW, thanks for taking those concessions.

 

[Oneflyer]

Carty errr... AArpey is starting to cry poor. With UAL ready to throw out its pension plan and USAir racing to see if they can be 1st. AArpey is setting the stage for AAs BK. They are on a plan to show employees how much they are losing. I say they because they make the money allocations, I just do the work. Soon, about 4 to 6 mos AA will want give backs. They will force us to the wall. Hey, if they win they get great low wages if not, they go BK and have the judge throw out the contracts. Lower the wages and get rid of the pensions.

I have officially given up. The stupidity of the unionized workers in this industry is just amazing. I'm updating the resume and puting it up on Monster.com. The white flag is waving.

 

[local 12 proud]

I have officially given up. The stupidity of the unionized workers in this industry is just amazing. I'm updating the resume and puting it up on Monster.com. The white flag is waving.

[post="183707"][/post]​

dont let the door hit you in the a$$

 

[Oneflyer]

dont let the door hit you in the a$$

Let me know how you like the unemployment line, but you're in a union, that kinda like a paycheck.

 

[local 12 proud]

Let me know how you like the unemployment line, but you're in a union, that kinda like a paycheck.

[post="183737"][/post]​

ive worked in this industry for twenty plus years and never had to draw unemployment and my experience came from two other airlines before being hired on with american, my skills will carry me to another if need be, however yours might land you wally world "would you like a cart sir". oh and you will mesh real well with them, they hold the same anti union stance as yourself

 

[PRINCESS KIDAGAKASH]

Trying to stop the downhill slide of the middle class is considered "stupidity". Well buddy you go ahead an find yourself another "pencil pushing" job. It's only a matter of time before you get outsourced too! If something isn't done to stop the B.S. that is going on in this industry or this country for the matter, the U.S.A. is going to become a very poor nation with only a few very rich people and whole bunch of very,very poor people like Mexico. Let's see if history repeats itself. In the early 1900's Argentina was one of the 10 richest nations on earth, but corruption and greed set in,just like in the present U.S.A. Argentina's economy fell and has never recovered.

 

[LiveInAHotel]

I have officially given up. The stupidity of the unionized workers in this industry is just amazing. I'm updating the resume and puting it up on Monster.com. The white flag is waving.

[post="183707"][/post]​

Hey why dont you look here for stupidity: In case you don't understand, look in the mirror!

 

[DFWCC]

<_< Has it started?
Carty errr... AArpey is starting to cry poor. With UAL ready to throw out its pension plan and USAir racing to see if they can be 1st. AArpey is setting the stage for AAs BK. They are on a plan to show employees how much they are losing. I say they because they make the money allocations, I just do the work. Soon, about 4 to 6 mos AA will want give backs. They will force us to the wall. Hey, if they win they get great low wages if not, they go BK and have the judge throw out the contracts. Lower the wages and get rid of the pensions.
Stocks goes up and the stockholders make a killing. AArpey and CAArty live happily ever after.
A win win situation for the luxery suit boys.

[post="183509"][/post]​

Let me say it this way, AA is already pushing a money loosing year. No surprise.
If UAL and USAir succeed in getting rid of their pensions and DL is ready to do the same. Do you think AA will not be at a great cost ASM disadvantage and want lower wages. They will push for concessions ( this may also include pensions) and if the unions give in and avoid BK. Bingo up goes the stock. Make sense?
IF AA does go BK, I am strong to beleive the fancy pants boys are well protected.
Remember the special not touchable retirement fund set up for senior execs, even if AA did go BK?
Gee let me also add I had 16yrs in a non-union envirement and everything went well, then came the brother-in-law effect. The good ol' boy was next. Then the division was sold and the new broom came in to cut salaries. You guessed it all the high dollars were givin their walking papers. Now 20+ yrs later, I am a proud member of the TWU and have been treated more fairly then the previous 16 yrs.
So I have seen both sides of the fence and choose to stay with my union.
I also beleive those who attack my thoughts don't have a clue about me
and you know what "WHO CARES".

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Let me say it this way, AA is already pushing a money loosing year. No surprise.
If UAL and USAir succeed in getting rid of their pensions and DL is ready to do the same. Do you think AA will not be at a great cost ASM disadvantage and want lower wages. They will push for concessions ( this may also include pensions) and if the unions give in and avoid BK. Bingo up goes the stock. Make sense?
IF AA does go BK, I am strong to beleive the fancy pants boys are well protected.
Remember the special not touchable retirement fund set up for senior execs, even if AA did go BK?
Gee let me also add I had 16yrs in a non-union envirement and everything went well, then came the brother-in-law effect. The good ol' boy was next. Then the division was sold and the new broom came in to cut salaries. You guessed it all the high dollars were givin their walking papers. Now 20+ yrs later, I am a proud member of the TWU and have been treated more fairly then the previous 16 yrs.
So I have seen both sides of the fence and choose to stay with my union.
I also beleive those who attack my thoughts don't have a clue about me
and you know what "WHO CARES".

[post="183821"][/post]​

*************************************************************

DFWCC,
"Easy big fella" !!! I detect a sense of Urgency, in your posts.

I rarely disagree with you, and who knows, you may very well be right.
HOWEVER,
(this time), I think you may be mistaken.
Arpey is communicating with Wall street, like he's suppose to.

DFWCC, if AA is getting ready for leaner times, what does that say(financially) for the other "legacy(s)"like NW, and CO ?? (forget about US,UA and DL)

This "fuel thing" is killing EVERYBODY !!! If this fuel thing keeps up much longer, then we will all see "the law of the jungle" kick in OVERNITE.

As I said, forget about US,UA, and DL. I really think CO's "house of cards" ($$$$) is "one stiff FART away" from being "blown over"(true weakness exposed).

(I know you know this), but plz. remember, that somebody's got to fly those INTERNATIONAL trips from the USA.(and it ain't WN,B6, HP, or air tran.)

Predictions.
(IMHO), when the (big) PUSH comes to the (big) SHOVE, we will see AA, and NW, "float" to the top, while US,UA,DL, and CO "flounder"($$$$$$$$).

Back to DL, US, UA, and CO for a moment.

DL, de-hub(s) DFW, who gains ??------ AA ONLY !!!!!!!!

(If) UA shrinks to 1/2 it's size, who gains ??---------AA(ORD), and AA + NW, internationally. Especially Asia.

When US "goes", who "appears" to gain(because "they" have virtually the same routes) ????-------- DL, and CO, AND THAT puts them right in the firing line with WN, B6, and Air Tran. (US shuttle goes to AA).

"This time", I feel that we'll see;
1. Less domestic flights(just like "Uncle Bobby" predicted years ago), which will mean MORE layoffs.

2. More small stations closing(AA to AE).

these are just a few things that IMHO, we'll see--BEFORE-------- they come looking for concessions/pensions.

Your right to become "jittery", because I too feel that the "Grim Reaper" is near, VERY near, however I don't think that DFW, or MSP is on his itinerary.


Time will tell(as usual) !!

Hang tough,

NH/BB's

 

[operaations]

*************************************************************
NHBB

Very well put. I agree with you 100 percent. WEhat do you think about AMR making AE the Domestic Carrier. They are already an in house LCC. Only leaving AA with some Trans Cons and international routes. I do not know how easy this coiuld be done But it seems like it may work.

let me know your opinion on this I would like to hear it


DFWCC,
"Easy big fella" !!! I detect a sense of Urgency, in your posts.

I rarely disagree with you, and who knows, you may very well be right.
HOWEVER,
(this time), I think you may be mistaken.
Arpey is communicating with Wall street, like he's suppose to.

DFWCC, if AA is getting ready for leaner times, what does that say(financially) for the other "legacy(s)"like NW, and CO ?? (forget about US,UA and DL)

This "fuel thing" is killing EVERYBODY !!! If this fuel thing keeps up much longer, then we will all see "the law of the jungle" kick in OVERNITE.

As I said, forget about US,UA, and DL. I really think CO's "house of cards" ($$$$) is "one stiff FART away" from being "blown over"(true weakness exposed).

(I know you know this), but plz. remember, that somebody's got to fly those INTERNATIONAL trips from the USA.(and it ain't WN,B6, HP, or air tran.)

Predictions.
(IMHO), when the (big) PUSH comes to the (big) SHOVE, we will see AA, and NW, "float" to the top, while US,UA,DL, and CO "flounder"($$$$$$$$).

Back to DL, US, UA, and CO for a moment.

DL, de-hub(s) DFW, who gains ??------ AA ONLY !!!!!!!!

(If) UA shrinks to 1/2 it's size, who gains ??---------AA(ORD), and AA + NW, internationally. Especially Asia.

When US "goes", who "appears" to gain(because "they" have virtually the same routes) ????-------- DL, and CO, AND THAT puts them right in the firing line with WN, B6, and Air Tran. (US shuttle goes to AA).

"This time", I feel that we'll see;
1. Less domestic flights(just like "Uncle Bobby" predicted years ago), which will mean MORE layoffs.

2. More small stations closing(AA to AE).

these are just a few things that IMHO, we'll see--BEFORE-------- they come looking for concessions/pensions.

Your right to become "jittery", because I too feel that the "Grim Reaper" is near, VERY near, however I don't think that DFW, or MSP is on his itinerary.
Time will tell(as usual) !!

Hang tough,

NH/BB's

[post="183847"][/post]​

 

[jimntx]

Though moving all domestic flying to AE has been AMR's "rumored strategy" for years, remember that there are large groups of represented employees that would have to be dealt with. Think AA/TWA, then think about how do you merge AE and AA flight attendants and pilots.

Granted there are relatively few "senior mamas" at AE, but there are some. And, considering the unwillingness of a large number of AA f/as to "give up even 1 digit of my seniority," a merger of the two seniority lists would not be a cakewalk. And, they are represented by different unions with their own agendas.

Operaations, don't automatically assume that AE is an in-house LCC. The starting pay for an AE flight attendant is currently $17.67/hr (or thereabouts), and their new contract is under negotiation even as we speak. After not quite 3 years at AA, at the time of my furlough, I was making $22.10/hr. That's a difference of only $332/mo gross for a 75 hour month between a 1st day f/a and a 3 year flight attendant. And, at AA there weren't all that many of us making that little.

As recalls continue to happen, you have only 708 furloughees left that are making near the bottom of the scale, then you have approx. 4,000 f/as making top of scale (former TWA) to recall before you get back to f/as making near the bottom of the scale. A merger of AA and AE would have to take the AA furloughees into account or the lawsuits would never end. {Hell, who am I kidding? If there were a merger of the lists, I would not be happy if AE flight attendants with only 1 or 2 years were still flying while I was on furlough.} Plus, you have some former TWA flight attendants currently flying at AE who were "junior" to me on the AA Seniority List. To paraphrase the song...I smell a mess coming on! (Consider that if the July refusal rate of 20% becomes the new norm, there are only 565 furloughees above the most senior former TWA f/a!)

This, of course, is all conjecture at this point. We haven't even addressed the pilot situation--some pilots furloughed at both companies while some furloughed at one are working at the other. Oy Vey! And, there is the little issue of getting all the AA and AE a/c combined on one certificate, plus cross-training the entire domestic f/a corps--upwards of 20,000 when you combine AA and AE--on all the different a/c.