....."HUSH MONEY"..........

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

***** NOTE: My new thread title should have read, AA to be able to PURCHASE Asain Routes. My BAD !

With the "talks" between DL/NW,.....and UA/CO...Really heating up(Today WSJ), a perspective on what AA might/could do.

It's NO secret, that Anderson(DL), Steenland(NW), Tilton(UA) and CO...ALL want to DEAL w/each other, before BUSH (DOJ) leaves office !!

Is it Possible,........and SO Simplistic that,......................(Texas)AA could convey to(Texas)BUSH, that it would "sit QUIET", while these deals go down, providing AA get to Buy..2-3 China awards(WHO CARES who sells them ), and an agreement to purchase, at a fair price, the A/C needed to fly the "new" China routes ????????????

(routes)

JFK/PEK
JFK/PVG

ORD/CAN


(A/C)
Specifically needed from DL, their 777-200LR Worldliners(for JFK)

Excess(same engine) 767-300/400's from CO/DL
Excess(same engine) 757-200/300 from whomever
A-330's(from NW) to replace the A-300's
Excess 737-800's(same engine) from DL/CO.

Again, could it come down to something as Simple as this ?????

 

[WingNaPrayer]

Oh good lawd Bear, have you started wearing the Reynolds Aluminum Hat Spring Collection already?

The assumption on your part, while preposterous, would certainly make some good gossip fodder for the pupoff site!

Do you really think AA would sit back and ignore mergers, which would result in having to give up the "world's largest airline" moniker for some stinking China routes? Their stockholders would eat them alive!

 

[ZMAN777]

With the "talks" between DL/NW,.....and UA/CO...Really heating up(Today WSJ), a perspective on what AA might/could do.

It's NO secret, that Anderson(DL), Steenland(NW), Tilton(UA) and CO...ALL want to DEAL w/each other, before BUSH (DOJ) leaves office !!

Is it Possible,........and SO Simplistic that,......................(Texas)AA could convey to(Texas)BUSH, that it would "sit QUIET", while these deals go down, providing AA get to Buy..2-3 China awards(WHO CARES who sells them ), and an agreement to purchase, at a fair price, the A/C needed to fly the "new" China routes ????????????

NHBB,

Do you actually think about what you write before you press "send""? YGBSM!

Cheers,
Z B)

 

[BoeingBoy]

NHBB's

Don't tell me that you're coming around to agreeing with me.......

My guess (and that's all it is) is that AA will be content to see what assets become available with any required divestitures and pick what they want.

Jim

Note, however, that I'm not implying that the DOT would require certain divestitures by merger partners just because AA wanted those assets. But I could certainly see some required divestitures being desirable to AA.

Jim

 

[Connected1]

(1) Assuming AA doesn't ultimately outbid DL for NW, and
(2) regardless of what happens with UA/CO...

...my opinion is AA's next best option is to significantly tighten its east- and west-bound international partnerships with non-US airlines. The more I think about this situation, the more I think it's a crappy idea to go through an anti-trust approval process and a combination of employee workforces in order to get stuck with larger share of a massive yet dead-end US domestic marketplace. The scariest part of a DL/NW merger is their close tie-up with AF/KL, not the combined DL/NW carrier on its own.

In the long run, the money is in doing the hard part -- international travel. To be able to retain the high yielding multinational corporate travel deals, airlines will need to be able to supply and leverage tightly-integrated global networks in the future. Short haul domestic operations are always going to be burdened by race-to-the-bottom service, amateur low-cost startups, and the perpetual conundrum caused by seniority lists that give startup airlines an inherent cost advantage. The international market is way too broad, complex, and service-oriented to be poisoned by a single startup airline.

I don't want to be the world's largest airline if it means that I have to acquire 30% of the garbage domestic market to do it. I would much rather be a part of the world's largest and tightly integrated network of carriers. Let the WN's of the world trash the domestic market by using completely unrelated investment gains to subsidize predation. They're really good at that, and I want no part of it. It just isn't worth the time, effort, and investment.

Forget this b.s. about backroom deals and political controversies. There's plenty of opportunity available via the mechanisms that are already freely available.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

NHBB's

Don't tell me that you're coming around to agreeing with me.......



Note, however, that I'm not implying that the DOT would require certain divestitures by merger partners just because AA wanted those assets. But I could certainly see some required divestitures being desirable to AA.

Jim

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

JIM(BB),
It is always a PLEASURE to commiserate with one of the most INTELLIGENT members on this board.
(Obviously I'm NOT talking about YOU....z-man !!!!!!!!!!!!


Wingnaprayer DOES have a Valid point about AA NOT waiting around to see what MIGHT become available, and to be honest, my favorite wish/hope would be for AA to "outbid" ANYONE for NW, However, you make an EQUALLY Valid point as well, because AA is showing NO interest in expanding Domestically, and with the Exception of CHINA, can fly Internationally, on short notice, to ANY place that they may not now fly to.
There-in lies "my" quandry.

Is it ..."WNP", or is it.."BB",................Is it LEFT, or is it RIGHT,........Is IT "A", or is it "B" ????????????

Remember this about AA(International), back in the 90's. Even After CRANDALL "blinked" at PA's Asian routes that UAL picked up, and created a Magnificent International route structure, Crandall simply picked and Chose AA International routes Carefully(In MY opinion, AA should have flown MORE International routes in that time period)...BUT...("uncle") Bobby was running the show, and NOT me.

Despite UAL's Great WW system, AA "out earned" $$$$ UA, virtually every year, in this period, which told WALL street, that CRANDALL DEFINITELY knew what he was doing !!

Which(now) brings me BACK to my(present) Quandry, once the M+A ball starts rolling :unsure: :unsure:

 

[Hi-C-Camp]

Despite UAL's Great WW system, AA "out earned" $$$$ UA, virtually every year, in this period, which told WALL street, that CRANDALL DEFINITELY knew what he was doing !!

Which(now) brings me BACK to my(present) Quandry, once the M+A ball starts rolling :unsure: :unsure:
[/quo

After scrounging through these posts on the DAL NWA and UAL AA sites, I decided to join and post.. I have to tell you, AA did not outperform UAL or any other airline relative to their size, actually they UNDERPERFORMED in earnings and other areas, but thats not important b/c we are talking about M&A here, right??? Opinions seems to change often on this board... AMR is not in the best position to partake in the M&A game, and as stated many times before they don't have the best track record in that arena.. Furthermore, if DAL could not get an approval for a NWA merger then AMR wouldn't have a snowballs chance.. Next, NWA is in a MUCH better financial position than AMR, They are not a target for a takeover b/c they are not in BK.. If DAL/NWA hookup and UAL/CAL it will be a worse nightnmare for AMR and US, AMR will take the backseat, like they did prior to 2001 and the acquisition of TWA, and no longer be the largest. The next step might be to try and hook-up with ALASKA to capture some more west coast prescence where they are weak.. No one will divest China routes as "some" have fantasies of on here... None of the partners have overlapping China routes to divest in the first place.. AMR may counter offer, but thats it... It is obvious that no one is interested in AMR or they would be invited to the table to talk, I haven't heard their name in any official news yet though... Am I missing something???

 

[L1011Ret]

After the TWA seniority fiasco and the ensuing legal problems, it is hard to imagine anyone wanting to partner up with AA. The old expression, "what goes around comes around" comes to mind. you real what you sow...

 

[FWAAA]

The 777LRs aren't needed for JFK-China; CO manages EWR-HKG and EWR-China with plain ole 777ERs. AA can do the same. And, I suspect, it will.

And if AA received 14 weekly frequencies, I'd place them LAX-PEK and LAX-PVG ahead of JFK. JFK is huge, but it's at the edge of the USA for connections. LAX is well-connected to most of the USA. Besides, CO will take care of the NYC O&D for a while.

On whether AA is gonna jump in headfirst, I'm coming around to agreeing with BoeingBoy also. AA can pick up any desirable pieces if DoJ requires divestitures and can benefit from the reduced capacity without the merger headaches and expenses.

After all, China access and NRT Fifth Freedoms didn't save UA or NW from their bankruptcies, and having more China is no guarantee that they won't revisit Ch 11 again. CO's financials have been enviable and it's nowhere near the largest. Perhaps AA should simply try to be more like CO.

 

[The Goose]

The 777LRs aren't needed for JFK-China; CO manages EWR-HKG and EWR-China with plain ole 777ERs. AA can do the same. And, I suspect, it will.

And if AA received 14 weekly frequencies, I'd place them LAX-PEK and LAX-PVG ahead of JFK. JFK is huge, but it's at the edge of the USA for connections. LAX is well-connected to most of the USA. Besides, CO will take care of the NYC O&D for a while.

On whether AA is gonna jump in headfirst, I'm coming around to agreeing with BoeingBoy also. AA can pick up any desirable pieces if DoJ requires divestitures and can benefit from the reduced capacity without the merger headaches and expenses.

After all, China access and NRT Fifth Freedoms didn't save UA or NW from their bankruptcies, and having more China is no guarantee that they won't revisit Ch 11 again. CO's financials have been enviable and it's nowhere near the largest. Perhaps AA should simply try to be more like CO.

You speak as though DL & NWA's bankruptcy filings were business necessities rather than strategic moves.

Granted, no guarantee of an airline never again filing bankruptcy, but with the re-written laws a guarantee of the BK filings being less of a business-as-usual move than it has been. A good bet would also be the PBGC won't "overlook" airlines assets as they did with United's frequent flyer program as they did (and agreed not to bring further action later).

AA will have to do something re: aircraft as Arpey and minions have been too busy posturing for the pilot's benefit and not figuring a way to aqquire new equipment unless by aqquisition of an entity with orders on the books of Boeing. At this point, that's probably the only way without a 6 year long line - you're definitely right about that.

 

[Hi-C-Camp]

The 777LRs aren't needed for JFK-China; CO manages EWR-HKG and EWR-China with plain ole 777ERs. AA can do the same. And, I suspect, it will.

And if AA received 14 weekly frequencies, I'd place them LAX-PEK and LAX-PVG ahead of JFK. JFK is huge, but it's at the edge of the USA for connections. LAX is well-connected to most of the USA. Besides, CO will take care of the NYC O&D for a while.

On whether AA is gonna jump in headfirst, I'm coming around to agreeing with BoeingBoy also. AA can pick up any desirable pieces if DoJ requires divestitures and can benefit from the reduced capacity without the merger headaches and expenses.

After all, China access and NRT Fifth Freedoms didn't save UA or NW from their bankruptcies, and having more China is no guarantee that they won't revisit Ch 11 again. CO's financials have been enviable and it's nowhere near the largest. Perhaps AA should simply try to be more like CO.

Well, I believe goose was right FWAAA, Sometimes BK isn't a MUST, it is more of a strategic move... AMR could have and still can file BK, not because they have to but b/c they want too... Nothing will stop you from filing, sometimes people have a very difficult time understanding that. I also believe that AMR is crazy if they think that US won't want a piece of that pie as well, So i would take that 14 frequency down to a 7 at most... Looks like things are finally going to start changing...

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Some valid points made here, by a number of people.

Here IS where my Logic(as a previous 20+ year AA employee is at)

1. NW doesn't need a deal, has a very good balance sheet. Positioned well for "tomorrow"

2. DL needs an "Asian deal", but otherwise appears to be headed in the right $$$$ direction, with a LARGE Non-Union force.

Granted the combined has too must domestic for my liking.

Now, you combine the two............Bingo, they've become the largest in the WORLD, and(Oh by the way) they have the World COVERED, with NW's 787's "around the corner"

Now to AA.

And BEFORE I start with AA,...................Anyone if free to show YOUR IMMENSE....I G N O R A N C E..by equating AA/TWA as a failed deal, without taking Into account..."9/11" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Back to AA;

It's NOT in their "DNA" to sit back, like a bump on a log,..........H O P E I N G a "juicy tidbit" MAY pass their way :down:

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

The 777LRs aren't needed for JFK-China; CO manages EWR-HKG and EWR-China with plain ole 777ERs. AA can do the same. And, I suspect, it will.

And if AA received 14 weekly frequencies, I'd place them LAX-PEK and LAX-PVG ahead of JFK. JFK is huge, but it's at the edge of the USA for connections. LAX is well-connected to most of the USA. Besides, CO will take care of the NYC O&D for a while.

On whether AA is gonna jump in headfirst, I'm coming around to agreeing with BoeingBoy also. AA can pick up any desirable pieces if DoJ requires divestitures and can benefit from the reduced capacity without the merger headaches and expenses.

After all, China access and NRT Fifth Freedoms didn't save UA or NW from their bankruptcies, and having more China is no guarantee that they won't revisit Ch 11 again. CO's financials have been enviable and it's nowhere near the largest. Perhaps AA should simply try to be more like CO.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


FWAAA,

Plz ck. your PM's !!

 

[FWAAA]

You speak as though DL & NWA's bankruptcy filings were business necessities rather than strategic moves.

No, you missed the point, which was this: Despite the popular view that China and NRT Fifth Freedoms are a license to print money, those rights didn't prevent multi-billion dollar losses at UA or NW. They didn't prevent employees from suffering massive paycuts and furloughs at UA or NW. UA's finances were in the toilet in 2000, well before the terrorist attacks. Everyone else except for US made money that year. Bottom line? China and NRT Fifth Freedoms may not be the end-all everyone proclaims them to be. So substitute the multi-billion dollar losses, huge pay concessions and furloughs for the word "bankruptcy" if that helps you avoid the off-topic tangent you ran down and helps you understand that China and NRT may not be the panacea everyone thinks they are.

Take the off-topic tin-foil hat discussion of whether UA or NW should have been allowed to file Ch 11 in the first place somewhere else.

Granted, no guarantee of an airline never again filing bankruptcy, but with the re-written laws a guarantee of the BK filings being less of a business-as-usual move than it has been. A good bet would also be the PBGC won't "overlook" airlines assets as they did with United's frequent flyer program as they did (and agreed not to bring further action later).

Again - conspiracy theories about the propriety of other airline bankruptcies are off-topic here.

AA will have to do something re: aircraft as Arpey and minions have been too busy posturing for the pilot's benefit and not figuring a way to aqquire new equipment unless by aqquisition of an entity with orders on the books of Boeing. At this point, that's probably the only way without a 6 year long line - you're definitely right about that.

Actually, there are no 6 year long lines at Boeing if you're AA. In the fourth quarter, AA accelerated more 738 deliveries to 2009 and even ordered four more beyond the 47 long-deferred orders. Boeing will deliver 23 738s to AA next year, all of which were scheduled by AA in 2007. AA will take another 28 738s by 2012 and will probably schedule more this year. AA's purchase rights permit it to schedule delivery within 18 months of firm orders. AA can also take delivery of new 787s within 18 months of the first 787 delivery, thanks to those purchase rights. New 777s can be had within 18 months of order as well. Thanks for playing - Come again.

 

[The Goose]

No, you missed the point, which was this: Despite the popular view that China and NRT Fifth Freedoms are a license to print money, those rights didn't prevent multi-billion dollar losses at UA or NW. They didn't prevent employees from suffering massive paycuts and furloughs at UA or NW. UA's finances were in the toilet in 2000, well before the terrorist attacks. Everyone else except for US made money that year. Bottom line? China and NRT Fifth Freedoms may not be the end-all everyone proclaims them to be. So substitute the multi-billion dollar losses, huge pay concessions and furloughs for the word "bankruptcy" if that helps you avoid the off-topic tangent you ran down and helps you understand that China and NRT may not be the panacea everyone thinks they are.

Gee - I wasn't aware I was implying all that.

Take the off-topic tin-foil hat discussion of whether UA or NW should have been allowed to file Ch 11 in the first place somewhere else.

Not an issue of being "allowed". The proper word is fraud.

Again - conspiracy theories about the propriety of other airline bankruptcies are off-topic here.

"Off Topic" - is that a catch-all like AA's Famous Rule 32?

Actually, there are no 6 year long lines at Boeing if you're AA. In the fourth quarter, AA accelerated more 738 deliveries to 2009 and even ordered four more beyond the 47 long-deferred orders. Boeing will deliver 23 738s to AA next year, all of which were scheduled by AA in 2007. AA will take another 28 738s by 2012 and will probably schedule more this year. AA's purchase rights permit it to schedule delivery within 18 months of firm orders. AA can also take delivery of new 787s within 18 months of the first 787 delivery, thanks to those purchase rights. New 777s can be had within 18 months of order as well. Thanks for playing - Come again.

Thank you for your extreme knowledge re: an industry you (by your own admission) are not nor have ever been employed in.

There was a story about the good Lord, in His abundance, making more horses' posteriors than he built horses to attach them to ...