eolesen
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In Scott Walker Recall Race, Organized Labor’s Pick Falls Short
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Kev3188
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Moot point now, I suppose, since Falk lost last night... I'm not sure she'd have been the most viable candidate anyway, regardless of union backing. If memory serves, she lost a run for governor before, and one for AG (a primary) as well.
Looking at Barrett, I can't help but think of John Kerry; nice enough, certainly knowledgeable on issues, but no real charisma to speak of. In the run up to last night's primary, the polls had him in an almost dead heat with Walker. Now that it's a rerun of the '10 race, it'll be interesting to see how- or if- those numbers change.
Looking at Barrett, I can't help but think of John Kerry; nice enough, certainly knowledgeable on issues, but no real charisma to speak of. In the run up to last night's primary, the polls had him in an almost dead heat with Walker. Now that it's a rerun of the '10 race, it'll be interesting to see how- or if- those numbers change.
Kev3188
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Irony is a campaign pledge of 250k new jobs, then leading the nation in job loss.
That said, I'm consistently surprised at low voter turnout, whether it's for city council, representation votes, recall primaries, etc.
That said, I'm consistently surprised at low voter turnout, whether it's for city council, representation votes, recall primaries, etc.
eolesen
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True about the job losses, except that few people are reporting this in context: of the 23,900 jobs lost in Wisconsin, 17,900 were from the public sector and 6,000 were from the private sector.
For those who don't do math, 75% of the jobs lost were government jobs. That's why Wisconsin's budget is finally balanced.
Walker's opponents haven't been able to touch that. All they can do is try and point to scandals, because he's doing the job he was elected to do, which is to balance out the state's budget without more tax hikes.
Something else that's starting to come out --- turnout was estimated at 30-35%, and Walker still got more votes than Barrett and Falk combined...
And yet another thing to consider... university students were a big part of the recall effort. The petitions were signed with classes in session. The primary was held with classes in session.
UW is out on May 20th, and their summer session doesn't start until June 18th. How many UW students are registered in Madison versus their home town? Could it be enough to screw up the recall? With the polling being as close as it currently is, possibly.
I think the steam has run out of the recall movement. Wisconsin is showing positive signs of recovery from Doyle's tenure, and Barrett may actually have a slightly worse record to try and defend.
For those who don't do math, 75% of the jobs lost were government jobs. That's why Wisconsin's budget is finally balanced.
Walker's opponents haven't been able to touch that. All they can do is try and point to scandals, because he's doing the job he was elected to do, which is to balance out the state's budget without more tax hikes.
Something else that's starting to come out --- turnout was estimated at 30-35%, and Walker still got more votes than Barrett and Falk combined...
And yet another thing to consider... university students were a big part of the recall effort. The petitions were signed with classes in session. The primary was held with classes in session.
UW is out on May 20th, and their summer session doesn't start until June 18th. How many UW students are registered in Madison versus their home town? Could it be enough to screw up the recall? With the polling being as close as it currently is, possibly.
I think the steam has run out of the recall movement. Wisconsin is showing positive signs of recovery from Doyle's tenure, and Barrett may actually have a slightly worse record to try and defend.
eolesen
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http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Governor/2012/Primary/WI
Roughly 646,500 votes for Republicans versus 670,200 for Democrats.
Two things stick out to me here ---
First, Walker didn't have a serious contender, but almost as many Republicans showed up at the polls as Democrats (especially if you consider some of the cross-over voters who were said to be supporting Falk).
Second, there were over 900,000 signatures on the recall petitions, yet the votes cast were only about 66% of the total who signed the petitions.
My guess 27 days out -- Walker wins by at least the same margin as he did in 2010.
Roughly 646,500 votes for Republicans versus 670,200 for Democrats.
Two things stick out to me here ---
First, Walker didn't have a serious contender, but almost as many Republicans showed up at the polls as Democrats (especially if you consider some of the cross-over voters who were said to be supporting Falk).
Second, there were over 900,000 signatures on the recall petitions, yet the votes cast were only about 66% of the total who signed the petitions.
My guess 27 days out -- Walker wins by at least the same margin as he did in 2010.
Kev3188
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Speaking of context, I don't think they're "losses," so much as a dash for the exits by people eligible to retire.
Conversely, Walker no longer talks much about job creation, but more about jobs saved. A bit disingenuous on his part, since most of the jobs "saved" were due to vacancies created by the above.
Vinehout tried to- and had some very pragmatic solutions to put forward- but was hopelessly drowned out by Falk, and later Barrett.
That said, I personally think that the John Doe scandal is a much larger threat to Walker's stay in MSN than Barrett is. IIRC, they'll have 2 debates between now and 6/5. if Barrett comes off like he did last time, it may be over. If he comes out on fire, it'll be a nice change.
If you combine all 4 legit candidates' totals, I think it gets much much closer. I also think a lot of people sat this one out just waiting for 6/5.
I know the voter suppression rules weren't in place yesterday, but maybe you're onto something here. I haven't seen enough data to see how the area around UW participated to comment authoritatively.
Disagree here. IMO, it's still going strong. There may not be 100k at the capitol every weekend, but people have had enough. I'm not sure what signs of recovery you're referring to, but I'm not seeing it.
As for respective rcords, I think we'll see more focus on this come the debates. Both are basically from the same 'hood, and while
Speaking of $$$, Kohl-Riggs got ~7 votes per dollar spent. Walker spent $33 per vote.
See my above comments about waiting for the main event.
My guess is it's much closer (with higher turnout as well).
eolesen
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I've got lots of extended family & friends scattered about (Kenosha, Green Bay, Elkhorn, & Marinette). They're more pissed that there was a recall to begin with. I know the rest of the state isn't enough to overcome MKE & MSN, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a little more red on the map come November.
eolesen
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Perhaps, but how much was spent on the recall drive and the demonstrations last year? It wouldn't surprise me if the cost of both comes out to be a wash by the time the votes are counted.
I know, that cost doesn't have to be disclosed, but the unions pulled out all the stops when it came to forcing the referendum, yet they couldn't get out the votes.
Maybe it really is what Kev is saying -- they're keeping dry powder for the big election -- but that can work both ways.
I know, that cost doesn't have to be disclosed, but the unions pulled out all the stops when it came to forcing the referendum, yet they couldn't get out the votes.
Maybe it really is what Kev is saying -- they're keeping dry powder for the big election -- but that can work both ways.
signals
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http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/newly-released-video-shows-walkers-divide-and-conquer-strategy-against-labor.php?ref=fpa
In your industry, this strategy is called US Airways!
In your industry, this strategy is called US Airways!
Kev3188
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Yes we will.
You following the John Doe probe at all? Interesting developments with Tim Russell's trial...
You following the John Doe probe at all? Interesting developments with Tim Russell's trial...
