Indicators Show The "ship Of Fools" Is Sinking!

OldpropGuy

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Aug 20, 2002
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It's amazing! The sad truth is finally evident. Does anyone else notice how the tone of the news articles has seemingly shifted, to past tense for US Airways?

Dave's interview in:
USA Today
If this was another public attempt by Dave to force his hand in negotiations with the labor groups, I think it may have backfired as in the past. The extremely negative tone of this whole article should assure any doubters that US Airways is a dying company with no possible hope for survival!

Then we have:
Pittsburgh Live
The theme of this article is the changes which will be evident in PIT when US Airways pulls out and then they throw in "US Airways isn't a safe bet to survive. A quick trip through Chapter 11 bankruptcy didn't cure its problems."

We also have Bronner's statement, from a couple of weeks ago, concerning the necessary sale of assets. This was enough to alleviate the inattention of anyone in the financial world and produced the resultant drop in the company's credit rating! This seems to be a small consequence which was overlooked. That was followed by Dave's letter verifying the bad news.

Don't think the passengers don't notice, as shown in:
Passenger Rights If Default On Loan?

Now we have the labor groups unenthusiastically ready to view the illusive latest plan. However they are not willing to blindly give again, to a leader they no longer trust. His broken promises and failed reasoning of the past could justify such a stance.

Then he wisely attempts to combine two of the wholly-owned subsidiaries, Allegheny and Piedmont, probably preparing them for easier sale. The problem is management's usual way of doing business with the employees. He threw out a take it or leave it option to them, on the company's terms, with a ten day deadline, yes or no period, not open for discussion. This action is a clear violation of the carriers working agreements under the Railway Labor Act, and could be declared a major dispute. If this is the case, this would allow expedited legal procedures and other rights, including work stoppage, if both sides cannot reach an agreement.Why should these pilot groups trust management, having been refused the RJ's their contracts promised in return for concessions? BTW, ALPA National has been surprisingly quiet about this merger!

While these two companies are only a small part of US Airways, they do furnish a large portion of the feed to the hubs. There is no capacity for the other regionals to quickly replace this shortfall in service, should they agree to perform such struck work! Will US Airway be able to able to survive the further losses induced by such action? Will the resulting negative press about an already failing airline cause their credit rating to drop even further, impairing groups' financing for the new regional jets or any other aircraft?

Does the future appear bleak? You decide and plan accordingly.
 
someone better tell usa320: :shock: United Airlines, still in Chapter 11, also has reason for concern. The prospect of a US Airways loan default might discourage the ATSB from guaranteeing a loan for United, which seeks a loan twice the size of US Airways' loan. United also had counted on $200 million a year in revenue from its deal with US Airways to market flights on each other's planes
 
OldPropGuy,

Excellently put. To use a flying analogy, we are in a flat spin and running out of altitude to recover.

From my viewpoint, all this talk of further concessions is an attempt to make it to July 1 when the ATSB mandated "liquidity" requirements drop drastically. Likewise for the possible asset sales. Long term survivavility depends on truly resturcturing the airline by adopting the many ideas expressed in this forum. In the nearly 10 months since emerging from bankruptcy (not counting the time therein) management has done nothing toward this end. Even if we can squeak by on the liquidity issue, there is little time left to implement a true restructuring. Meanwhile we sink further into the morass.

Jim
 
Why should UAL be concerned with US' survival? I understand the codeshare thing
However is it because the Govt is watching to see what happens to US to make a decision to UAL for their loan thing?
 
robbedagain said:
Why should UAL be concerned with US' survival? I understand the codeshare thing
However is it because the Govt is watching to see what happens to US to make a decision to UAL for their loan thing?
UAL's ATSB application is being held hostage by USAir's inability to meet it's loan requirements! :D :D :p :p

(sorry, I couldn't resist...)
 
OldpropGuy said:
It's amazing! The sad truth is finally evident. Does anyone else notice how the tone of the news articles has seemingly shifted, to past tense for US Airways?
Anyone think TPG might be interested in another shot or have the Daves driven any remaining value out of US? Anyone from ALPA shopping US around to anyone to get the current guys out of here? (I know ALPA has no ability to sell US, but they can sell TPG on the idea that there is actually money to be made here if there were someone running it who is interested in making money with an airline.)
 
:( Yes ... I truly believe that USAirways is in the final stages of it's demise .... aided and abbeted by RSA and the "Concession Stand is Closed" mentality. Simply put ... we were finally "outfoxed" by the sharper young LCC folks! For me that all started with the failed Peoples Express, but the efforts never ceased. The basically rediculious wage increses over the past 10 yrs at U added nails to the coffin. The "Full Pay 'till the Last Day" will come to frutation in short order!

Good Luck to us All ...
 
2BorNot2B said:
:( Yes ... I truly believe that USAirways is in the final stages of it's demise .... aided and abbeted by RSA and the "Concession Stand is Closed" mentality. Simply put ... we were finally "outfoxed" by the sharper young LCC folks! For me that all started with the failed Peoples Express, but the efforts never ceased. The basically rediculious wage increses over the past 10 yrs at U added nails to the coffin. The "Full Pay 'till the Last Day" will come to frutation in short order!

Good Luck to us All ...
Revenue - cost = earnings. It is my job as a business owner to ensure that revenue exceeds my costs. I advertise, I sell, I get my brand out to my prospective customers. It is UAIR management's responsibility to do the same and it is in this that they have failed. It is not "high" wages or anything else. It is basic business. So much for Harvard yard.