Industry Consolidation?

USA320Pilot

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May 18, 2003
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Since the US Airways - United merger was terminated there has been continued news media speculation that the business partners would once again try to complete a corporate combination. David Bronner has publicly said on four occasions that he was interested in buying United assets if they became available and last month Dow Jones reported that former chief executive officer Dave Siegel rushed to get out of bankruptcy so US Airways could merge with United.

Separately, Siegel was very outspoken that industry consolidation will occur and that US Airways will be a part of that integration, but an open question is who will fly and operate the Arlington-based carriers assets post combination.

As the industry attempts to figure out how to evolve two interesting articles were published this week.

According to Dow Jones, the United Air Lines Creditors Committee in the bankruptcy case are seeking court permission to hire an outside consultant for an evaulation of the airline's board of directors, according to court documents.

"The committee respects the efforts of the individual members of UAL's current board," the group said. "Nevertheless, as the committee focuses on the future of UAL and its stakeholders, it must consider whether the board is ideally positioned for guiding UAL into the future." The creditors have asked Judge Eugene R. Wedoff of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois for permission to hire Heidrick & Struggles International Inc to aid in the review. The matter has been slated for the airline's May 21 court hearing, Dow Jones said.

This creates the obvious question of if the Untied reorganization was proceeding on schedule and had the full support of the creditors than why are the creditors hiring an outside firm to evaluate the performance of the Board?

See Story

Separately, it appears that United is having more difficulty emerging from Chapter 11, with a major new hurdle t o overcome: skyrocketing fuel prices. The company has told the court and investors that the carrier will have more than $450 million additional fuel expense in 2004 than forecast, which obviously could jeopardize the loan guarantee application.

The severity of the fuel crisis was high lighted today in a column published by Reuters.

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United’s troubles are deepening because the company asked the bankruptcy court to extend $1 billion in debtor-in-possession financing until the end of the year from mid-year, further indicating the company is having a challenge trying to emerge.

See Story

Thus, what could this mean to US Airways in its effort to restructure and survive, in one form or another?

Its unclear how this could evolve, but according to industry observers US Airways’ second quarter financial statement indicates there is more to the story.

Meanwhile today the USA Today reported that Federal officials have been lobbied more quietly on another sensitive topic: airline consolidation. Faced with the possibility of financial failure, US Airways has been building a case in Washington that an airline merger wouldn't be a bad thing.

"We've been very frank with regulators and legislators that consolidation is the inevitable next step," says US Airways executive Chris Chiames.

US Airways is in far worse shape than it was three years ago when Justice nixed its deal with United, citing the likelihood of higher fares and reduced competition. The airline hasn't made money since leaving bankruptcy protection last year. Its CEO and chief financial officer recently resigned, and the airline suggested in a securities filing this month that it might be headed back into Chapter 11.

In the case of US Airways, a prospective buyer could use the "failing firm" argument to win Justice's approval. That means the company being acquired can't survive on its own, and letting it disappear from the marketplace would be worse for consumers than a merger.

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With the industry continuing to hold M&A discussions and US Airways’ new business plan similar in scope to America West Airlines, could the Arlington-based carrier be positioning it self to combine with America West? Would it make sense to integrate the only two carriers that have or are creating a hub-and-spoke/LCC business model? If true, the intent could be to create synergy and economies of scale between US Airways’ East Coast, Caribbean, and Transatlantic network with America West’s West Coast presence and then leverage the international breath of the Star Alliance, as a means to provide a revenue premium to the LCC’s cost strurcture. In light of United’s problems and the difficulty the business partners have had in integrating, could a US Airways – America West marriage be David Bronner’s new strategy?

If true, a continued open question remains: who will be US Airways’ eventual partner and who will be the surviving business enterprise?

Or could the chairman of the board decide it is no longer worth it to run an airline and decide that its better to liquidate the company, take the write off, and recover as much of RSA's investment as possible?

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot
 
How many times are you gonna post this? You all ready posted it in another thread!
 
700UW:

700UW said: "How many times are you gonna post this? You all ready posted it in another thread!"

USA320Pilot asks: I did? Where, my friend?

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
USA320,

Consolidation does not necessarily mean merger or acquisition. It could mean fragmentation or liquidation. It also could mean fewer companies or aircraft. The money for the pipe dream you so long for just doesn't exist.

JB Guppy
 
Wow... Was that the longest "no news" post or what?

Basically, not much has changed... UAL still in BK, and still attempting to emerge. It should come as no surprise that UAL is having issues with the cost of fuel (name an airline that isn't?). And of course, these dire straits for UAL mean they won't have the cash to acquire US Airways

US Airways still has no viable business plan, and by convincing the fed's it is a "failing firm", they convince me that they cannot find a way to be successful. And of course, they have a looming cash crunch coming this winter.

Why would America West want to acquire US Airways and its problems? Because they have a route structure that doesn't make money?

I see a lot of valuable pieces to US Airways, however, in this case, it doesn't seem like the whole is of greater value than the sum of the parts.

Oh yeah, for those of you keeping score:

US Airways/United merger: 10,000 mentions (an estimate)
US Airways/Northwest merger: 1-2 mentions
US Airways/America West merger: 1 mention
US Airways Liquidation: 1 mention
 
700UW-

Eleven minutes from Pilot's post until yours. A record, even for you.

Your continuous personal attacks on Pilot are getting monotonous. If you disagree, cite your source. Please don't shadow every post as you are not adding anything to the dialogue.

And if you are as unhappy as your posts portray, let me echo the person from last month who suggested you find another job. Fast.
 
The three major variables are David Bronner's ego, his $25 billion retirement fund, and only 55 million shares of US Airways common outstanding.

If US Airways can stabilize its financial picture and become profitable the company would have a very high P/E and multiple, which would change the whole scenario.

However, let's be realitstic, time is running short and rising fuel prices will accelerate the time line to successfully implement the "Transformation Plan", which I have been told must be complete before US Airways will participate in meaningful M&A actvity.

Separately, I have heard a US Airways - America West corporate combination is being discussed and as previously reported US Airways may elect to dump United.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot
 
I am sure that the US Airways BOD is actively discussing among themselves who they can sell the airline to. I am sure the conversation goes something like this:

"Oh Crap... UAL has extended its BK again"

"What are we gunna do?"

"Well we could try to sell to someone else..."

"Like who?"

"Southwest... nah, they'd never take us..."

"American... they bought TWA"

"Northwest... we both have A319/320/330s!"

"America West... they were profitable and have some cash"

"Branson... maybe we can be Virgin USA?"

"Frontier... they probably don't have enough cash/resources to guy us..."

etc.

Suggesting that there are active conversations going on with other airlines all the time is a bit presumptuous. I am sure the other airline CEO's have better things to do with their time than constantly discuss merger scenarios with Lakefield, Seigel, and/or Bronner. Those other CEO's probably actually have to try and run their companies. Furthermore, its not like those other CEO's don't see the big "For Sale" sign on the front door at CCY.
 
From the end game, the same USA Today Story as in this post, I went to the post copied, it would not copy his hyperlink so I posted the link, the posting # is at the bottom go check it our for yourself.

The End Game
USA320Pilot Posted on: May 14 2004, 10:50 AM

Replies: 11
Views: 855 Nobody who reads this forum should be surprised by this article.

Complete Story
(http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2004-05-13-airlines-federal-intervention_x.htm)

Regards,

USA320Pilot
Forum: US Airways · Post Preview: #141223
 
UnitedChicago

Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!!

When I saw your post I fell off my chair with laughter. The only thing that has made any sense on this board for a long, long time. :up: :up: :up: :up:
 
While I would never say never in this business, I'd have to say that a US/HP merger would be a highly unlikely scenario. Among other things, combining US' costs with HP's revenue stream would be a recipe for disaster.
 
"Its unclear how this could evolve, but according to industry observers US Airways’ second quarter financial statement indicates there is more to the story."


What industry observer? What second quarter statement? If your speaking of the SEC statements, they have to say that to cover their bases.

Give it up already Chip. Nobody has any extra cash sitting around and saying Ooooh lets go buy U and cause havoc and grief for everybody. :down:
 
Did I say the entire thread? I was referng to posting links and comments from the same article on multiple threads, go check your own post I provided.