M&A Talks And Rumors Start Their Rounds

swamt

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Oct 23, 2010
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Here comes all the M&A discussions. Pretty sure some airlines will have to do something to survive, but not sure if they would approve one of the big 4. I could actually see Alaska, Jetblue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant and even some other smaller airlines merging together some time in 2021/2022 especially if we don't have a favorable recovery in the airline industry...



https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...vive-covid-19-pandemic-analyst-205740633.html
 
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swamt

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I really don't see one of the big 4 unless they are willing to give up some big items in order to get approved. Smaller airlines would have a much easier approval process.
 
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swamt

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Alaska and Jet Blue are 'very close buddy's' with AA, than with UA, WN or DEL-DUH !
Interesting.
I too could see JetBlue doing a merger this time around and very quickly this time so not to get left out like they did last time.
I also see Frontier doing something also. Remember when SWA was weighing purchasing Frontier? Maybe they will look at them again? Or could we possibly see a three-way coming??? Maybe a couple of three-ways??? Anything is possible. But I would think the 3 strongest balance sheets would be SWA, Delta and Alaska. Not sure if SWA would even entertain the JB scenario as they have all A/B fleet. Not 100% sure of the others fleets. Makes for entertaining discussions.
 
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swamt

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I believe the top 3 are not merging but i would not rule out SWA and other smaller ones. Only time will tell

I would think SWA might sit back and wait and see who might do what. Then maybe get involved on sucking up some divested slots, routes and cities that way, but who really knows at this early time frame...
 

Allegheny

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Nov 9, 2016
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To save his skin, Doug Parker at AA may surprise everyone and blow the dust of an old game plan. In 1990 US Air accepted a large investment from British Airways and proposed a merger. BA was to have a 49% share and so not run afoul of US law. The deal broke down and BA partnered with AA but no cash or direct code-share.

With Brexit, Britain is free to conduct it's own aviation rules. Things are not good at British Airways but a proposed merger could pull cash off the sidelines. Neither US Airways or American West had any money to put into their merger but Doug Parker was able to sell the plan Wall Street and investment bankers and get the job done.

Hey it could happen, but what do I know??
 

jimntx

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Interesting.
I too could see JetBlue doing a merger this time around and very quickly this time so not to get left out like they did last time.
I also see Frontier doing something also. Remember when SWA was weighing purchasing Frontier? Maybe they will look at them again? Or could we possibly see a three-way coming??? Maybe a couple of three-ways??? Anything is possible. But I would think the 3 strongest balance sheets would be SWA, Delta and Alaska. Not sure if SWA would even entertain the JB scenario as they have all A/B fleet. Not 100% sure of the others fleets. Makes for entertaining discussions.
Think about how many jobs would be lost if Frontier and SWA got hitched up. I don't think any airline wants to make a move (nor would it be desired by the politicians) that would require massive number posted on Page 1 of employees losing their jobs. If SWA had moved a year ago (thereby eliminating most if not all Frontier expansion in Denver, then merger maybe. (Yes, I know that the expansion of Denver new routes would still happen, but they would be SWA routes) a whole different thing entirely.;)
 
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swamt

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I think we will see some chapter 11's soon, these loses are too big to ignore.
I would agree normally, but, wouldn't a new airline PSP package stretch all the BK's out until at least Sep 2021? Below is an article where I read they are finally including the airlines within the new transportation package of 50 Billion with 14 of it going towards the airlines yet again. This is good news, YES, but still might only be temporary for some.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/exclusive-congressional-democrats-set-back-174729966.html
 
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swamt

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Think about how many jobs would be lost if Frontier and SWA got hitched up. I don't think any airline wants to make a move (nor would it be desired by the politicians) that would require massive number posted on Page 1 of employees losing their jobs. If SWA had moved a year ago (thereby eliminating most if not all Frontier expansion in Denver, then merger maybe. (Yes, I know that the expansion of Denver new routes would still happen, but they would be SWA routes) a whole different thing entirely.;)

I wouldn't be so sure of that jim. SWA would rather keep all the employees like they did in the AirTran purchase. Dever would be the largest gain from Frontier with routes, gates and hangars that we need even though we are currently building new hangars now in Denver.
I would prefer to see SWA do a hat trick, picking up Frontier & Either Spirit or JetBlue, but would prefer Spirit do to fleets.