Hi Mancity,
First, let me say that I have the utmost respect for you and consider you to be one of the most high quality posters here. I think your perspective is invaluable. I hope sometime I can meet you because I already like you!
Now I would have to concur with your opinion about trusting anything the press says. However, I have also been following the situation at U, where I didn't buy all the threats of Ch 11. After all, they had over $600 million in cash, etc. But sure as he11, as soon as it became obvious they weren't going to get the union concessions they needed from two of the groups, they immediately filed as they had threatened to do.
My unfortunate conclusion has been that BK is inevitable for UAL. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It will enable them to lower their costs, since increasing revenue seems impossible for every carrier, and be more competitive. I think this may ultimately trigger a Ch 11 by AA, simply to remain competitive with their biggest rival, which would now enjoy a significant cost advantage.
The same kind of warning signals we are seeing coming from UAL were coming from U. When the clock they had set was up, they made good on their declaration and filed Ch 11. I have no reason to think UAL would behave any differently.
I'm sure not some "industry analyst" or pundit with superior knowledge. I'm just going on what I have observed and what my instincts tell me. I truly hope I am wrong and United can right its ship without depending on bankruptcy.
But I have just witnessed this exact same scenario unfold at U, not two weeks ago. I would like to think I'm a quick study, and my hope against hope is that the intransigent work groups at UAL {certainly not ALPA but some of the others) are quick studies as well. Somehow, I doubt it.
In any event, time will soon tell us the answer and however things turn out, I wish nothing but the best for you and for my long time friend UAL777Flyer, who like yourself, has United blood flowing through his veins.
In the meantime, I started this thread simply to provide information. The coverage of United here in the SFO area is intense as I'm sure it is in ORD, simply because they have such a major presence here and employ so many people. But ultimately, what they're printing here when it has a local by-line and not an AP or Reuters by-line, tells me it's what UAL fed to them and it was fed for a reason. United is sending a warning not only to its workgroups, but to the markets and the government as well. The message is not their imminent collapse, it's the lengths they will go to in order to get back on track and save the company.
If people like you and John were calling the shots perhaps none of this would be necessary.
Best of luck to you.
Your friend,
Marky