Our world in 2.5 years:
The AMR "merger" has taken place, and we are operating as three distinct pilot groups. East, PHX, and APA. A representational election has indeed finally been called, but the forgone conclusion is APA will be the surviving union.
Since no union transition was negotiated with the APA guys (things turned really ugly when they realized we had no seat at the table/read no MOU) the entire USAPA structure is starting to crumble. Committee members are worried about their last union paycheck will bounce, so they are simply going back to the line. In fact, the "plan" is for everyone to simply walk away when the election is lost. Your aircraft APA!
The investment bankers we hired initially seemed to do a good job, but the brutal realities of us not being included in anything merger has limited their abilities to help us at all. We spent over 2M up front, and they are now suing us claiming we hired them knowing full well we had now chance of success with no MOU.
We can no longer afford a full legal team, union funds have dropped below the 2M mark. We have to direct all our funds to the M/B process.
M/B has turned out to be a nightmare. Untested and challenged on every turn by Leonidas, the timeline has fallen apart due to legal filings in numerous venues. Even the Company has litigation pending. The Company and APA (both with seats at the M/B table) are working against us. The Company and APA are proposing a "paycheck" based integration, with parts of Nic and 4:1 narrowbody ratios favoring APA. The Company, APA, and the world's largest airline are against us, while offering us large pay raises. The arbitrator shakes his head and will soon rule against our interests.
Both the East and West are enjoying the protections granted under LOA's 93 and 95. Min fleets remain the same, but East widebodies are being replaced with narrowbodies, and international flying is all going to APA. East pilots in group II remain at $124/hr, having lost individually almost 200K in the last three years had they taken the MOU. Health care costs are now over 2K/month per family. A turkey and Swiss in the airport is now $15.
Dave Ciabattoni and the Grievance team (using a local CLT lawyer; we are out of moneys) continue to grieve the Change of Control language. The code share case has already been decided against us by the arbitrator. Dave and our team are going to executive session in challenge of "errors, inconsistencies, and an apparent misunderstanding of the question raised."
There is some growth above min fleet on the East, and even in PHX, as small narrowbodies continue to pour into the bases. Attrition is now only getting above 200/year, but as before, not a single pilot is leaving early, unless on a gurney. Growth at AMR (read APA) is small but steady. Their International flying is growing as they take new widebodies and ours are parked or sold. They are hiring about one NEW pilot day, as M/B drags on. The mediator tells us that the growth at APA, and our low pay will work against us in arbitration. We walk out on him in the last session, and the CLT reps hold a rally in the CLT food court.
Greeter