Oil Rising Rapidly

[autofixer]

It is scary and interesting that oil is sailing through $80 (overnight) per barrel and no-one seems to care or notice. Is it because Bush and Cheney, the "oil guys", are not around anymore to blame? The fact is oil is screaming up because we are devalueing our currency, and oil is traded in dollars (The dollar just hit a record low against the euro $1.50 to the euro.). We got a years respet as we went through the current economic turmoil, but now we are paying the piper--probably for good. The fundementals that existed a year ago, that drove oil to $147, are still in place and no it was not fault of futures traders then or is it this time. US based companies only control something like 8% of the World's oil supply, so when the government starts telling you how they are going to protect you from "big oil", know they are lying to you again. We are under the discretion of a lot of bad people controling most of the World's oil supply. It is going to be scary and interesting to see how the airlines and LCC in particular deal with this new paradime of high oil and since we, as a nation have decided to go socialist, European style permanent high unemployment.

 

[freedom]

As the resident economist ,my advice to you is to relax. Oil at less than 75$ a barrel is not healthy or sustianable for oil producers or refiners. While we would all like 1 dollars gas those days are over. Cause for concern would be at 95$ a barrel

 

[ontimetada]

It is scary and interesting that oil is sailing through $80 (overnight) per barrel and no-one seems to care or notice. Is it because Bush and Cheney, the "oil guys", are not around anymore to blame? The fact is oil is screaming up because we are devalueing our currency, and oil is traded in dollars (The dollar just hit a record low against the euro $1.50 to the euro.). We got a years respet as we went through the current economic turmoil, but now we are paying the piper--probably for good. The fundementals that existed a year ago, that drove oil to $147, are still in place and no it was not fault of futures traders then or is it this time. US based companies only control something like 8% of the World's oil supply, so when the government starts telling you how they are going to protect you from "big oil", know they are lying to you again. We are under the discretion of a lot of bad people controling most of the World's oil supply. It is going to be scary and interesting to see how the airlines and LCC in particular deal with this new paradime of high oil and since we, as a nation have decided to go socialist, European style permanent high unemployment.

This concerns me ($80 per barrel) since USAirways did not hedge fuel. I am worried unemployment may be near for me,
20/hr to say next (if I feel like it or I am not reading a magazine or book) has been to good for to long.
USAirway's end may be soon. We sold assets,3100 flights with 32000 employees,no cash this is an ugly picture.

 

[Garfield1966]

Perhaps it's time we start using fuel more wisely and actually put some serious thought/money/R&D into alternative fuels. We can probably start by over coming this obsession with SUV/trucks. I would be willing to bet that a over whelming majority of people who have the do not use them for their intended purpose more than 10% of the time if that.

 

[AirbusAVE]

We can probably start by over coming this obsession with SUV/trucks.

And lets stop flying 767's and start using CRJ200's. PHL - MAD on a CRJ900 anyone?





I'm sure people with SUV's and trucks have SUV's and trucks for a reason. Just as airlines using 747's as opposed to 737's. It depends on the needs of said situation.

 

[Garfield1966]

Right. Every truck and SUV I see is always packed to the brim with people or materials.

Your airline example falls flat on it's face. An Airline is not going to fly a 747 between LAX and SAN because the market does not justify it. Airlines will fly a plane they think they can fill on a fairly regular basis.

I huge number of people buy trucks because they like the size and the status of it. For many/most it has little to do with the utility factor.

 

[Freedom4all]

Right. Every truck and SUV I see is always packed to the brim with people or materials.

Your airline example falls flat on it's face. An Airline is not going to fly a 747 between LAX and SAN because the market does not justify it. Airlines will fly a plane they think they can fill on a fairly regular basis.

I huge number of people buy trucks because they like the size and the status of it. For many/most it has little to do with the utility factor.

Yes. Its called freedom of choice and market forces.

 

[Freedom4all]

As the resident economist ,my advice to you is to relax. Oil at less than 75$ a barrel is not healthy or sustianable for oil producers or refiners. While we would all like 1 dollars gas those days are over. Cause for concern would be at 95$ a barrel

Please explain what qualifies as a resident economist? Someone who advocates to stop paying their bills, skirting their responsibilities onto the taxpayers via gov bail outs? Sounds more like a resident deadbeat/mooch, etc.

 

[delldude]

That's because Obama is inflating the dollar and it takes more of them to buy a barrel.
'Yall ain't seed nothing yet...... :huh:

Right. Every truck and SUV I see is always packed to the brim with people or materials.

 

[delldude]

As the resident economist ,my advice to you is to relax. Oil at less than 75$ a barrel is not healthy or sustianable for oil producers or refiners. While we would all like 1 dollars gas those days are over. Cause for concern would be at 95$ a barrel

Comment......

 

[freedom]

Please explain what qualifies as a resident economist? Someone who advocates to stop paying their bills, skirting their responsibilities onto the taxpayers via gov bail outs? Sounds more like a resident deadbeat/mooch, etc.

because i know more about the U.S economy than anyone on this message board or at my company US Airways ...

Remeber when i started talking to you about inflation and deflation and you called it "crazy talk " .... those are economic terms

i'm an economist because i LOVE economics and it comes naturally to me ... i love it the way many of you might love sports ..

and i tell you , this is the most exciting time in our nations history !

 

[delldude]

because i know more about the U.S economy than anyone on this message board or at my company US Airways ...

Remeber when i started talking to you about inflation and deflation and you called it "crazy talk " .... those are economic terms

i'm an economist because i LOVE economics and it comes naturally to me ... i love it the way many of you might love sports ..

and i tell you , this is the most exciting time in our nations history !

I agree....

Economics degree....

 

[Gilding the Lily]

because i know more about the U.S economy than anyone on this message board or at my company US Airways ...

I have previously pointed out numerous of your economic predictions that have been flat out wrong. Nearly every prediction you made with a known timeline has not come to fruition. Most your other economic predictions that have not occured have unlimited time horizons... leading you to state something to the effect of, "give it more time."

Also, there is an old saying: "If you have to say you are good at something, you probably aren't."

 

[freedom]

I have previously pointed out numerous of your economic predictions that have been flat out wrong. Nearly every prediction you made with a known timeline has not come to fruition. Most your other economic predictions that have not occured have unlimited time horizons... leading you to state something to the effect of, "give it more time."

Also, there is an old saying: "If you have to say you are good at something, you probably aren't."

Here is a link to the thread that started it all

http://www.usaviation.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=42382


I still stand behind my 3-5 year timeline …

As we all know looking back from this point in time , the price of oil and our total debt have played a serious component in our economies collapse .

You stated lilly that I was over exaggerating the issue and that at best we would suffer from stagflation , but tell me if the bank stress tests assumed a worst case unemployment rate of 10.3 % what ever is going to happen when we blow past that , as we most surely shall ? Furthermore I think housing prices have fallen further than the ten percent you had talked about at the time and while I don’t have the numbers current , I think we can also assume that now that the government has withdrawn the 8,000 first time home buyers credit we will see further declines .


If you read down the thread you will note that I did not say that any of this was going to happen overnight , I also mentioned that freddy and fannie mac were in trouble , and low and behold they are STILL in trouble to this day … ( they would be bankrupt if not for government intervention )

One prediction I did make where I was wrong was that I called for a huge market plunge on a certain date , that was incorrect , we had the plunge about 2 months later after lehman brothers collapsed .. I was however correct in the general direction of where the market would go ..


The doom journal ended with me worrying about the effects that swine flu could have on the economy , I didn’t predict what would happen but merely worried what would happen if it DID kick in …

Most of my doom journal tended to be reporting the events as they happened and then gloating lol …

As for today’s climate , I would say that most of our nations largest banks are technically insolvent under the old mark to market accounting rules , but because we changed those rules to hide that fact , the banks are not insolvent .

Unemployment continues albeit at a slower pace , and the government has backstopped just about everything , not to mention access to credit continues to contract .


When you combine private and public debt , the ration to GDP of debt is 375 % … that’s a freaking mountain of debt … and we continue to take on more just to keep our system going … (any declines in debt are nine times out of ten the result of default )

Without the cash for clunkers program the auto industry would still be reeling …

Only massive government intervention has staved off collapse , and even that cannot hold back what’s coming for much longer …

Does anyone care to disagree with this assessment ?

 

[ChockJockey]

because i know more about the U.S economy than anyone on this message board or at my company US Airways ...

Reading the Financial Times while sitting on a bag tug does not an economist make. That's just my inflation-adjusted two cents. Funny thing that newspaper, what printed on rose-tint paper...