Petroleum Report for Week Ending 11/11/05

BoeingBoy

Veteran
Nov 9, 2003
16,512
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It's another Wednesday and the weekly EIA report is out.....

I haven't said anything about crude oil supplies or imports in a while for two reasons. 1 - the info is pretty widely available, and 2 - the problem since Katrina/Rita has been mostly refining capacity and not crude supply. However, enough refining capacity is back on-line that jet fuel prices have pretty much returned to the historic pattern of moving with crude prices, so here's what the EIA had to say about both crude imports and supplies in today's report:

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down
884,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.1 million barrels per day, a decline
of 243,000 barrels per day from the comparable four weeks last year.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the SPR) fell by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. However, at 321.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Now for the normal (lately) refinery and product use data:

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.5 million barrels per day
during the week ending November 11, up 221,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 86.2 percent of their operable capacity last week (capacity temporarily lost is not subtracted from operable capacity). Gasoline production increased significantly, averaging nearly 8.8 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production rose slightly, averaging 3.8 million barrels per day.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.5
million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, or 0.3 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 0.8 percent above the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 4.2 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Now for the normal spot price data:

Spot prices for jet fuel..11/11....11/04....10/28....10/21....10/14....10/07......9/30.....9/23......9/16.....9/09......9/02......8/26
New York Harbor.......$1.7400 $1.8135 $2.0050 $2.0275 $2.1150 $2.3050 $2.4200 $2.0700 $1.9450 $2.0100 $2.2750 $1.9100
Gulf Coast...............$1.6900 $1.7655 $1.9640 $1.9325 $2.3050 $2.8400 $2.6450 $2.1750 $1.9050 $1.9488 $2.2050 $1.8675
Los Angeles.............$1.7550 $1.8300 $1.9150 $1.8850 $2.0350 $2.0850 $2.3050 $2.0000 $1.8850 $1.9500 $2.2538 $2.0000

Spot prices for crude....11/11..11/04...10/28..10/21..10/14...10/07....9/30....9/23....9/16....9/09....9/02....8/26
WTI Cushing..............$57.45 $60.60 $61.30 $61.05 $62.61 $61.81 $66.21 $64.67 $62.91 $64.21 $66.91 $66.71
Brent.......................$54.30 $60.48 $59.47 $56.94 $58.45 $57.29 $61.70 $62.17 $60.48 $62.62 $65.95 $67.26

Current crude prices:

CNBC reports $57.65 @ 1105 on 11/16/05

Finally, average spot prices of jet fuel (per gallon) by month (by quarter once the quarter is over). I've added a couple of lines here - the average price East and West paid for jet fuel in the quarters as reported in quarterly reports. A note for the West figure - it does not include hedging benefits, which lowered West's fuel cost per gallon significantly.

Delivery point.....1Q05.....2Q05.....3Q05....Oct05...Nov05*
NY Harbor......$1.4861 $1.5833 $1.9253 $2.1438 $1.8095
Gulf Coast.....$1.4400 $1.5649 $1.9263 $2.3981 $1.7465
Los Angeles...$1.5228 $1.7008 $1.9585 $2.0166 $1.7969
East Paid......$1.4720 $1.6800 $1.8800
West Paid.....$1.4170 $1.6690 $1.9200
*thru 11/15/05

Another note: with the current quarter half over, the average for this quarter so far is $2.0289, 2.1741, & $1.9411 respectfully. If spot prices remain at current levels, the 4Q05 fuel price will be about the same as 3Q05. Of course, prices could continue down or go up.

Jim

[edit: well shucks, the new board format messed up the columns of the price data. It looked fine in the preview (after a few adjustments) but is off in the post. I'll work on it some more. Jim]
 
Since the chart I've added for a couple of months has served it's purpose (showing hurricane related fuel price fluctuations), here's a new one. This is the average monthly spot price (per gallon this time) of WTI crude vs jet fuel for 2004 & 2005.

View attachment 3668

Jim