- Nov 9, 2003
- 16,512
- 5,865
From the EIA weekly report:
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.9 million barrels per day last week, up 264,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 9.6 million barrels per day, a decrease of 156,000 barrels per day from the comparable four weeks last year.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the SPR) inched lower by 0.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 320.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending February 3, down 203,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average, as, apparently, some refineries continue to undergo maintenance. Refineries operated at 85.8 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.2 million barrels per day, or 1.8 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has veraged nearly 8.9 million barrels per day, or 1.2 percent above the same period last year.
Jet fuel demand is up 3.4 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Jet fuel spot prices continued their decline as crude prices declined. On Friday, 2/3/06, jet fuel and crude spot prices were:
NY Harbor - $1.8225/gal
Gulf Coast - $1.7900/gal
Los Angeles - $1.9075/gal
WTI Cushing - $65.41/bbl
For reference, the recent spot price highs were:
NY Harbor - $1.9600/gal (1/20/06)
Gulf Coast - $1.9400/gal (1/20/06)
Los Angeles - $2.0700/gal (1/23/06)
WTI Cushing - $68.16/bbl (1/20/06) & $68.36/bbl (1/30/06)
Today, WTI Cushing closed at $67.76/bbl according to Bloomberg.
I won't update the usual chart of average monthly spot prices until I have a Feb average in early March, but I'll move the chart from last week's update to this one for your convenience.
View attachment 4314
The EIA also released an updated 'Short Term Energy Outlook' this week. Excerpts:
"In the United States, January was 27 percent warmer than normal, pushing prices for natural gas lower than predicted in the previous Outlook. But cold weather in parts of Asia and Europe combined with uncertainties regarding oil supplies from Nigeria, Iran and Iraq help keep crude oil prices high. Prices for crude oil and petroleum products are projected to remain high through 2006 before starting to weaken in 2007. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which averaged $56 per barrel in 2005, is projected to average $65 per barrel in 2006 and $61 in 2007."
"Many of the same factors that drove world oil markets in 2005, such as low world spare oil production capacity and rapid world oil demand growth, will continue to affect markets in 2006 and 2007. Other factors are less certain, such as the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, other extreme weather, and geopolitical instability."
"World spare oil production capacity is projected to increase modestly during 2006 and 2007 despite new supplies from both non-OPEC and OPEC countries. The primary reason is that many mature fields, such as those in the North Sea, Mexico, and the Middle East, are showing declines. Non-OPEC supply, which grew by an annual average of 800,000 bbl/d between 1995-2005, is projected to grow by 800,000 bbl/d in 2006 and by 1.6 million bbl/d in 2007."
"Outside of the United States, net production increases in 2006 of 100,000-200,000 bbl/d are expected in the Caspian, Canada, Angola, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico areas. Large new projects in 2007 are projected to lead to increases of almost 500,000 bbl/d in Angola, almost 400,000 bbl/d in the Caspian, over 200,000 bbl/d in Brazil, and over 200,000 bbl/d in Canada."
"World oil demand growth is expected to increase from 1.2 million bbl/d in 2005 to 1.6 million bbl/d in 2006, largely because U.S. demand is projected to recover from a net decline in 2005 to show growth of 350,000 bbl/d in 2006. OECD demand growth outside of the United States is expected to remain low. World demand growth is projected to increase further to 1.9 million bbl/d in 2007 because of economic growth in developing Asian countries (excluding China). Chinese demand growth is projected to stay on its overall annual trend of about 500,000 bbl/d per year."
Jim
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.9 million barrels per day last week, up 264,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 9.6 million barrels per day, a decrease of 156,000 barrels per day from the comparable four weeks last year.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the SPR) inched lower by 0.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 320.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending February 3, down 203,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average, as, apparently, some refineries continue to undergo maintenance. Refineries operated at 85.8 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.2 million barrels per day, or 1.8 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has veraged nearly 8.9 million barrels per day, or 1.2 percent above the same period last year.
Jet fuel demand is up 3.4 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Jet fuel spot prices continued their decline as crude prices declined. On Friday, 2/3/06, jet fuel and crude spot prices were:
NY Harbor - $1.8225/gal
Gulf Coast - $1.7900/gal
Los Angeles - $1.9075/gal
WTI Cushing - $65.41/bbl
For reference, the recent spot price highs were:
NY Harbor - $1.9600/gal (1/20/06)
Gulf Coast - $1.9400/gal (1/20/06)
Los Angeles - $2.0700/gal (1/23/06)
WTI Cushing - $68.16/bbl (1/20/06) & $68.36/bbl (1/30/06)
Today, WTI Cushing closed at $67.76/bbl according to Bloomberg.
I won't update the usual chart of average monthly spot prices until I have a Feb average in early March, but I'll move the chart from last week's update to this one for your convenience.
View attachment 4314
The EIA also released an updated 'Short Term Energy Outlook' this week. Excerpts:
"In the United States, January was 27 percent warmer than normal, pushing prices for natural gas lower than predicted in the previous Outlook. But cold weather in parts of Asia and Europe combined with uncertainties regarding oil supplies from Nigeria, Iran and Iraq help keep crude oil prices high. Prices for crude oil and petroleum products are projected to remain high through 2006 before starting to weaken in 2007. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which averaged $56 per barrel in 2005, is projected to average $65 per barrel in 2006 and $61 in 2007."
"Many of the same factors that drove world oil markets in 2005, such as low world spare oil production capacity and rapid world oil demand growth, will continue to affect markets in 2006 and 2007. Other factors are less certain, such as the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, other extreme weather, and geopolitical instability."
"World spare oil production capacity is projected to increase modestly during 2006 and 2007 despite new supplies from both non-OPEC and OPEC countries. The primary reason is that many mature fields, such as those in the North Sea, Mexico, and the Middle East, are showing declines. Non-OPEC supply, which grew by an annual average of 800,000 bbl/d between 1995-2005, is projected to grow by 800,000 bbl/d in 2006 and by 1.6 million bbl/d in 2007."
"Outside of the United States, net production increases in 2006 of 100,000-200,000 bbl/d are expected in the Caspian, Canada, Angola, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico areas. Large new projects in 2007 are projected to lead to increases of almost 500,000 bbl/d in Angola, almost 400,000 bbl/d in the Caspian, over 200,000 bbl/d in Brazil, and over 200,000 bbl/d in Canada."
"World oil demand growth is expected to increase from 1.2 million bbl/d in 2005 to 1.6 million bbl/d in 2006, largely because U.S. demand is projected to recover from a net decline in 2005 to show growth of 350,000 bbl/d in 2006. OECD demand growth outside of the United States is expected to remain low. World demand growth is projected to increase further to 1.9 million bbl/d in 2007 because of economic growth in developing Asian countries (excluding China). Chinese demand growth is projected to stay on its overall annual trend of about 500,000 bbl/d per year."
Jim
