Pilot cutbacks

Sep 5, 2002
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UA announced additional pilot furloughs. Read below;[BR][BR][A href=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html]http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html[/A][BR][BR]How deep will/can these cuts eventually go? A couple of friends of mine were hired by United sometime in 97. I've lost touch with them and I'm hoping they'll be okay. I’ve heard that US cut pilots hired back in 88. [BR][BR]F_Flyer
 

767jetz

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
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Your friends hired in '97 will be fine, assuming CH7 doesn't happen. The cuts that will happen due to ERP II will go back to approximately late 1999.
 
OP
F
Sep 5, 2002
12
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[blockquote]
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On 12/3/2002 11:44:39 PM 767jetz wrote:

Your friends hired in '97 will be fine, assuming CH7 doesn't happen. The cuts that will happen due to ERP II will go back to approximately late 1999.
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Given the CH11 filing today, how deep can the pilot cuts go now? I'm sure that the 300+ pilots that will be furloughed in the next two months are only the begining.

Good luck to all

 

The Ronin

Senior
Sep 17, 2002
497
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[blockquote]
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On 12/3/2002 11:44:39 PM 767jetz wrote:

Your friends hired in '97 will be fine, assuming CH7 doesn't happen. The cuts that will happen due to ERP II will go back to approximately late 1999.
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All bets are off now, no way this airine is going to staff 8200 pilots or 10,000 mechanics....
 

The Ronin

Senior
Sep 17, 2002
497
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[blockquote]
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On 12/9/2002 2:54:47 PM autofixer wrote:

frequent flyer, You are correct concerning the U pilots. In a few months we will have 1/3 of the pre-911 pilot force on the street. They are hire dates of 1988 and maybe late 1987. Just some info for the UAL people to ponder. 33% gone!
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Your thoughts are in the right place, but reality is another matter. At least 30% of the people currently working for UAL will be gone within a year. Those that stay will take cuts that will place them on the bottom of bottoms. Just old pilots, old flight attendants/rampers, old mechanics at a old dying airline. And we're gonna soar into battle...hahahahah, well lets hope so good buddy.

I posted this days ago, got jumped pretty hard too...but this is reality...numbers that is
 

autofixer

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Aug 20, 2002
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frequent flyer, You are correct concerning the U pilots. In a few months we will have 1/3 of the pre-911 pilot force on the street. They are hire dates of 1988 and maybe late 1987. Just some info for the UAL people to ponder. 33% gone!
 

autofixer

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
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www.usaviation.com
Speaking of old pilots, U has 3 pilots under 40. 48% of the pilot force is over 50. Now we are looking at the termination of our retirement and more cuts. I am personally a narrow body reserve F/O with 15.5 years "seniority." I was a reserve Capt. two years ago. The cuts can come deep and they can come fast. I hope it dosen't hit UAL like it did U.
 

767jetz

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
3,286
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The one thing in UA's favor is the large amount of retirements and hiring done in the late 90's. I don't have the exact numbers, but they'd have to cut between 1500-2000 pilots just to get into late 1997 hires. I don't really know were this is going to go, but even if you need to cut 1/3 of the pre 9/11 pilots, factoring in the retirements and early outs that have already happened and will continue, as well as the furloughs already done, and your looking at something less than that.

ALPA agreed to 600 more in ERP II. I'm thinking no more than double that. Anyone else care to venture a guess?
 

ONTHESTREET

Advanced
Aug 20, 2002
198
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[blockquote]
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On 12/9/2002 10:19:16 PM 767jetz wrote:

Anyone else care to venture a guess?
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I would venture to guess UA will end up with about 5000 to 6000 pilots when they are done. U dumped 1800 and still not done. UA appears to be on an identical path, all I have seen is a carbon copy of U's "business plan" Plan on retirements not being replaced by call backs. If you factor in the retirements at U the true # of pilots cutbacks is somewhere in the neighborhood of 2300. U only had 6000 to start with! The numbers that I saw project 3800 pilots for U when its done.

UA is a different carrier I know, but so far I see no reason to think that it is headed down a different road from U. CEO has already announced his "Big A/C Christmas Sale" It will start small and quickly become a nightmare. Once it started at U it came fast and furious.

I hope I am wrong for UA's sake but I do not think I am.
 

767jetz

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
3,286
2,779
I think 5000 to 6000 is a bit drastic. That would be close to half the pre 9/11 number. We have many pilots on various long term leave such as medical. They can come back for up to 7 years, so they still have a seniority #. Take those out and the "active" number is somewhere in the range of 8600. I just don't see losing 2600 to 3600 more. 7000 to 7500 active pilots would b more realistic. But who really knows???
 

autofixer

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
1,804
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www.usaviation.com
ONTHESTREET is right! Get ready! The U chopping block is "labor friendly", I can't imagine what U'AL are in for. Good luck. Expect and prepare for the worst. Don't fear the judge, fear the DIP financers...they really pull the strings in BK. We don't wish ill on anyone, we just are trying to pass along some hard earned wisdom.
 

ONTHESTREET

Advanced
Aug 20, 2002
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U is just about to half pre 9-11 strength now. BK is very ugly. Latest rumor is 2300 pilots and 160 A/C now. (If we survive)

I heard all the bad stories from the old days about Bk and did not believe them......Well I can tell you it is every bit as bad as the old EA,Braniff, and Pan Am guys said.

So far you guys have taken 400 mil in consessions with about 8900 pilots. U has taken about 460 mil in consessions with 4000 pilots.....and they are back for more as we speak. I think UA is in for a real shock....I know we got one!
 

iflyjetz

Senior
Oct 2, 2002
422
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[blockquote]
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On 12/3/2002 7:27:46 PM frequent_flyer wrote:

UA announced additional pilot furloughs. Read below;

[A href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html"]http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html[/A]

How deep will/can these cuts eventually go? A couple of friends of mine were hired by United sometime in 97. I've lost touch with them and I'm hoping they'll be okay. I’ve heard that US cut pilots hired back in 88.

F_Flyer
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Frequent flyer, that article is, believe it or not, a bit dated. Since announcing chap 11, UAL is now furloughing 220 pilots on Jan 15, and 180 more (increase from 132) at the beginning of Feb. I think that'll get just about everyone hired in 2000; I haven't checked the seniority list yet.
I anticipate that there'll be another 1000 furloughs on top of that; that should go into 1998 hires. With an additional 1000 furloughs above the current number on furlough and announced furloughs, that'd make 2244 furloughs (844 + 400 + 1000).
One area where United's pilots have an advantage over USAirways pilots is that there is an average of one retirement per day at United; significantly more than at USAirways.
How deep the furloughs go will depend on negotiated work rules and future bookings. If the pilot work rules change drastically, there could be quite a few more furloughs. If future bookings increase significantly for next summer, there could be quite a few less furloughs. At this point, I'm not a betting man. It could go either way.
Some more factors to take into consideration is how much of a cash burn rate can be sustained by other carriers. AMR is rumored to be burning through a ton of cash; I don't think that they'll be able to sustain that much longer, and will be forced to curtail their schedule.
 
OP
F
Sep 5, 2002
12
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[blockquote]
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On 12/11/2002 3:13:24 AM iflyjetz wrote:

[blockquote]
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On 12/3/2002 7:27:46 PM frequent_flyer wrote:

UA announced additional pilot furloughs. Read below;

[A href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html"]http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021203/united_airlines_5.html[/A]

How deep will/can these cuts eventually go? A couple of friends of mine were hired by United sometime in 97. I've lost touch with them and I'm hoping they'll be okay. I’ve heard that US cut pilots hired back in 88.

F_Flyer
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[/blockquote]

Frequent flyer, that article is, believe it or not, a bit dated. Since announcing chap 11, UAL is now furloughing 220 pilots on Jan 15, and 180 more (increase from 132) at the beginning of Feb. I think that'll get just about everyone hired in 2000; I haven't checked the seniority list yet.
I anticipate that there'll be another 1000 furloughs on top of that; that should go into 1998 hires. With an additional 1000 furloughs above the current number on furlough and announced furloughs, that'd make 2244 furloughs (844 + 400 + 1000).
One area where United's pilots have an advantage over USAirways pilots is that there is an average of one retirement per day at United; significantly more than at USAirways.
How deep the furloughs go will depend on negotiated work rules and future bookings. If the pilot work rules change drastically, there could be quite a few more furloughs. If future bookings increase significantly for next summer, there could be quite a few less furloughs. At this point, I'm not a betting man. It could go either way.
Some more factors to take into consideration is how much of a cash burn rate can be sustained by other carriers. AMR is rumored to be burning through a ton of cash; I don't think that they'll be able to sustain that much longer, and will be forced to curtail their schedule.
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I'm hearing that 5000 to 5500 is about what will be left after cutbacks, assuming Ch7 doesnt happen (lots of talk about this as well). How far back does this go in terms of hire date?

Once again, good luck to all

FF
 

iflyjetz

Senior
Oct 2, 2002
422
0
[blockquote]
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On 12/12/2002 9:23:17 PM frequent_flyer wrote:

I'm hearing that 5000 to 5500 is about what will be left after cutbacks, assuming Ch7 doesnt happen (lots of talk about this as well). How far back does this go in terms of hire date?

Once again, good luck to all

FF
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Frequent_flyer, I don't think that ANYONE can predict with any certainty how deep the cuts will go. Or whether UAL declares chap 7.
My guess of an additional 1000 after the already announced cuts is just that, a guess.
But for the sake of indulging in a number crunching exercise, let's try to figure out how many furloughs it would take to get to 5000 - 5500.
Here are the following factors I'll use in the calcultions:
30 retirements per month (it's fairly close to that)
50 furloughs per month during the busy summer months.
100 pilots per month furloughs during slow months.
Pilots at UAL as of 1 Jan 2003 will be 8500.

Calculating the number of pilots at UAL at the end of Feb 2003: 8500 - 400 - 60 = 7940.
Subtract 130/month for Mar 2003 - May 2003; 7940 - 130(3) = 7550.
Subtract 80/month for Jun 2003 - Aug 2003; 7550 - 80(3) = 7310.
Subtract 130/month for Sep 2003 - May 2004; 7310 - 130(9) = 6140.
Subtract 80/month for Jun 2004 - Aug 2004; 6140 - 80(3) = 5900.
Subtract 130/month for Sep 2004 - Nov 2004; 5900 - 130(3) = 5510.

If this scenario takes place, that would be 3044 pilots on furlough. I stopped at ~5500, because the general rule of thumb is that you need to furlough a pilot for at least a year in order to recoup the costs of furloughing. At 30 pilot retirements/month, it would be an additional 17 months before the number of UAL pilots reached 5000 and recalls would begin.

In case you're wondering why they can't just furlough a ton of pilots at once, it's because there's a lot of retraining required when furloughs occur. The majority of furloughs will be first officers (copilots) on the 737. It will require time to downbid and retrain other pilots to take their place. The cycle continues with every new round of furloughs.

But here's the problem with all of this ... furloughs will run for the next 24 months. It's just too far in the future to be able to predict with any sense of accuracy.

But your question is how far back on hire date are we talking? Somewhere in the mid 90s.