Puppies Are Winning The Dogfight

[BoeingBoy]

OUR TAKE
Puppies Are Winning the Dogfight

By Rich Smith
July 15, 2004

Once upon a time, my family went through a "pet rollover." Many Foolish dog owners will be familiar with how this works: several dogs are in the family. One dog chases a fire truck too many and departs the pack. A lower-rung dog assumes top dog position, and a new puppy is brought in to assume the "bottom dog" slot.

Motley Fool Piece

Jim

 

[javaboy]

bear (pun) in mind columns on companies of this nature should ultimately reflect a buy, sell or hold position or at the minimum enough information such that you can make an investment decision.
from the article ..........

The question that investors in the old dog airlines must ask themselves is how long will it be until one, or more, of the puppies grows tall enough to reach the international "couch"? For I guarantee you, one day soon, air travelers will be presented with the choice of flying nonstop to London on a crowded old Delta plane -- or paying half price to take the same trip on extra-wide leather seats, watching live television on a personal video monitor on a brand-new JetBlue Airbus.

The king of the LCCs (puppies)(which this puppy is now has a market cap greater than UAL,AMR,DAL,UAIR,CAL,NWAC.>>>COMBINED ) has had 31 years to match the 204(Uair),500+(amr,ual,dal) 400 (cal,nwac) destinations served instead they use their 400 planes to serve just 60 cities. So sorry mr motley fool, you wont be seeing 29.00 fares 'across the pond' or to hawaii or to china or japan or australia or soviet union anytime soon. the lcc model works domesticly just fine and their collective business models wont be taking people to where the 'big dogs' go. if the big dogs shrink, or worse you simply will have fewer choices.

buy sell or hold? try reading the WSJ or IBD you will get much better information in which to base your investment decision on.

if i may indulge..... this is the current problem , what are you doung for Me this or next fiscal quarter ...unlike GE...this is our 10 year road map... a simple 1year cost saving plan with a 5year backdrop plan just might attract the badly needed capital. Uair could qite simply (with right mgmt team) steal 5% market share from ual,dal,amr in the coming 12months which would increase gross revenues to a point where no further cuts (personnel or wage) are required..(critical mass if you will....

RUN THE COMPANY MR LAKEFIELD meet with your customers not with your unions

 

[mweiss]

The king of the LCCs ... has had 31 years to match the [international] destinations served instead they use their 400 planes to serve just 60 cities.

Unlike AA, UA, DL, NW, and US, which have been around for closer to 80, first of all.

Secondly, since the early 90s, when they started a massive expansion, they have been growing as rapidly as they could; there wasn't much point in acquiring an airline like, say, HP, who looks dramatically different from WN. Therefore, WN wasn't going to grow quickly in the same way that US did.

My sense is that they'll be adding Canada before too long. Going TATL will take longer, because they'll have to add a new fleet type...who knows if they'll do it.

No, ATA has the equipment. If anyone's going to jump in there soon, it's ATA.

 

[TDR1502C]

Isn't route authority a factor in overseas flying? Or is the author just assuming Open Skies?

 

[mweiss]

Isn't route authority a factor in overseas flying?

Depends on the destination.

 

[usair_begins_with_u]

 

[ClueByFour]

My sense is that they'll be adding Canada before too long. Going TATL will take longer, because they'll have to add a new fleet type...who knows if they'll do it.

No, ATA has the equipment. If anyone's going to jump in there soon, it's ATA.

Catch-22: only to/from destinations with preclearance facilities, and only then if they can still turn an aircraft in a rather low time (I don't expect to see LUV in YYZ, for instance).

Now, they'd probably have to bring the fleet to EOW specs, but I'd imagine the boys and girls down at DAL have thought about the Caribbean once or twice--heck, I saw US turn a 319 in about 40 minutes at BGI.

 

[700UW]

CX4,

If and when WN goes to the carribean or mexico, when the planes come back they will have to clear customs and agriculture and then be security checked.

I doubt that will happen in 40 minutes or less.

 

[mweiss]

only to/from destinations with preclearance facilities

Naturally, but that'd open the largest Canadian markets up to them. I doubt they'd want to tackle the little ones up there anyway.

 

[ClueByFour]

Naturally, but that'd open the largest Canadian markets up to them. I doubt they'd want to tackle the little ones up there anyway.

I guess my point was that even some markets (large ones, at that) with said facilities are not particularly great for WN's model--Toronto coming to mind almost immediately.

Regarding the agro and security checks after returning from an international flight, if I'm WN, I run my returns into larger stations (BWI, RDU, MDW) as the last flight and then RON the aircraft, although that would screw the outbound up a bit. I'd imagine that LUV might even eat the extra 20 minutes on those turns to get at a market (save SJU) that is relatively LCC free (okay, and Airtran to the Bahamas).

 

[mweiss]

Toronto coming to mind almost immediately.

I haven't been to YYZ in eight years. What is it about Pearson that is so bad for WN?

 

[BoeingBoy]

I was wondering the same thing. I haven't been up there since 911, but back then it was better than CLT (and nothing like PHL).

Jim

 

[ClueByFour]

I haven't been to YYZ in eight years. What is it about Pearson that is so bad for WN?

I must hit it during whichever time either has every US carrier is arriving and/or when AC has a hub push. I've also spent some time waiting for a gate (well, with my outbound waiting for a gate) in the precleared terminal.

Regarding WN in PHL, that (after my last two trips thru PHL, both of which almost ended in misconnections to GLA and BGI respectively), I can only assume that they feel the market is underserved enough to throw resources at the problem, knowing that the operational disruptions will be made up by the revenue upside.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Clue,

I haven't been there (coming or going) during the AC rush, so that could definitely be a factor. And like I said, I haven't been there since 911, so there may have been changes. Given those caveats, I found it a pleasure to operate to/from the Canadian airports. They have some ATC (or whatever they call it north of the border) procedures that are better than here.

The only hassle was the flight from Ottawa without customs/immigration pre-clearance. That whole "get off the plane and go thru customs/immigration, only to get back on the plane could be a nightmare.

Jim

 

[autofixer]

Canadian ATC is privatized.