You are correct Eric.
ATC would stay on the job with deferred compensation. That does not mean the people who maintain the infrastructure the controllers use would stay. The clerks processing their time and pay would be furloughed. As would all the administrative support for them.
How many federal contractors would be effected? Maybe $25B in contracts stopped. All DOD contracts like ship and aircraft manufacturing stop. All of the support bsuinesses stop. The towns that survive solely because of those workers suffer. But hey, maybe they are "self sufficient" like you. Read below:
"Examples of Excepted Activities and Personnel
Previous determinations of excepted activities and personnel would not necessarily hold for any future shutdown. However, past experience may inform future OMB and agency decisions. An OMB memorandum of November 17, 1981, from Director David A. Stockman to the heads of executive agencies, identified “examples of excepted activities.”33 The memorandum, which still was in effect for the FY1996 shutdowns, explained
Beginning [on the first day of the appropriations hiatus], agencies may continue activities otherwise authorized by law, those that protect life and property and those necessary to begin phasedown of other activities. Primary examples of activities agencies may continue are those which may be found under applicable statutes to:
1. Provide for the national security, including the conduct of foreign relations essential to the national security or the safety of life and property.
2. Provide for benefit payments and the performance of contract obligations under no-year or multi-year or other funds remaining available for those purposes.
3. Conduct essential activities to the extent that they protect life and property, including: a. Medical care of inpatients and emergency outpatient care;
b. Activities essential to ensure continued public health and safety, including safe use of food and drugs and safe use of hazardous materials;
c. The continuance of air traffic control and other transportation safety functions and the protection of transport property;
d. Border and coastal protection and surveillance;
e. Protection of Federal lands, buildings, waterways, equipment and other property owned by the United States;
f. Care of prisoners and other persons in the custody of the United States; g. Law enforcement and criminal investigations;
h. Emergency and disaster assistance;
i. Activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury;
j. Activities that ensure production of power and maintenance of the power distribution system; and
k. Activities necessary to maintain protection of research property.
You should maintain the staff and support services necessary to continue these essential functions."
Effects on the Public
The effects of the two FY1996 shutdowns on government activities and the public received extensive attention. Although the effects on the public of any future shutdown would not necessarily reflect past experience, past events may be illustrative of effects that are possible.34 Several examples follow that were reported in congressional hearings, news media, and agency accounts.35
• Health. New patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinical center; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ceased disease surveillance; and hotline calls to NIH concerning diseases were not answered.36
• Law Enforcement and Public Safety. Delays occurred in the processing of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and explosives applications by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms; work on more than 3,500 bankruptcy cases reportedly was suspended; cancellation of the recruitment and testing of federal law- enforcement officials reportedly occurred, including the hiring of 400 border patrol agents; and delinquent child-support cases were delayed.37
• Parks, Museums, and Monuments. Closure of 368 National Park Service sites (loss of 7 million visitors) reportedly occurred, with loss of tourism revenues to local communities; and closure of national museums and monuments (reportedly with an estimated loss of 2 million visitors) occurred.38
• Visas and Passports. Approximately 20,000-30,000 applications by foreigners for visas reportedly went unprocessed each day; 200,000 U.S. applications for passports reportedly went unprocessed; and U.S. tourist industries and airlines reportedly sustained millions of dollars in losses.39
• American Veterans. Multiple services were curtailed, ranging from health and welfare to finance and travel.40
• Federal Contractors. Of $18 billion in Washington, DC, area contracts, $3.7 billion (over 20%) reportedly were affected adversely by the funding lapse; the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was unable to issue a new standard for lights and lamps that was scheduled to be effective January 1, 1996, possibly resulting in delayed product delivery and lost sales; and employees of federal contractors reportedly were furloughed without pay.41
For the federal courts, a prolonged lapse in appropriated funding in the future, it has been suggested, might have a noticeable effect on court operations and on members of the public in contact with the courts. A spokeswoman for the judiciary reportedly has said it would again consider using non-appropriated funds to continue operating, as it did during the 1995-1996 government shutdowns. However, serious disruption, she added, could occur if a shutdown were prolonged and funds were depleted—with district and appellate courts unable to keep jurors, court reporters, clerks, probation officers, or security personnel on the job. Each court, she said, would make an independent decision on which employees were “emergency” and which were not.42"
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL34680_20110311.pdf
Here’s how I see the script playing out: The House GOP passes the hail mary CR bill, so Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee get share the load for awhile. Of course, the House bill will fail in the Senate, but the House GOP holds firm. With Obama preferring the shutdown to the alternatives, government funding stops for a time. This is enough to assuage the hardliners, so a debt limit increase can pass. The shutdown gets old fast – daily news stories on unavailable services will do that – and a clean CR gets passed sooner rather than later. Public opinion about the GOP is already at basement levels, so there is not enough impact at the ballot box in 2014 to overcome gerrymandering, but enough backlash for Republicans to finally realize these fiscal deadline fights won’t work anymore.
http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/blog/2013/09/18/were-still-doomed