Rumor from down under

[AdAstraPerAspera]

I heard a rumor that once the 787s come on line, we're gonna take over the DFW-SYD route from QF
 
Seems to make sense if you think about it. I heard their 744s are weight restricted
 
-astra

 

[eolesen]

I'd count on it. QF will be parking 6 of their remaining 15 744's as part of their cost cutting initiatives, and that will be done sometime next year.

 

[FWAAA]

I assume that new AA will outfit its upcoming 787-8s with a high-density configuration compared to JAL's somewhat humane 186 total seats.   It would take two 787s at that configuration to carry the passenger load of one QF 744ER, but the 787-8 would have no trouble flying nonstop to SYD instead of stopping for gas in BNE.    

 

[robbedagain]

would it be profitable to do it from dfw to syd vs say sfo or lax

 

[FWAAA]

would it be profitable to do it from dfw to syd vs say sfo or lax

QF abandoned SFO, probably because of very limited connection potential and the competition with UA.    LAX is still the number one gateway and will continue to be so unless fuel prices fall off a cliff and stay there, which would make ultra-long-haul flights a lot cheaper to operate.   That's probably not going to happen, so look for LAX to remain the big gateway to Australia.        
 
DFW offers significant AA connections that aren't available at LAX, and apparently flying SYD-DFW is so lucrative for QF and AA (they have antitrust immunity) that they're willing to take the penalty of flying DFW-BNE-SYD on the way back.   

 

[WorldTraveler]

does it need to be a 789 for range and capacity?

 

[1AA]

First of all the 787 AA gets has to be able to fly the route under ETOPS rules. Do you think the FAA will allow AA to fly it without provng runs to prove operating dependability?
I doubt the routing for this flight will be nothing less than 180 ETOPS at best. These certifications take time especially with a new aircraft type in the fleet.

 

[IORFA]

Doesn't it come out of the box with 180 minutes ETOPS or more?

 

[FWAAA]

does it need to be a 789 for range and capacity?

D' Oh!   My bad.   Every time I look, Boeing has reduced the estimated range figures for the 787 family, now down substantially from their early optimistic estimates.   Looks like the 787-8 would have to stop in BNE after all.    
 
I agree about capacity - if you're going to pay four pilots to fly to Australia and back,  don't you want them to fly a whole lot more passengers than the 185-200 that will occupy the 787-8?   Unlike flights to London from NYC or CHI-NYC,  there probably isn't a whole lot of "frequency wins the business passengers" effect on a route like DFW-SYD.   As long as it's flown seven days a week, the business passengers should be satisfied.    I may be out to lunch, but I continue to believe that the 787-8 is destined to become the 762 of the 787 family.   It's just too darn small.

 

[RJcasualty]

Video on Qantas' problems, courtesy Australian Broadcasting Corp:  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/qantas-faces-deep-seated-problems/5289272

 

[eolesen]

AA won't fly LAX-SYD. QF will have 3x on an A380, so they really don't need any more lift there.

With the drawdown of QF's 744 fleet, I'd also expect "One Oh Late" (QF108, the LAX-JFK-LAX utilization tag) to disappear, perhaps with AA adding JFK-SYD or ORD-SYD.

 

[lpbrian]

Why should QF fly all LAX-SYD? Sounds like old conservative mgmt. Is there a law that prevents AA from landing in OZ? 787s are a game changer, and I feel we should see AA plastic soon in OZ .

 

[jimntx]

I assume that new AA will outfit its upcoming 787-8s with a high-density configuration compared to JAL's somewhat humane 186 total seats.   It would take two 787s at that configuration to carry the passenger load of one QF 744ER, but the 787-8 would have no trouble flying nonstop to SYD instead of stopping for gas in BNE.
[/quote
FWAAA, I like that. "High density configuation" sounds classier than "pack 'em in like Sardines."

 

[737823]

"High density configuration" sounds so much classier than pack 'em in like sardines. Don't you think?

It's what Parker and his team like. Apparently the A321T configuration is being "re-evaluated".

Josh

 

[boston]

Really, the A321T being re-valuated..oh no. Do you mean, that they may need to put the 777-300 on 3 class transcons or getting rid of the whole 3 class.
 
High density aircraft like USAirway's from what I've read don't have closets nor pax amenities. I did read they were making things a bit better, but not sure to what level.
 
Thanks