SELL AMERICAN II !

TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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Aloha,
Thank the Lord! Thats Lord Abbett. They raised their stake in AMR from 8% to nearly %17 since Oct. This is the reason that AMR stock has been inflated. Their constant buying kept the stock up. Now AMR stock will drop into the low $4 range in the near future. Probably after next Wed. When the war starts at the end of Feb, look at the low $3 range.
When AMR reports its 4Q report it will show the massive borrowing that it has done lately, the $3.3 BILLION pension underfunding, a huge rise in fuel costs, and a HUGE $1 BILLION+ loss in just the 4Q! The 1Q does not look any better either. Carty himself has said that AMR will NOT be profitable in 2003 and doesnt know when AMR will return to profitability. Not good for investors or employees.
Carty will use the war to open and negate current labor contracts. If labor doesnt want to play he will use the UAL, U trump card, bankrupcy, and force the Unions to. Carty has said that he doesnt want to take AMR through bankrupcy court, but I heard that from a Mr Compton, at TWA, just one month before TWA did. AMR is looking more and more like TWA did just before it went to court. Those who think the AA Union contracts are safe, just ask how the UAL Mechanics got a pay cut, last Fri., without a vote. It could happen people. Better wake up and smell the red ink.
Remember when some people said how, stupid, the TWA employees were to signed away their scope clauses in return for a PA contract promise of F&E intergration and to keep the rest of our contract intact? We told you we didnt have a choice. Well just look at the UAL situation and you will see we didnt. How safe do you all feel about your contracts today?
DISCLAIMER: Im not a F/A or 007, I do not work for AMR, I do own a stake in AMR. All calls are for entertainment purposes only.
ALOHA, 007
 

MiAAmi

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Aug 21, 2002
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I know this sounds foolish, but I say let them declare. There is no promise that they won't keep hitting us for money anyway. I've been through one bankrupt airline already. I'm going to take as much of the money we fought for now and buckle down for the storm.
 
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bagsmasher

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First of all, I'd have to own some AMR stock in order to sell any. Shouldn't your call be to "short American?"
Also I thought TWAFA007 had changed over to JBLUFA007 or something like that. Aloha.
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 1/17/2003 6:56:18 PM will fix for food wrote:

Geez.....Buy American...Sell American...Buy American...Sell American...make up your mind already...
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[/blockquote]
Aloha wfff,

I havent made a buy call for AMR since a year ago or so. That was before Worldcom, Enron, Global Crossing and others that hoodwinked all of wall street and took over $1 TRILLION out of the economy.

ALOHA, 007
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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Aloha,

AMR has drop over %20 in just a week to under $5. When people get to see the dismal report tomarrow the stock wil go into a free fall. AMR has lost over $4.6 BILLION in just 2 years. Add the $3.3 BILLION pension under funding and you have a serious cash problem. Of the $2.8 Billion in cash that AMR has over $2.3 Billion is borrowed! Amr debt load has gone form just %72.5 of revenue to %112.8. Under $4 a share is just a war away.

ALOHA, 007
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 1/17/2003 5:28:40 PM MiAAmi wrote:

I know this sounds foolish, but I say let them declare. There is no promise that they won't keep hitting us for money anyway. I've been through one bankrupt airline already. I'm going to take as much of the money we fought for now and buckle down for the storm.
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[/blockquote]
Aloha MiAAi,

Good move. I work as much as I could under the current pay and save for the BIG storm, make that a Hurricane, that will happen. AA is looking more and more like TWA prebankrupcy. The Unions have no power now. The Management will get their way on way or another. Carty will play the we want to be friends & partners with the Union, but if the Unions do not give everything AA wants then he will simply declare bankrupcy and void all the contracts. Win Win for AA & Carty. Carty will probally go this route by asking for BIG concessions that the Unions will not want. When he declares bankrupcy it will be very easy to blame the Unions. Just more fuel for his & AMR Million dollar lobbying efforts to do away with the RLA.

ALOHA, 007
 

TWAnr

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Aug 19, 2002
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[BR]
[BLOCKQUOTE]----------------[BR]On 1/21/2003 4:44:19 PM TWAFA007 wrote: [BR][BR]Aloha wfff,[BR][BR]I havent made a buy call for AMR since a year ago or so.[BR][BR]ALOHA, 007 [BR][BR]----------------[/BLOCKQUOTE]By my calculation, it is closer to nine months since you last stood by that buy call. You were also recommending US Airways in the same post:[BR][BR][FONT face=Verdana color=#800080 size=1][STRONG][FONT color=#000080]Topic: BUY AMERICAN !!![/FONT][/STRONG] [BR]posted 04-17-2002 08:15[/FONT][BR][FONT face=Verdana][STRONG]TWAFA007 [BR][/STRONG][FONT size=1]Post Captain [/FONT][/FONT][BR]Member # 1494 [BR][BR][/FONT][FONT face="Verdana, Arial" size=2]ALOHA, [BR][BR]Here is a post I made on USAviation Jan 30. Its is the same post I would make today: [BR][BR]"Now for something completely different. How about talking AMR$. Just before PB board I posted the same thread and Im still very bullish on AMR today. If you missed the under $20 then, I got in at just above $18, dont miss the under $24 now. Im calling AMR to hit $30 sometime after the 3Q. I believe we will see some good numbers then. We will see continue growth in airline travel and oil will remain steady. AMR has the strongest balance sheet of any airline flying and thus has the resources for controlled growth. In mid November of this year the US will completed its take over of security at all airports. This will bring an additional boost in traffic. [BR][BR]U is also a steal at under $5. If you are a gambling man try some AWA. AWA is like Chrysler. The government loaned them money and wont let them fail. They hate to lose their money. With another wave of consolidation coming there is a lot to play with." [BR][BR]I made some good money on U & AWA. Helps supplement the unemployment checks. You too can make money at AMR $24 & under. The 1Q comes out today I think they will beat estimates. Dont worry about oil, it will remain steady and dont forget who has the most oil hedged in the industry? No other the the biggest AA. They have 42% hedged. That is a huge savings. [BR][BR]So are there any other numbers guys or gals out there that want to talk numbers?
ultimatebb.cgi
 

flyhigh

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Jan 4, 2003
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MIAAMI,

I just don't understand the mentality you possess. Quit and go somewhere else if it's that bad...
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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Aloha twanr,

The post was made 1/30/02 on this board as I said. Now on that other board it was still before Enron, Worldcom, GLobal & others. As far as the U call the Unions didnt give management what they wanted so they went the bankrupcy way to get it. Just like UAL did and AMR will do if the Unions wont submit. Thats why Iv been saying sell ever since. The Lord inflated AMR stock. Now its time for a reality check. Hey, Im the first to admit it when I am wrong as I did on that call. At that time AMR cash position was very strong now with a +$2.6 BILLION loss and massive borrowing they dont. At least I wasnt recomending Worldcom or Enron like the guys on wall street. So do you think AMR will hit $3? What do you think. Kind of TWA deja vu.

ALOHA, 007
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 1/21/2003 6:27:05 PM flyhigh wrote:

MIAAMI,

I just don't understand the mentality you possess. Quit and go somewhere else if it's that bad...
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[/blockquote]
Aloha flyhigh,

What process dont you get form MiAAmi. Its called self preservation. The sad part is he might not have to quit. Theres a good chance that Carty will cut his job as they have done to over 10,000 employees as it is. Carty is going to cut wages, work rules and a lot of people. Name an airline were the employees gave concessions and actually help the Co. What happens is once you open that door it will always be open. How many cuts have the employees of U & UAL have already gone through? 2-3? More on the way. I wouldnt give a penny if I did not see a sound business plan in place. Carty, so far, doesnt have one.

Carty & AMR Management have no idea how to run an airline in todays climate. The same for the other majors. The rules have changed forever. No one will ever pay $5000r/t to fly 1st class transcon when you can fly on a leather seat & watch the Super Bowl live for $238r/t. That business model has collapsed. If, flyhigh, you dont think, "it's that bad," read the AMR reports tomarrow, its actually worse.

ALOHA, 007
 
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bagsmasher

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TWAFA007 writes:
"When AMR reports its 4Q report it will show the massive borrowing that it has done lately, the $3.3 BILLION pension underfunding, a huge rise in fuel costs, and a HUGE $1 BILLION+ loss in just the 4Q!"

Another bad call, AA just reported a $529 million loss. Half of what you predicted. Not that it's helping the stock. Under $5 now. Hiring BK lawyers probably didn't help.
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 1/22/2003 9:40:08 AM bagsmasher wrote:

TWAFA007 writes:
"When AMR reports its 4Q report it will show the massive borrowing that it has done lately, the $3.3 BILLION pension underfunding, a huge rise in fuel costs, and a HUGE $1 BILLION+ loss in just the 4Q!"

Another bad call, AA just reported a $529 million loss. Half of what you predicted. Not that it's helping the stock. Under $5 now. Hiring BK lawyers probably didn't help.
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[/blockquote]
Aloha Bags,

Thats the fun about Q reports. You can make a loss look anyway you want it to. AA report of a $529 million loss is without the special charges. If these were added to the loss it would have been over $1 Billion. Just look at the year results. They were $2 Billion before special charges and $3.5 Billion after. That extra $1.5 Billion loss is what I was counting. That makes a 2 year loss of over $5.3 Billion. Dont for get that almost all of AMRs cash is borrowed. AMR has already called for another $1.1 Billion special charge this year. AMR is in heavy negotiations with its creditors to restructure over $800 million in debt. The loss of '02 is almost twice that of '01. Not good.

Now my stock call of the low $4s by today was right on. AMR hit a low of $4.11 today. The low $3 will come soon.

ALOHA, 007
 
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TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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Aloha twanr,

If you like to quote old pposts from Jacks' board here is another one from that same thread.

10/11/02

"Im calling for $2.70 by the end of Jan or sooner, maybe just after 10/16. AMR will dip below $3 by Oct 16, when they release the 3Q. Look for a loss of over $600 mil & about the same for the 4Q. Thats another Billion dollar loss in just 2 Qtrs. Then there is the war factor and a pension fund question. There is heavy downward pressure on AMR."

In less then 2 weeks AMR has lost over half of its value. With higher fuel costs, the war, over $800 mil in debt due in June, $3.3 Billion in underfunded pension fund, the hiring of bankrupcy lawyers, over $5.3 BILLION loss in just 2 years, the delivery of 11 widebody aircraft it cant afford or use in '03, and labor troubles around the corner, AMR stock will continue to decline and bankrupcy is a real possibility. Its amazing how far AMR has fallen in just 2 years. I cant see AMR returning to profitability till 2005 if then. Even if the employees give a %20 pay cut across the board it might not be enough.

ALOHA,007
 

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