SELL AMERICAN!!! & your other stocks, NOW!
When I wrote BUY AMERICAN back in Jan. the fundamentals were there for a recovery around the 3-4Q. No one knew of Enron, Worldcom, & others would have CEOs & CFOs that lied. Almost a Trillion dollars vanished out of the economy. We at TWA should have known. Both Compton & Carty lied to the TWA employees a year earlier. Who knew they would be trend setters.
Bush has trounced the economy and he feels if he starts a war people will forget about the economy and concentrate on the war. Hey it worked for dear old Dad.
When the war starts oil prices will spike. The largest expense at an airlines is fuel. Take the huge drop off in air travel, especially international, and you have a huge double edge sword that will bring the airlines to their knees. Some are already there.
AA is not immune. Their debt, on senior secured notes, has already been downgraded do to the hocking of a lot of their assets. $3 a share is a real possibility once the war starts. Maybe even lower. I believe AA will not return to profitability in 2003. The 3Q report should be an interesting read.
Im the first to admit that I was wrong in my call, but just like a bunch of stockholders & brokers we were all a bit blind sighted. I was lucky that I had to cash in my stock a while ago to fund my living. I now recommend everyone do the same. Even at a loss it wont be as big of a loss after the war starts and the stock market REALLY tanks. Take a cash position now and save it for the day when it starts raining bombs. Should be a good buying point. Bush good for war bad for the economy. Who said war is good for the economy?
As far as AA, you know the bigger they are the harder they fall. AMR market cap is now under $900 mil. While JetBlue is double that at $1.8 bil. I hope when JetBlue buys AA that they treat the employees, fair & equitably.
Give JetBlue five years and see where they are. It always looks greener on the other side when you don't have to pay loans at this moment. Labor unions and debt collectors will be seeking out management, to pay up.
These new lows for AMR stock has for the first time pushed me to BUY,BUY,BUY!!!! Times are really bad but I think AA will be a survivor!! And at these prices I can't take too bad a beating if AMR does tank!!
PS God bless George W. Bush!! One helluva great President!!!
It's somewhat laughable to single out AA, and bash the management for something that they have little control over, namely the price of oil. Investors are reacting to the future price of crude. AMR ( stock price $6.00 range ) being the Escalade SUV of the airline industry is being given a thumbs down for the 4 cylinder JetBlue
( stock price in the $ 40 range ) that's all.
Still, Americans will return in troves when they're left with little choices but American. Carty's got the hood open and ready to do a much needed tune-up. If we can keep our hard earned tax dollars out of the hands of United and the rest, ( once they fold ), AA's stock will be in the $20.00+range by the time Old St. Nick arrives.
Buy more at $ 5.30.
Chicken or Beef, you mean we're still serving meals, let's cut the meals altogether.
On 9/19/2002 3:21:59 PM OLDFART wrote:
If we can keep our hard earned tax dollars out of the hands of United and the rest, ( once they fold ), AA's stock will be in the $20.00+range by the time Old St. Nick arrives.
Buy more at $ 5.30.
AMR - AMR CORP
Last Price: 4.85 at 15:51 EDT
Change: Down 0.97 (-16.67%)
High: 6.00 at 9:31 EDT
Low: 4.65 at 15:16 EDT
Previous Close: 5.82 on 9/18
30-Day Avg. Volume: 2,422,000
Hmm. Down over 25% in 2 days on nearly 4 times the normal volume? UAL up over the last two days. Think the market may know something that old fart doesn't? I said AMR was one month behind UAL. I was wrong, you are two months behind. Maybe you should worry about your TAX dollars going to AMR.
On 9/19/2002 12:43:48 AM Get Over It Already wrote:
FA007, perhaps you should stick to chicken or beef instead of stock picks.
The stock is down nearly 25% since I made the post to sell AMR and look at the rest of the market too. Those that remember me from the old Yahoo & PB days will say my stock calls were pretty good. Right now Im not making any money with the chicken or beef thing, but I am making a living playing the futures and I can say the future isnt so bright for AMR stock. $3 a share is a real possibility when the war starts.
War! UGH! What is it good for? Absolutley nothing!
[BLOCKQUOTE][BR]----------------[BR]On 9/20/2002 1:29:20 PM TWAFA007 wrote:
[BLOCKQUOTE][BR]Those that remember me from the old Yahoo & PB days will say my stock calls were pretty good. [/BLOCKQUOTE]
[P]I remember you from those days.[/P]
[P]I've been predicting for many years that the sun would rise the following morning, and so far I've been right 100% of the time. Your stock calls were just about as relevant as my solar prognostications. Predicting an obvioius trend isn't really all that impressive.[/P]
[P]Now, you're saying in one thread to SELL AMERICAN while in another you suggest we SAVE AMERICAN by buying stock...total contradictions. Which is it? Buy or sell? (note: this is a rhetorical question, I'm not looking for stock advice from you).[/P]
[P]I can appreciate what you're trying to do, but the fact is that the airline stocks (and the market in general) are extremely volitile, driven by news and emotion. You can try to predict the stock price all you like in the short term, but if you're wrong you'll look like a fool and if you're right it will be simple luck. Until the airline industry stabilizes, we're going to continue on this wild ride. When the investment community sees some signs of improvement here at American, you'll see confidence in the stock return. If you want to make a meaningful prediction, tell us when you think this will happen, and the stock price will surely show a positive trend in response.[/P]
[P]Predict this right now, and if it turns out to be accurate, I'll give you some credit. Predict a rising stock price after the airline starts showing a profit again and you're only stating the obvious...like the sunrise.[/P]
Striker if you do remember Yahoo & PB then you must remember that for more than 3 years I called more than just, trends. I gave specific stock price targets months in advance and every one of them came true. Not one person believed me, until they came true. I also gave Q calls that, while not 100%, were always very close. I took a lot of slings and arrows there and Im sure they will be launched here too.
Just look at my SELL AMERICAN. Since I advised everyone to sell AMR & other stocks, AMR is down 40% and the DOW is down over 300 pts. Is it really, simply luck. I gave a specific price point of $3 for AMR after the war starts, but now I think it could hit $3 with in a few weeks, or even possibly a few days. Not good.
Bush is taking the economy into a recession. Oil will be over $30 a barrel and go higher and the stock market will tank. Bush will start the war in the 1Q of '03. This will force most airlines, including AMR, into bankruptcy. Thousands more airline employees will lose their jobs. Great job Bush.
Now you want me to roll the, t-bones, and look into the future and predict the turn around. OK. The first sign of a turn around of AMR & the economy will not happen until at least the 3-4Q, 2004. The war is the wild card in this equation. By that time AMR will look a lot differently than it does today.
My SELL AMERICAN & SAVE AMERICAN are to different concepts. Sell means sell. The save is an idea to get voluntary pay concessions that will have to happen. This I feel is better in the long run then the going into bankruptcy and force the pay cuts. Unfortunately, due to Bushs' actions, I feel now the latter will happen.
Now a 007 side line on the war. If Bush wants to start a war against Iraq over, possible nukes. Then why are we not going to war against the, other axis of evil, N. Korea. We KNOW they have nukes and missiles to deliver them, so why not invade them too? Maybe I shouldn't give Bush, the war mogul, any ideas.
Watch for another good drop at AMR & airline stocks today, along with the DOW. Specific enough?
WAR! UGH! What is it good for? Absolutely NOTHING!
[BR]This is just what mangement wants at this moment. The stock is falling and the next hint will be chapter 11. I think they want everyone to think this so they can renegotiate contracts and take advantage of a desperate situation. [BR][BR]The only problem is that all of the unions may go for this. Management I feel will not let the company go into chapter 11 because they have too much to lose, (i.e. stocks). They will try to play this out to the last moment til they get what they want. Everything is cyclical and this is just a bad time. Things will get better.
Sure, you made a good call, but it's still stating the very obvious.
It might be obvious to you but not others. Look at the remarks made in this thread after I called last week that AMR will hit $3 and to SELL now. You could have keep that entire post. God bless George W. Bush!! One helluva great President!!! Screw the naysayers. FA007, perhaps you should stick to chicken or beef instead of stock picks. Buy more at $ 5.30. Its obvious it isnt obvious to most.
Trends are saying a stock will go up or down. Calls are specific prices with in certain time frames. When I stuck my neck out today before the open and said there would be another good drop TODAY at AMR & other airlines and that AMR would hit $3 in a few days. Thats not a trend thats a call. Nobody has made a call except for the bad one to buy at $5.30. Lucky Iv got long arms.
I agree with your with your time frame for the recovery. I too felt it more likely to happen closer to the 1Q, 2005, 3Q-4Q, 2004 at the earliest. Its just people dont want to hear bad news. Bush is pushing this economy into a recession and it will take a lot of time, a lot of job loses, and bankruptcies before we will recover. You are right we can only recover with a new management team in Washington, starting with the CEO. Bush has the potential to be the worse President in history in terms of the economy. Look at the economy when he started. It will be very scary to see were the economy will be when he leaves.
Now here are some trends that will happen well into next year. The stock market will continue to go down, oil will go up, interest rates will go down, gold & the Dollar up, inflation up, unemployment will go up, more airlines will go bankrupt and some will disappear. IMHO
As one of the first F/As on the recall list I thought I would be recalled by this summer as the economy recovered from 9/11. Now its obvious that Bush has no idea how to run the economy, but sure as HE** knows how to start a war for a distraction. Now, Im just hoping to be recalled before my 7 years on the list are up. Thank you Mr President.[img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/11.gif']