Standalone Dynamics

[ChockJockey]

Given that the US/UA merger talks have collapsed, what options and avenues for survival or success to you see US Airways exploring in light of a likely UA/CO deal and given that it is neither a true low cost carrier or legacy airline? I will list below some points/questions that are ripe for discussion given the current situation:

1. Is US's current business model sustainable or viable for survival or profit in the current industry environment?

1a. What assets does US have that it can better utilize or expand? Widebodies/Shuttle/Hubs/Markets

1b. What will US need to do/change in the short and long terms in regards to anything in order to remain viable, and how can US obtain capital, if necessary, to enact any changes?

1c. Does US need to reinvent itself? How so and into what kind of operation?​

2. With the new reality that US will not merge with UA, have the events of the past couple weeks done anything to change the situation in regards to the ongoing pilot crisis? (Not looking for East/West drama/who's sacrificed more/who's wronged who/"hurr durr u just wait n see" bulljive)

2a. Is the pilots' dispute US's largest and most obvious obstacle to viability/profitability/attractiveness as a merger partner?

2b. Given that US is going to remain a standalone carrier for some time is there any reasonable expectation that any of the parties involved with the dispute will be more motivated to see a resolution? (Again, looking for some sober analysis, not snide or butthurt commentary.)​

3. Given the possibility/probability/likelihood of a UA/CO merger, what if anything can US do to take advantage of the situation?

3a. Will US seek deeper ties with CO/UA within the Star Alliance framework or should US now reconsider its membership in the Star Alliance?

3b. What divestitures might we expect the govt to impose on CO/UA if any and can US position itself to take advantage of them?

3c. What value, if any, would US bring to any partnership with a merged UA/CO?​

4. Is US still shopping for a merger partner and if so who would now be the best one, assuming any are open to consolidation?

4a. American: This has been discussed in depth here before but with outstanding labor issues of its own and the recent half-billion dollar quarterly loss and extreme fleet incompatibilities how likely is this scenario?

4b. Frontier/Republic: Given fleet compatibilities and existing partnerships with regional carriage would such an acquisition bring any real value to US? How well would ops in DEN and MKE compliment the US route system?

4c. Southwest: Ha ha, just kidding. Or is there any future in being the mythical long sought-after international codeshare partner of WN?

4d. JetBlue: How well would JFK ops compliment the US route structure? Could this be the key to maintaining a formidable East Cost presence? Fleet compatibility is a also in favor.

4e. AirTran: Has indicated it is open to consolidation. Can fleet incompatibilities and overlap in regards to the proximity of ATL to CLT and BWI to DCA be overcome?

4f. Hawaiian: Given that it already operates 767's and is also ordering new Airbus widebodies, would acquisition of this airline and its operations in HNL make US a stronger presence internationally with easier access to Oceania and the Far East?

4g. Alaskan: Eh...nevermind.​

5. Does the proposed slot swap with DL still hold the same projected value in regards to how the game has changed?


A lot of serious questions here and a lot of people looking to share insights; indeed for many here these issues run a lot deeper than just the decisions and details they represent, but if all you've got to contribute is attitude and emotional baggage please keep it to yourself or take it to the nearest labor thread.

Best of luck to everyone, here's to happier days... B)

 

[wings396]

Either way the pilot issue needs to be resolved. Waiting until the merger dust settles with NW/DL & UA/CO is one option. Parker has said that the pulldown of any service at any major airline will be a step in the right direction to cut overcapacity in the industry. While I won't rule out a merger with AA, I have doubts about that taking place. Even if the pilot issue is settled, we are still dealing with 2 different unions to work out yet another deal. Given the losses at AA, I can't see them making any moves until they get their own company headed in the right direction. It all rests upon whether AA cares about being a distant 3rd behind NW/DL & UA/CO or not. I for one don't care much for AA and their attitudes towards the employees of airlines that they have merged with in the past. Don't get me wrong, I will come to work each day no matter what my uniform says, or who prints my check as long as I still get one.

 

[Dont call me Shirley]

2a - Other than US being simply too small in world of mega carriers, yes, the continuing pilots' donnybrook is the company's biggest challenge, IMO. Sadly, I see no solution in sight.

 

[Dog Wonder]

A thread based on cerebral problem solving instead of visceral what the heck were they thinking?

I am stunned and amazed.

 

[notquiteUS]

I 2nd those words Dog Wonder. Now if I could only make a halfway legitimate opinion to this somewhat intimidating post... I guess throwing my 2 cents in I'd say US Airways will go bankrupt within the next 5 years if some major changes aren't made. Time will only tell

 

[ChockJockey]

Well I just thought these were the same 19 questions everyone was asking themselves. :huh:

 

[HP2USFA]

Trust me - they're great questions! Just ignore those of us who have obviously have spent a little too much time in 'dumbed-down' threads. B)

 

[Kev3188]

2a. Is the pilots' dispute US's largest and most obvious obstacle to viability/profitability/attractiveness as a merger partner?


​

In a nutshell, yes. IIRC, this was a stumbling block in the latest UA/US talks; I can't imagine it wouldn't be just as big of hurdle w/any other carrier.​

 

[Barrister]

Either way the pilot issue needs to be resolved. Waiting until the merger dust settles with NW/DL & UA/CO is one option. Parker has said that the pulldown of any service at any major airline will be a step in the right direction to cut overcapacity in the industry. While I won't rule out a merger with AA, I have doubts about that taking place. Even if the pilot issue is settled, we are still dealing with 2 different unions to work out yet another deal. Given the losses at AA, I can't see them making any moves until they get their own company headed in the right direction. It all rests upon whether AA cares about being a distant 3rd behind NW/DL & UA/CO or not. I for one don't care much for AA and their attitudes towards the employees of airlines that they have merged with in the past. Don't get me wrong, I will come to work each day no matter what my uniform says, or who prints my check as long as I still get one.

If you look at cutbacks from mergers then compare the growth of JB, SW, Air Tran etc....there are obviously
fewer airplanes in the air, but clearly U has DONE NOTHING or very little to increase the revenue side
when it comes to expanding markets or growing the airline. Parker is so desperate to merge this airline
his desperation is palpable. My point?? as other airlines cutback....JB, SW, AirTran fill in....
we remain stagnant. Parker is putting on a good face and will never grow this airline to a point that it will really matter.

VNIIMN
NPJB

Moderator warning:
Leave the pilot issues out of this.

 

[john john]

It’s all been done before
“NO PLAN B”

 

[redheadtempe33]

Given that the US/UA merger talks have collapsed, what options and avenues for survival or success to you see US Airways exploring in light of a likely UA/CO deal and given that it is neither a true low cost carrier or legacy airline? I will list below some points/questions that are ripe for discussion given the current situation:

Best of luck to everyone, here's to happier days... B)

Thanks for the attempt at rational conversation rather than the usual bitching and moaning! I believe F9/RAH is a real possibilty. US is already well covered out east and fairly well covered out west. There are markets in the midwest we could try to enter with RAH as a partner or as a subsidary. DEN and MKE would fill in some holes in the US network and RAH has always been good to US. I think perhaps a code-sharing agreement would work better rather than an all out merger or buy-out.

 

[TBONEJ4J]

Thanks for the attempt at rational conversation rather than the usual bitching and moaning! I believe F9/RAH is a real possibilty. US is already well covered out east and fairly well covered out west. There are markets in the midwest we could try to enter with RAH as a partner or as a subsidary. DEN and MKE would fill in some holes in the US network and RAH has always been good to US. I think perhaps a code-sharing agreement would work better rather than an all out merger or buy-out.

Please let's not feed the parasite that is RAH any more than we are contractually obliged to.

The only reason they have any money to do anything is because US Airways and others have fed them cash profits through cost-plus contracts.

Perhaps when RAH fails (might not happen - but it's a big leap from guaranteed profit via contracted lift to running an actual airline and selling tickets) then that will remove quite some capacity. Truly a shame for the F9 and YX folks who involuntarily got mixed up with them, but I would have no problem seeing the RAH parasite go away.

 

[28L_or_10R?]

The talks between UA and CO are reportedly stalled. Click here for video.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

... I believe F9/RAH is a real possibilty. US is already well covered out east and fairly well covered out west. There are markets in the midwest we could try to enter with RAH as a partner or as a subsidary. DEN and MKE would fill in some holes in the US network and RAH has always been good to US.....

Me too.... plus NK.