Sw's Next City

[AirplaneFan]

Below are the top 113 airports in the continental U.S. The columns are the airport, 3 digit designation, total O&D passengers over a 3-month period (July - Sep, 03) and % of markets served by a low-fare carrier.

All 60 SW airports have an asterisk in front of the airport. All cities that have 50% or more low-fare competition (Atlanta, Denver, Long Beach, Akron, etc.) are highlighted in purple. Airports that do not have 50% low fare competition are in red and presumably would be SW targets. However, some airports would be ruled out (ORD, DFW, MIA) because it is a companion airport to an existing SW airport or its an airport that SW has ruled out (BOS, SFO).
Those cities listed in red would be likely SW targets for future expansion.

Based upon this where do you think SW will go next (and next)?

Airport Totalfaredpax %LFMkts
* Las Vegas, NV LAS 6220990 0.72
* Los Angeles, CA LAX 5903120 0.53
Atlanta, GA ATL 5624270 0.62
Chicago, IL ORD 5041670 0.09
New York, NY LGA 4548110 0.4
* Orlando, FL MCO 4546020 0.75
* Seattle, WA SEA 4211020 0.53
* Phoenix, AZ PHX 3984550 0.78
Denver, CO DEN 3965950 0.68
* Baltimore, MD BWI 3869680 0.86
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX DFW 3743420 0.22
New York, NY EWR 3710680 0.09
Boston, MA BOS 3567460 0.15
* San Diego, CA SAN 3176670 0.75
* Ft. Lauderdale, FL FLL 3149770 0.76
* Chicago, IL MDW 3065890 0.99
* Oakland, CA OAK 2992300 0.93
New York, NY JFK 2915220 0.76
San Francisco, CA SFO 2854710 0.14
* Tampa, FL TPA 2799230 0.73
Minneapolis, MN MSP 2769540 0.55
* Philadelphia, PA PHL 2758650 0.34
* Detroit, MI DTW 2735070 0.58
Washington, DC DCA 2310990 0.04
* Houston, TX IAH 2306110 0.08
* Portland, OR PDX 2278580 0.65
* San Jose, CA SJC 2137250 0.8
* St. Louis, MO STL 2022990 0.56
* Kansas City, MO MCI 1953770 0.66
* Sacramento, CA SMF 1869960 0.86
* Santa Ana, CA SNA 1868110 0.46
* Salt Lake City, UT SLC 1690690 0.68
* New Orleans, LA MSY 1618640 0.66
* Raleigh/Durham, NC RDU 1531090 0.59
Washington, DC IAD 1473620 0.35
* Indianapolis, IN IND 1423390 0.75
Miami, FL MIA 1404400 0.19
Pittsburgh, PA PIT 1390300 0.22
* Cleveland, OH CLE 1380510 0.45
* Nashville, TN BNA 1374520 0.73
* Ontario, CA ONT 1316890 0.83
* Houston, TX HOU 1277290 0.96
* Hartford, CT BDL 1226770 0.55
* Austin, TX AUS 1176440 0.71
* San Antonio, TX SAT 1166590 0.68
* Providence, RI PVD 1131280 0.74
Milwaukee, WI MKE 1116970 0.32
* Columbus, OH CMH 1112510 0.46
* Albuquerque, NM ABQ 1087510 0.79
* Burbank, CA BUR 1061940 0.92
* Dallas, TX DAL 1016020 0.99
* West Palm Beach, FL PBI 1014590 0.46
Charlotte, NC CLT 986290 0.24
* Reno, NV RNO 925100 0.84
* Jacksonville, FL JAX 912490 0.56
* Buffalo, NY BUF 902390 0.7
* Manchester, NH MHT 808310 0.77
Cincinnati, OH CVG 800850 0
Ft. Myers, FL RSW 777680 0.49
* Omaha, NE OMA 709620 0.67
* Norfolk, VA ORF 707410 0.56
Long Beach, CA LGB 689820 0.87
Memphis, TN MEM 651580 0.35
* Louisville, KY SDF 613080 0.66
* Oklahoma City, OK OKC 571320 0.6
* El Paso, TX ELP 548080 0.74
* Spokane, WA GEG 544850 0.77
* Albany, NY ALB 533320 0.64
* Tucson, AZ TUS 528320 0.55
Dayton, OH DAY 526230 0.43
* Birmingham, AL BHM 514580 0.74
* Boise, ID BOI 484410 0.81
Greensboro, NC GSO 483950 0.22
Rochester, NY ROC 474840 0.58
* Tulsa, OK TUL 465890 0.69
* Islip/Long Island, NY ISP 444850 0.96
* Little Rock, AR LIT 403560 0.72
Richmond, VA RIC 381800 0
Colorado Springs, CO COS 341890 0
Grand Rapids, MI GRR 341060 0.2
Myrtle Beach, SC MYR 315880 0.67
Syracuse, NY SYR 300970 0.37
Des Moines, IA DSM 292160 0.11
Savannah, GA SAV 277570 0.32
Madison, WI MSN 271250 0.06
Portland, ME PWM 233760 0
Pensacola, FL PNS 233320 0.67
Akron/Canton, OH CAK 228380 0.89
Charleston, SC CHS 225650 0
* Jackson, MS JAN 215090 0.64
Wichita, KS ICT 196550 0.43
Atlantic City, NJ ACY 190680 0.97
Burlington, VT BTV 183050 0.46
Knoxville, TN TYS 178330 0
* Lubbock, TX LBB 176010 0.91
Flint, MI FNT 171800 0.93
Greenville, SC GSP 163730 0
Tallahassee, FL TLH 159720 0.71
Huntsville, AL HSV 156120 0
Newport News, VA PHF 150970 0.95
Tampa/Lakeland, FL PIE 149170 1
* Harlingen, TX HRL 145570 0.96
* Midland/Odessa, TX MAF 137780 0.96
* Amarillo, TX AMA 129350 0.88
Sarasota, FL SRQ 123640 0.24
Gulfport/Biloxi, MS GPT 116020 0.7
Columbia, SC CAE 114650 0
* Corpus Christi, TX CRP 101980 0.65
White Plains, NY HPN 87750 0
Palm Springs, CA PSP 68430 0
Mission/Mcallen, TX MFE 65780 0
Daytona Beach, FL DAB 60980 0
Houston, TX EFD 20670 0

 

[dfw79]

Anyone have any idea what could be going on in DTW? A lot of buzz locally and on other less reliable boards, that they are fishing TOL and/or FNT for a relocation.

 

[LiveInAHotel]

I would bet on PIT or CVG. LGA would never fit SWA's profile. They wouldn't be able to make those 30 minute turns with all the traffic problems. I know SWA has been eager to get into PIT, but with the highest landing fees in the nation they may not go with PIT. SWA has surprised people in the past so who knows. CVG would be a good bet because of Delta's situation.

 

[wnbubbleboy]

My guess is Pittsburgh. Start connecting the dots to PHL now. Also, Collen Barrett stated in the message to the feild this year that underserved/overpriced markets are our target cities. PIT is ready.

 

[ClueByFour]

PIT is nowhere close to having the highest landing fees. However, a bond issued against future slot machine revenue by the state of PA will drop PIT's debt by about $150 million overnight, and a higher percentage of the PFC is being directed towards debt reduction to address PIT's cost issue.

That said, if you look at that list, PIT's the highest ranked (from a traffic standpoint) "metro area" that southwest does not serve that's a target (assuming that ATL and MSP are out for lack of an alternate airport, and NYC is served by ISP).

The PIT area is crying for rational fares, and WN could put the last nail in U's coffin simply by running 4x/day or so from PIT-PHL.

 

[funguy2]

My guess is IAD...

They need to do something for the LCC demand in Northern VA without allowing Independence or US Airways to be successful, at the same time defending their turf from jBlue. I bet they do a "surprise attack" on IAD soon enough, maybe as soon as some of the cracks begin showing at IAIR... (Of course, if IAIR does better or worse than expected, LUV could alter its strategy accordingly).

 

[luver41]

PIT and MKE look like no-brainers to me. Should get a lot of pax from the northern Chicago suburbs into MKE as well. From a pesonal perspective I'd love to see WN add CVG.

 

[FlyStorms]

I would think that Macon GA (MCN), about an hour south of ATL, might be an interesting choice to make an attack at the DL stronghold. I, too, think that MKE would be a good choice as well. What do you guys think?

 

[AirplaneFan]

Looking at the list doesn't give all the information. For example, MHT has quadrupled in size since SW came there in 1998. The list shows current O&D traffic, but not potential traffic.

With JetBlue's coming on the scene, it has caused SW to change its plans. I think SW went to PHL had virtually nothing to do with UAIR and everything with making sure that JBLUE didn't get a foothold in another large Eastern metro area.

SW has NOT HAD a lot of recent success with some of its latest airport picks (ORF, PBI, ALB) which I think is an additional reason for their pick of PHL.

I think SW needs to take a page out of the WestJet/ JetBlue playbook. They need to quit trying to put 12 flights into cities that just can't support them. SW should instead put fewer flights into more cities. I think SW could easily fill 6 flights to Richmond, Greensboro, Greensville, Charleston, Columbia, Myrtle Beach, Ft. Myers, Tallahassee. I think that SW should place more emphasis on getting its flag planted in more cities instead of trying to place a lot of flights

 

[jimntx]

I would think that Macon GA (MCN), about an hour south of ATL, might be an interesting choice to make an attack at the DL stronghold. I, too, think that MKE would be a good choice as well. What do you guys think?

Have you ever tried to get in or out of Atlanta in any direction at rush hour? I doubt there are enough people willing to fight their way out of Atlanta to get to Macon, and have to drive right past ATL on the way.

By the way, it's about 85 miles from Atlanta to Macon; so, that would be an hour drive at a high rate of speed in the middle of the night.

 

[CLTRDU]

How are O & D numbers calculated and by whom?

 

[Flying Titan]

Richmond.

 

[FWAAA]

Have you ever tried to get in or out of Atlanta in any direction at rush hour? I doubt there are enough people willing to fight their way out of Atlanta to get to Macon, and have to drive right past ATL on the way.

By the way, it's about 85 miles from Atlanta to Macon; so, that would be an hour drive at a high rate of speed in the middle of the night.

FTY (Fulton County Brown Field) would be a better choice for WN in Atlanta; just build some temp space like at ISP until the numbers justify building a large terminal.

 

[LiveInAHotel]

PIT is nowhere close to having the highest landing fees.

You're dead wrong on that!

MKE, would be a bad choice for WN at this time. NW is building a "mini hub" in MKE. This would be a good choice except for NW's rapid growth.

 

[spanky]

You're all wrong. You're focussed on pax. Cargo/mail pays the bills. Hence, ANCHORAGE will be the next SWA city! Alaska Air vacated its old terminal leaving a lot of open gates at ANC!!!!!!