Ted - An Analysis From The Boyd Group

Schwanker

Member
Dec 20, 2002
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It's Already Backfiring. But Mistakes Can Be Corrected.
Ted: It's The Same Costs,
It's The Same Dodgy Economics.
But It's Still United Airlines.

Never in the history of aviation has a simple coat of airplane paint been hyped so expensively.

We refer, of course, to United's "Ted", which is fast becoming a raging joke in the airline industry. Nobody outside of United itself seems to be buying the hype, nor the hogwash about how a new name, a sub-fleet, and not much else, will magically lower fares.

But in the final analysis, that's all it is - a foray into ivory-tower B-school airline theories. Essentially, Ted's just some A-320s in drag - United A-320s, staffed and operated by United employees, not newly-hired, shiny-faced kids who can't tell a flight coupon from a speeding ticket.. All Ted fundamentally represents is 45 all-coach airplanes drowning in a torrent of embarrassingly tacky PR and hokey marketing. Sure, it will mix products at the same hub. It will confuse the public (it already is doing so) and it won't materially reduce fares (if at all) below where they've already been. All that aside, Ted's nothing that can't be easily reversed. Mistakes can be fixed.

Nevertheless, that won't happen anytime soon. There's the issue of "face." For over a year, United's senior management has hung its hat on starting a "low cost" internal airline. That's just what Ted isn't, except in the fertile minds of the PR companies eagerly trying to develop Cleo-winning ads for the entity. With all the bucks and energies spent on this sideshow, to turn back now would cause United's senior management to look perhaps even sillier than they do already. So, it's full speed ahead.

The official roll-out of the concept on November 18 featured more delusional babble than a Democratic presidential debate. One UA VP, apparently thinking that the flying public and the rest of the aviation industry just fell off a turnip truck, touted the "savings" of Ted operating just one type of aircraft - gee, just like Southwest. He conveniently left out the fact that Ted isn't a stand-alone airline. The crews, maintenance, and other support for this coat-of-paint operation are part and parcel of the entire United system, have the same contracts, and represent the same fundamental costs as mainline United.

Another United VP, trying to dispel the (correct) notion that this is not much more than Son-of-Shuttle, claimed that the now-defunct United Shuttle was profitable its first few years, something that United's own president denied soon after it was started. The VP went on to say that the Shuttle went glub-glub when its costs went up - i.e., after it was blended back into the United hub system, when the Shuttle-related B-scale contracts ended, and its costs matched the rest of United's hub system. Oops, that pretty much describes Ted. Other than stuffing more chairs in the cabin, thereby creating a sub-fleet which can reduce operational flexibility, there's virtually nothing at Ted that will substantively reduce the sector costs of tossing an A-320 between two points. In fact, by increasing seat capacity from 138 to 156 seats, Ted flights will actually require one additional flight attendant.

Frontier: Gee, Ted, Thanks For The Free Advertising. The elaborate marketing program for "Ted" initially succeeded in giving the public the perception and expectation of new lower fares. Unfortunately, that perception - which simply isn't accurate - is starting to come around and bite United in the proverbial tail.

In its guerilla marketing campaign prior to the official unveiling, United had representatives of "Ted" running around Denver giving stuff away. Like, suddenly buying desserts for everybody in a given restaurant. Or a free latte to people in line at Starbucks. A free pizza. Or a free newspaper. Or, 100 free miles to Denver-area MileagePlus members. It built a "buzz." But by building inaccurate consumer expectations regarding fares, Ted has also given away something unintended: a free advertising bonanza to its main competitor.

Clearly, the target for Ted is Frontier Airlines. But United wasn't and isn't being clear about the simple fact that United has been already matching most of Frontier's fares. Worse, it's become the staple of investigative and consumer reporters in Denver to do fare comparisons between Ted and Frontier. In almost all cases, the findings are that consumers will pay the same, and sometimes more, to fly Ted, giving Frontier some very positive - and very free - publicity. The message: Hey, if you want a low fare, forget Ted. Call Frontier first.

The entire expensive advertising campaign intended to build awareness for Ted has been hijacked on the 11PM news to the benefit of Frontier, simply because it implied a perception that gave the public the wrong expectations.

It May Be A Misfire, But It's Still United Airlines. The Ted concept is clearly the product of some MBA class project run amok. It's likely going to end up much as the United Shuttle did - phased out.. But until then, it's still United Airlines in a slightly different livery. That means its competitors - at Denver and wherever this silly thing expands to - should not take it lightly. It will still be part of a professional global airline. At Denver, it will still be part of United's hub system. It will still have United service delivery, which is among the best and most customer-focused in the industry. (For example, United's customers don't get checked-in by agents who may be multi-tasking, i.e., sucking on a Quizno's soda and maybe even munching on a bag of Fritos - something not uncommon at some of United's competitors.)

So regardless of the color of the airplane, Ted is a management distraction and an expensive marketing detour for United, nothing more.

At least for now.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/
 
" That means its competitors - at Denver and wherever this silly thing expands to - should not take it lightly. It will still be part of a professional global airline. At Denver, it will still be part of United's hub system. It will still have United service delivery, which is among the best and most customer-focused in the industry. (For example, United's customers don't get checked-in by agents who may be multi-tasking, i.e., sucking on a Quizno's soda and maybe even munching on a bag of Fritos - something not uncommon at some of United's competitors.) "





Opps! The Boyd Group is slipping. The above certainly must have been overlooked during "edit".

Could it be that a certain poster has a new handle?
 
I thought the commentary was pretty much on target. Aside from his criticism of the guerilla marketing tactics - which I believe have worked pretty well since they drew significant news coverage and so many people were talking about it - I think Boyd is right.

The only advantage that TED seems to bring to the table is the extra seats, and that's partly offset by the need for another F/A. If TED is going to run through the same hub/spoke system, then it won't be possible to significantly increase aircraft utilization. If the wages and work rules are the same, then there will be no savings there. If none of those savings are needed, then why is TED needed at all??? Where will the savings/revenue enhancements come from? Also, if you're now managing and marketing a second carrier, doesn't that add to the overall cost???

Overall, it just seems like TED doesn't quite add up to me.
 
ual06 said:
Opps! The Boyd Group is slipping. The above certainly must have been overlooked during "edit".

Could it be that a certain poster has a new handle?
UAL06,

I certainly hope you aren't implying that I may be some infamous USAirways captian. If you are, I will take it as an insult. As you so eliquintly put in previous posts, I believe he resides in dreamland. I certainly have no beef with UAL as a particular poster does. Just posting an article which Boyd put out this week as a subject for conversation-the purpose for these forums. I'm not aware of him being a United basher, but if he is, shoot the message-not the messenger.

Take care and best of luck,

Schwanker
 
Don't even bother reasoning with our pilots. They are as delusional as our management, only more greedy. They'll go along with anything as long as in the back of their mind they can feed on the company again one day.
It is all non-sense. United could have done the same "buzz" marketing and sold another product (if that is what you want to call it) and still have been United. No confusion with the customers, or stupidity in the eyes of the industry. I looked at the project work to "give birth" to this TED by reconfiguring these A320's. Idiots, idiots, idiots. It's ALOT of work folks, ALOT!!! And it won't be easy or cheap or on time. And then you have a plane configured, painted and almost worthless from an operational flexibility standpoint. You see...with a "regular" United aircraft you could theoretically use anything on that route...no matter how you sell the seats or what you offer on the flight if anything. When a customer walks up to the gate, all he see's is a United plane. But lets say a "mainline" A320 goes down for whatever and all you have is a TED A320 available. When a customer walks up, he ain't flying TED, he's flying mainline...right? And if you try to put him on TED, well he's gonna want to pay a TED price. But TED will never be used for mainline right? But that service truck just wiped out your last mainline airplane. And this TED aircraft isn't going anywhere tonight but you can't use it because it's TED so you just go ahead and frigg'n cancel the whole damn mainline flight but that doesn't matter because by adding seats you saved money somehow? But go ahead and ask one of our VP's or pilots and watch what spew's forth. All you can say is "forgive them...for they know not what they do".....what a waste of 45 good aircraft. :angry:
 
Schwanker, the word is "eloquently".

Ual06, I thought the same as you. I think I'm reading another typically negative report by The Boyd Group when all of a sudden that paragraph stood out. I know, its the holiday season and The Boyd Group is sending a little "feel good" message to United employees. <_<
 
With the exception of the last paragraph, this is vintage M. Boyd. But then, afterall, he is a former UAL SCAB pilot. So why is this is surprise?

Let's see, Delta rolls out SONG and not too many people are singing the blues about that operation despite arguably higher CASM. UAL rolls out TED, and immediately people are saying it can't, no way in hell, work. C'mon folks. Give it a rest. Time will simply tell. And those of you who are busy comparing seat prices at this early juncture are simply wasting your time. Why would UAL IMMEDIATELY match price this soon for something that's still over 2 months away?

Given time and based upon inventory management I think you'll see SOME seats begin to match those of our competitor's in DEN. Why give away the store right now? That'd be like selling your house to the first low bidder! UAL isn't about to do that while they realize they're holding significant flexibility in this matter. If the target loads don't materialize then you'll see them come down. No need to panic right now. Just chill!

Cheers,
Z B)

P.S. Ronin, what's with all the negative vibes dude? Haven't you gotten laid in a while or what? Chill out man!
 
Ronin was willing to shut the place down last November to get his retro pay, but let's all keep telling ourselves that it's the pilot's fault. :blink:
 
I think Song is a joke too, but Delta actually has some money in the bank and some semi-good management. Song won't work either. But, UA is bankrupt, and is throwing away precious cash on a foolish boondoggle, that is almost criminal in its stupidity.

Whoever invented "Tard" should be beaten with a chair...


BTW, saw one of the UA 747-400's that went to Thai the other day, flying all white as a generic ghost plane.
 
HPearlyretiree said:
...but Delta actually has some money in the bank and some semi-good management...
Are you kidding me? Lets see... Mulin just resigned; no one really at the helm (some old fart comes out of retirement to steer the ship?); showdown with the pilots on the near horizon; not much more cash on hand than UA; large payments due in 2004 with credit rating in the toilet (much like UA's situation prior to BK); large pension liabilities and accelerated payments due soon too; on track to lose close to $400 Million in Q4 (according to the NYTimes); Airtran and JBlu poaching revenue; etc...

So tell us what great shape Delta is in again??????????

If Song is doing even half way OK, TED will kick some serious butt!

And ZMAN's point about everyone trying to kick TED, while no one says a bad word about Song is still valid. Boyd never has anything good to say about UA. Considering what he is, it shouldn't surprise anyone.

Everyone just Chill, and let's see how it goes. B)
 
OK, lets all take a bong hit and chill out like the ZMAN...like ya know, dude.
We can go tit for tat with you said, he said, apples, oranges blah blah. Pilots know what I think, I know what they think, enough said.
On the mellow side, I think TED is not a good idea. I think TED is an expense we could do without or better yet, we could use the money for a better purpose. It is going to cost alot to "retrofit" these aircraft, without I believe a return on investment. I understand the concept of taking a loss or breaking even on one portion of your business to bring it in on the other side, aka a service station. He doesn't make much on the gas, but makes money on the repair shop or convience store side. I do not think this equates to our situation. I think people have sold Tilton a lemon. Is there anyone on this board who hasn't been in professional aviation for the majority of their life? Then you know in your gut what I'm talking about. I hope this is a little more mellow for all concerned.
 
Compared to United, Delta is doing well. They still aren't all that great though.

As for waiting for Ted to be a great hit, I remember saying the same thing to the USAirways koolaid drinkers when they were posting that MetroJet would be such a great airline.

BTW, saw a MetroJet plane still in its red and black scheme flying for Phuket Air last week.