Ted Reed says AA can avoid a strike by TWU

[FWAAA]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10710397/1/why-american-can-avoid-a-twu-strike.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

No doubt there are some errors, but this looks like one of Reed's better articles.

 

[eolesen]

Dunno. Looks to me all Reed did was rehash Conley's letter and a couple of weeks-old quotes from Mike Boyd....

But the gist of the argument being made is fair. Only problem is AMR still can't afford much. Crain's Chicago came out with an article yesterday ranking UA, AA, and US as most in danger of a liquidation. At a travel conference I'm attending in SFO, one of the researchers here said AA has become the next Eastern -- employees simply don't care anymore, and they're willing to burn the place down out of spite. I think that was a little overstated, but the Crain's article isn't. AMR is in a crappy situation financially, and now that oil is back on the climb, how any airline comes up with money for raises is going to be that much tougher.

 

[Hopeful]

Dunno. Looks to me all Reed did was rehash Conley's letter and a couple of weeks-old quotes from Mike Boyd....

But the gist of the argument being made is fair. Only problem is AMR still can't afford much. Crain's Chicago came out with an article yesterday ranking UA, AA, and US as most in danger of a liquidation. At a travel conference I'm attending in SFO, one of the researchers here said AA has become the next Eastern -- employees simply don't care anymore, and they're willing to burn the place down out of spite. I think that was a little overstated, but the Crain's article isn't. AMR is in a crappy situation financially, and now that oil is back on the climb, how any airline comes up with money for raises is going to be that much tougher.

Do you really expect employees to care anymore?
Let's see if they start caring next month when executive PUPS are announced.

 

[FWAAA]

Will the PSP plan payouts happen next month? eolesen posted a chart late last year showing AMR's dismal performance against the stock of the peer group, but even before the conversion to the new forums I couldn't find it. I've looked since the conversion, and still can't find it.

 

[The Goose]

Will the PSP plan payouts happen next month? eolesen posted a chart late last year showing AMR's dismal performance against the stock of the peer group, but even before the conversion to the new forums I couldn't find it. I've looked since the conversion, and still can't find it.

There was an article (or item or comment) some time ago, somewhere, that said the poor babies won't be getting as much as in previous years, but they'll still get a payout of some amount - it's also subject to review and increase by the Board of Directors, according to what I read.

My bet is BOD-increased payout to ensure retention of the present executive trash as their replacements might try to run the AMR Corp. like a real business (assuming any takers could be found) and not simply an executive piggy bank. Considering the board's makeup, most executives would have more pride than to join up.

Sorry - can't remember where I saw this.

 

[jimntx]

I would not be surprised to see an announcement to the effect that "due to industry conditions the basket of stocks has been modified." (Only stocks still selling lower than ours on the determination day would be included in the new basket.) 😱

 

[eolesen]

From memory, AMR was sixth of seven

Since the new draft EU-US open skies 2.0 agreement will eliminate the caps on foreign ownership, changing the mix probably won't matter if the European carriers like LH and BA decide to take majority stakes in their alliance partners....

 

[TIME FOR CHANGE]

one of the researchers here said AA has become the next Eastern -- employees simply don't care anymore, and they're willing to burn the place down out of spite

Love that quote

Its been like that for a long time even with a raise most feel its to little to late

Got a match

 

[FWAAA]

Since the new draft EU-US open skies 2.0 agreement will eliminate the caps on foreign ownership, changing the mix probably won't matter if the European carriers like LH and BA decide to take majority stakes in their alliance partners....

I had heard that too, but this article seems to say otherwise:

The new agreement contains no commitment to change existing statutes that limit foreign ownership in U.S. carriers and bar foreign control of U.S. carriers, DOT spokesman Bill Mosley said.

Foreign ownership in a U.S. air carrier is limited to 25 percent of the voting interest in the carrier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/USEU-expand-Open-Skies-apf-1725734872.html?x=0&.v=4

 

[aapitbull]

From memory, AMR was sixth of seven

Since the new draft EU-US open skies 2.0 agreement will eliminate the caps on foreign ownership, changing the mix probably won't matter if the European carriers like LH and BA decide to take majority stakes in their alliance partners....

Looks like your magic 8 ball let you down on this one new agreement does not address foriegn ownership!!!

 

[MERV]

Yea a strike can be avoid if both parties agree not to disagree. The way economy is going no one wants to push it to that limit. Also the union will not push it to that extreme.

From what this article said no agreement has been reached on foreign ownership for now.

It is unlikely that Congress will rewrite ownership and control regulations anytime soon due to labor’s opposition to it, says Stifel Nicolaus analyst Hunter Keay. One reason the EU may have backed down on this issue is that anti-trust immunities may satisfy EU concerns about market access.

U.S., EU Sign Second-Stage Open-Skies Deal
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/awx/2010/03/25/awx_03_25_2010_p0-215346.xml&headline=U.S.,%20EU%20Sign%20Second-Stage%20Open-Skies%20Deal

 

[Birdman]

Crain's Chicago came out with an article yesterday ranking UA, AA, and US as most in danger of a liquidation.

This is laughable considering in the last 10 years, despite 6 major airline bankruptcy filings, only TWA has "liquidated" through acquisition. It appears AA's only propensity toward filling would be to dissuade its unions from any serious hope of gaining lost revenue.

 

[The Goose]

This is laughable considering in the last 10 years, despite 6 major airline bankruptcy filings, only TWA has "liquidated" through acquisition. It appears AA's only propensity toward filling would be to dissuade its unions from any serious hope of gaining lost revenue.

I hate to rain of some peoples' parades, but there was a change in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy laws as of 31 October, 2005. These were the changes DL and NW avoided by filing shortly before. Any bankruptcy history of other airlines can only be compared to events since that date, not ten years prior to today - only 5 years.

There's relatively little history to draw on.

From the legal opinions I've read, the working stiffs (us) may get a better shake than before but again - there's little history.

 

[FWAAA]

Frontier, Aloha, ATA and Skybus filed in a one-month span in early 2008 and Mesa filed earlier this year. Of the five, two are still flying.

 

[Bob Owens]

Frontier, Aloha, ATA and Skybus filed in a one-month span in early 2008 and Mesa filed earlier this year. Of the five, two are still flying.

And how many Majors have filed and liguidated? Small airlines going bankrupt and liquidating is hardly a rare occurance, In my career Ive worked for Capitol Air, Air Florida, New York Air, Arrow Air and AirBourne Express. I never expected a lifetime career out of any of them, It was simply a matter of putting in time to get the experience the Majors required. I remember a few of the Capital Air DC-10s turning up at LGA in AA paint schemes, people werent the only things that got sucked up.

If AA liquidated the economy would take a $60 billion hit. Would Capital risk it? Maybe, the chilling effect might quiet down workers in the rest of the industry for a year or so, but then again maybe it wont. If anything an AA liquidation would futher consolidate the industry, giving labor an even greater advatnage.