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On 1/20/2003 11:05:39 PM PineyBob wrote:
iflyjetz,
Let's review the video tepe from the recent past. When faced with huge losses and ultimately their very survival didn't Pan Am, Eastern & TWA sell assets to stay afloat prior to their ultimate demise?
UA isn't in all that different a position than those airlines. Do I see them having a fire sale of assets anytime soon? Nope! Situation not that desparate yet. What I think you might see is assuming that US does indeed emerge from BK then it is possible that some routes may be sold, swapped or contracted out to US. But a big outright asset sale? unlikely IMHO, who the hecks got the cash to do it, UA can't take an IOU. NW has some cash but do they want to spend it on UA? If the union situation gets really really ugly or we go to war with Iraq and it doesn't end in a few eeks then all bets are off as to what will happen
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PineyBob, I read the tea leaves the same as you. Once UAL starts selling gates, slots, buildings, route authority, simulators (of aircraft still in the fleet, like A320, 75/767, 777), etc, then UAL's in deep kimchee.
Sales of aircraft are less significant. I would expect to see UAL sell some -400s, since UAL currently has excess heavy lift capacity.
Another terrorist attack, protracted war w/Iraq, or some other economic shock, and all bets are off on UAL's survival. UAL is in a very fragile state, just as U, and other carriers aren't far behind.