Ual October Traffic

[Busdrvr]

UAL just reported Oct traffic:

RPMs
Oct 8,911,667 Sept 8,341,296

Load factor
Oct 76.6 Sept 74.9

UAL had an operating loss of 50 million for Sept. Oct results show MORE RPM's and HIGHER load factors (ie, MORE REVENUE). Won't be surprised to see a breakeven or better operating result for Q4

 

[Doc]

Your kidding right

 

[Busdrvr]

Your kidding right

About what part? What information do you have that's counter? Which stat that I quoted is incorrect? Well thought out reply though 🙄

 

[DLFlyer31]

The only problem with your analysis that I see is that you fail to look at Available Seat Miles. While UAL had more RPM's in October compared to September, UAL also had more ASM's in October compared to September. So UAL flew more people around the system, but they also flew more capacity around which adds additional cost. It's hard to say if UAL's October number's are really that much better than September....other than a slightly higher loadfactor (but even that can be deceiving depending on yields).

 

[Busdrvr]

The only problem with your analysis that I see is that you fail to look at Available Seat Miles. While UAL had more RPM's in October compared to September, UAL also had more ASM's in October compared to September. So UAL flew more people around the system, but they also flew more capacity around which adds additional cost. It's hard to say if UAL's October number's are really that much better than September....other than a slightly higher loadfactor (but even that can be deceiving depending on yields).

OK, lets put it this way. UAL ADDED more capacity for OCT, however, due to a HIGHER LOAD FACTOR, the increase in ASM was less than the increase in RPM's. additionally, UAL didn't add any more jets to the fleet in Oct, and now employ even fewer pilots. so the additional costs for the additional lift should be substantially less per ASM than the CASM for Sept. Questions?

 

[Doc]

My laughter was at your statement about the breakeven part in the Q4 . I understand all about load factors …..
Qct, Nov, are slow and yet you have this thought of breaking even when in the summer months you couldn’t, don’t get me wrong I’m not trying to paint gloom and doom I just don’t see it. Things are getting better though.

 

[Busdrvr]

My laughter was at your statement about the breakeven part in the Q4 . I understand all about load factors …..
Qct, Nov, are slow and yet you have this thought of breaking even when in the summer months you couldn’t, don’t get me wrong I’m not trying to paint gloom and doom I just don’t see it. Things are getting better though.

Then I'd say "think before you laugh". UAL DID post a profit in JULY and AUG, and had an operating loss of ONLY 50 million in Sept. Now take a look at the oct numbers (the weakest month of the Q) and I think it is reasonable to expect a breakeven quarter. In any case, if revenue MATCHES last years 4th Q (when UAL was threatening BK), the numbers suggest BE. Oct RPMs were only down 2% with a much higher yield