United States economy doomed …

[freedom]

United States economy doomed …

I give it three to five years before total collapse .

Why do I say this ?

1. OIL , oil as we all know is the backbone of the us economy , and it’s like someone’s just taken our backbone and snapped it over their knee like a twig .. I don’t believe that our country can survive with oil prices as high as they are today ,, maybe somewhere in the 110 to 120 range … but I don’t see the prices falling that low until we’ve sustained critical damage ..

2. The us government is almost bankrupt ..it wasn’t too long ago that old uncle sam had to give himself another credit extension by raising the maximum federal debt level ..Right now we’re nine trillion dollars in the hole …. It won’t be long again until we hit our ceiling …oh hey , by the way , the expensive and draining war in iraq isn’t helping this problem .

3 our long term obligations are soon to roost , I forget which medical system is going dry , but wasn’t the government warning us about one of them going under in 2017 ? Not to mention that most of the states in our country are in the red , and the same goes for a lot of cities as well … How will the gov be able to jump start the economy if there’s nothing in the bank , and if we know there’s nothing in there and the world knows , you can expect our dollar to plummet … (CLEAR!!! Voomp! , voomp! , that’s the sound of the paddles not reviving the economy . )


sorry this isn’t a very thought out post …. I’m just going off the top of my head here … I’ll write something a bit more comprehensive when I get the chance , but that’s about it in a nut shell …. T
:cold: oast baby , toast ….

 

[jimntx]

When things look blackest, you're always there with the voice of doom! Just like me. That's why I like you. I don't care what the others say.

 

[American Air Surf]

United States economy doomed …

I give it three to five years before total collapse .

Why do I say this ?

1. OIL , oil as we all know is the backbone of the us economy , and it’s like someone’s just taken our backbone and snapped it over their knee like a twig .. I don’t believe that our country can survive with oil prices as high as they are today ,, maybe somewhere in the 110 to 120 range … but I don’t see the prices falling that low until we’ve sustained critical damage ..

2. The us government is almost bankrupt ..it wasn’t too long ago that old uncle sam had to give himself another credit extension by raising the maximum federal debt level ..Right now we’re nine trillion dollars in the hole …. It won’t be long again until we hit our ceiling …oh hey , by the way , the expensive and draining war in iraq isn’t helping this problem .

3 our long term obligations are soon to roost , I forget which medical system is going dry , but wasn’t the government warning us about one of them going under in 2017 ? Not to mention that most of the states in our country are in the red , and the same goes for a lot of cities as well … How will the gov be able to jump start the economy if there’s nothing in the bank , and if we know there’s nothing in there and the world knows , you can expect our dollar to plummet … (CLEAR!!! Voomp! , voomp! , that’s the sound of the paddles not reviving the economy . )


sorry this isn’t a very thought out post …. I’m just going off the top of my head here … I’ll write something a bit more comprehensive when I get the chance , but that’s about it in a nut shell …. T
:cold: oast baby , toast ….

This is not a figment of your imagination- We are in deep, deep S**t ...

Listen to this.... "Storm Tracks"


http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Stormtracks.html

and read this....

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/1020.html

 

[Gilding the Lily]

United States economy doomed …

I give it three to five years before total collapse .

Why do I say this ?

You forgot to mention Y2k.

On a more serious note, I disagree with your conclusion of doom.

I agree that we are still in the early days of this financial crisis. At best, it is durable stagflation; at worst, it is a recession. But I think we are very far from a depression and, more importantly, very far from economic doom.

It is, however, kool-aid drinking at its best to believe that we will have a quick turnaround by the second half of 2008 as some analysts believe. The second half is practically here!

Something else that should be added to your list: the credit crunch. Yes, I know: it is old news. Not really though. The analysts have yet to incorporate the losses from high-yield bonds. This will bring another $150 billion or so to the loss, bringing the total net-worth loss of $1.1 trillion in assets.

Moreover, housing property values are down... by at least 10%. Since Americans will find it harder to use their house as the ATM, they cannot buy goods as often. Since consumer spending makes us the biggest chunk of GDP, that chuck of GDP will fall.

 

[777 fixer]

If enough people think the sky is falling then that's exactly what will happen.

It seems that people have short term memories. I've mentioned this before but does anyone remember the late 70's early 80's? We had stagflation, unemployment around 10% entire industries disappearing overnight from certain parts of the country. Yet in the end what happened? The economy eventually turned around.

 

[Gilding the Lily]

If enough people think the sky is falling then that's exactly what will happen.

It seems that people have short term memories. I've mentioned this before but does anyone remember the late 70's early 80's? We had stagflation, unemployment around 10% entire industries disappearing overnight from certain parts of the country. Yet in the end what happened? The economy eventually turned around.

Self-fulfilling prophecies. It is similar to the rumor-mongering by greedy short sellers. If they keep spreading unflattering rumors, although they are untrue at the time of spreading, they can become true once it reaches the end of the grapevine. Ask E-Trade how they felt about that.

Here, it is a catch-22 in some respect though. Due, in part, to the "sky if falling" mentality prevalent in many corners of the internet (which is only exasperated by EVERYONE having access to the internet, including those that would be passed over as cooks would it not be for the "anonymous" blogs), many consumers are spending less and less of their disposable income. This is a good thing in one regard, as many consumers have been living well beyond their means and are now choosing to save rather than buy that second Coach purse. It is a bad thing because that chunk of GDP may significantly drop, causing many undesirable results.

This is a market correction.

 

[freedom]

I disagree that this is a market correction , this is the us economy falling off of a cliff ….(slowly)

Your right about the credit crunch .. really it’s three things working together that are going to give us the knock out punch … Oil , mortgage meltdown and the credit crunch …. These are the KO punches that are going to knock out ole uncle sam ….

Some minor jabs that are being thrown out are also freddy and fanny mac ,americans having almost no savings and the war in Iraq …

Here in Arizona a lot of our economy is based on service industries , travel and construction ….. travel is dying off fast , construction has come to a grinding halt and in the east valley which is nothing but box stores, you can expect to see unemployment fly to unseen levels ….

I imagine most of our country is in a similar paradox ..


This all isn’t happening overnight thank god … it’s like a slow unspooling … which at least gives some of us time to prepare …. I sure hope our government is preparing for this as well and not just running around going “what do we do ? what do we do “

Let me be the first to say to all of you , greetings comrades !

 

[KCFlyer]

This all isn’t happening overnight thank god … it’s like a slow unspooling … which at least gives some of us time to prepare …. I sure hope our government is preparing for this as well and not just running around going “what do we do ? what do we do “

If McSame is elected, brace for the worst, as his "economic advisor" is Phil Gramm - who is in large part responsible for the meltdown in mortgages.

 

[freedom]

phil so and so , i don't know who he is... while i'm not a democrat , nor republican , i'm leaning for obama because he might be closer to getting us on the right track ... ...

europe is starting to weaken ....


Oil is crushing jobs here at home ... why just look at the us airways boards , more and more layoff's are appearing as if out of thin air ...

Our industry is the first one that's going to take the hit ...

 

[Veritas]

Phil Gramm

 

[777 fixer]

If McSame is elected, brace for the worst, as his "economic advisor" is Phil Gramm - who is in large part responsible for the meltdown in mortgages.

In the end the person responsible for the mortgage meltdown are the people who signed their names on the mortgage paperwork.

 

[KCFlyer]

In the end the person responsible for the mortgage meltdown are the people who signed their names on the mortgage paperwork.

YOu know how "deregulation" has worked so well for the airlines? It's done the same thing for banks, brokerages and other lending institutions. Gramm's move basically abolished the Glass-Steagall act, which pretty much kept brokerages out of the banking business. When they dropped that, and "packaged" loans to brokerages, the temptation for the "quick buck" put a lot of unqualified people into loans they could not afford, once the "teaser rates" adjusted upwards. But...according to Phil, this recession is all in our heads.

 

[777 fixer]

YOu know how "deregulation" has worked so well for the airlines? It's done the same thing for banks, brokerages and other lending institutions. Gramm's move basically abolished the Glass-Steagall act, which pretty much kept brokerages out of the banking business. When they dropped that, and "packaged" loans to brokerages, the temptation for the "quick buck" put a lot of unqualified people into loans they could not afford, once the "teaser rates" adjusted upwards. But...according to Phil, this recession is all in our heads.

We are not talking about airline deregulation. What we are talking about is the fact that when it's all said and done you are responsible for what you sign your name to. Becasue there is only one person who cares about what's best for you.

 

[KCFlyer]

We are not talking about airline deregulation. What we are talking about is the fact that when it's all said and done you are responsible for what you sign your name to. Becasue there is only one person who cares about what's best for you.

You're right. Super duper low airfares are "best for me", so my demand has YOUR company cutting jobs, wages, and benefits so that they can still sell me a seat for the price I demand. I don't care if you have to sell a car or move out of the house to live...what's best for ME is what the past 8 years have taught me. Now you can #### and moan all you want about the state of your industry, or the ineptitude of your management, but when it comes down to the brass tacks, you could always quit your job...nobody's holding a gun to your head. Just like nobody held a gun to the head of someone who signed a note a 3% mortgage on a house...but the broker glossed over the itty bitty fine print that said it would double or triple it's rate in 5 years.

And nobody held a gun to a brokers head and told them to sell a bunch of high risk loans to a brokerage house as an "investment vehicle". Indeed, the idiots at Bear Stearns bought a bunch of those very "vehicles". Now the difference in the Bush economy is that the idiot who didn't pay attention to what he was signing for his 2 bedroom bungalow is told "tough luck", while the idiots who bought billions of "mortgage backed investments"...something that boy genius Phil Gramm enabled... faced bankruptcy...and was BAILED OUT by the government.

Greed does funny things in a deregulated market, and I hope I was able to illustrate it above. Greed has made folks buying airline tickets thing that anything more than $250 for a round trip transcon flight is a ripoff. Greed makes a commissioned mortgage broker sell riskier loans. Greed makes some people look at their homes like an ATM and take buy the crap mortgages being peddled by the mortgage broker. And greed and great fees make investment banks buy up the VERY SAME CRAP that was peddled to Joe Schmoe. Only the investment bankers still pull their 7 figure paychecks, and the taxes paid by Joe Schmoe go to bail him out. That's what we've got to look forward to with a McSame presidency...especially if his economic genius becomes treasury secretary.

 

[Gilding the Lily]

Greed does funny things in a deregulated market, and I hope I was able to illustrate it above. Greed has made folks buying airline tickets thing that anything more than $250 for a round trip transcon flight is a ripoff. Greed makes a commissioned mortgage broker sell riskier loans. Greed makes some people look at their homes like an ATM and take buy the crap mortgages being peddled by the mortgage broker. And greed and great fees make investment banks buy up the VERY SAME CRAP that was peddled to Joe Schmoe. Only the investment bankers still pull their 7 figure paychecks, and the taxes paid by Joe Schmoe go to bail him out. That's what we've got to look forward to with a McSame presidency...especially if his economic genius becomes treasury secretary.

I know it is a "cry me a river" scenario, but you must understand that most of those i-bankers have lost their jobs in the past 9 months. No more 7 figures for those folks... more of them have likely lost their jobs this year that those in the airline industry.