When did they exactly know they were in big trouble?

[LambertMan]

I know that the obvious answer is 9/11, but wasn''t there any other glaring signs that UAL was going to be in some serious trouble? Does anyone know when UAL figured out they would be up a creek? Thanks for any replies

 

[Falco]

Pre-9/11, Greg Brennaman at Continental was telling some CAL employees that UAL would end up in bankruptcy.

 

[FWAAA]

----------------
On 6/19/2003 9:54:31 PM AA763 wrote:

I know that the obvious answer is 9/11, but wasn't there any other glaring signs that UAL was going to be in some serious trouble? Does anyone know when UAL figured out they would be up a creek? Thanks for any replies

----------------​

It was pretty obvious to me in late 1999 and early 2000 when UAL stock began its crash from about $90 to about $30. That was a clear sign that investors had lost confidence. Then came the Summer From Hell, and it was clear that the airline was in a tailspin.

 

[Segue]

Then they shot the messenger.....

 

[kcabpilot]

I believe it was March of 2000 when Goodwin announced that - hell or high water, United was going to buy USAir. Forget about the seamless post-ESOP contract renewals, the Pilots and Mechanics were just gonna have to sit tight while this aquisition was done. All energy, all thought was absorbed by this prospect - pure tunnel vision.

It was the day after that announcement that the stock lost about 30% of it''s value - the start of a slide that never stopped.

 

[manyjob]

I also believe that not only did this kill things with the investors, but with the employee owners. I remember the general talk about it at the time being "Wait, didn''t we say we didn''t want this transaction once before? Why are they now forcing it down our throats without our say-so?" So now you''ve got an angry, demoralized workforce.

 

[UAL_TECH]

kcabpilot,
Dead On!!!





Here is an interesting 4 part article from the Denver Post:
united divided - part 1 Turbulent times
united divided - part 2 Flying on fumes
Excerpt:
***************************************
Goodwin assured the pilot chief he was committed to reaching a new agreement by April 12, when the old contract''s term would end. Dubinsky wanted that target date to become a firm deadline, and Goodwin agreed.
It was a critical mistake, the first in a series of miscalculations by the new chief executive. At a time that demanded extraordinary toughness and leadership skills, Goodwin was known as a nice guy who had won the airline''s top job because he was palatable to its labor unions.
The next 18 months would see Goodwin focus more intently on a doomed effort to buy US Airways than on the all-important pilots'' contract. He and his management team also would fail to appreciate the severity of the technology-led economic downturn. Perhaps most significantly, Goodwin would be unable to rally United''s employees behind any of his plans for the company, a failure that would prove catastrophic.
*******************************************

united divided - part 3 Staying aloft
united divided - part 4 Clearing the way

After the announcement of the USAir merger, UAL Stock dropped sharply as investers lost confidence. However, Goodwin never gave up on the USAir merger and ignored the previous promise to ALPA & IAM of ''Seemless, Industry Leading Contracts at the end of the ESOP period''. Had Peternuts voted with MadDog, the USAir debacle would have never happened. Having Peternuts on the board has been a diservice to both the UAL IAM Membership, and United Airlines.

If management would have acted like ''Owners'', and treated their employees like ''Owners'', employees would have acted more like ''Owners''. As ''Owners'', there would have been a greater desire to pitch in to save the company.

IMHO,
UT

 

[gatemech]

All of this is old news and past history. The biggest problem is that UAL still hasn''t learned how to treat their most valuable asset. It''s employee''s !!! Once that happens then maybe UAL can be the airline it should be. All I see is supervisors focusing on firing people if it makes them look good. None of them focus on aircraft of passengers. If they did that and treated the employees with some respect then UAL could be the best airline in the world.

I knew we were in trouble when my lead thought he was management at the beginning of the ESOP and started stabbing all of us in the back. That kind of empowerment ran wild.

People blame Goodwin for the USAir deal. I remember an article interviewing Greenwald shortly after the ESOP started. They were in talks with USAir. Nothing happened. Greenwald stated that he didn''t have enough voting power to do the deal. If he had it probably would have happened around 1996. Give or take a year.

It''s all water under the bridge. I have said this before. United wants to compete with SW. Then start by treating the employees like SW does. Everything else will fall in place. Too many kingdoms would have to fall for that. It will never happen.