A380 Success?

[1AA]

Seeing that Airbus has just made the A380 public, do you think it will be a success?
Do you see this new aircraft in the U.S. being profitable for Airbus and any U.S. carrier in the future? Do you feel Airbus designed this aircraft to say they have the biggest passenger aircraft in the world?
Will it be an overall success or a long term failure?

 

[SilentWarrior]

Seeing that Airbus has just made the A380 public, do you think it will be a success?
Do you see this new aircraft in the U.S. being profitable for Airbus and any U.S. carrier in the future? Do you feel Airbus designed this aircraft to say they have the biggest passenger aircraft in the world?
Will it be an overall success or a long term failure?

[post="239848"][/post]​

I believe that it will be a success for several reasons.

1) Passenger loads in the Long Haul Hub-to-Hub flying will continue to increase.
2) Although the A380 is setup to carry 555 passengers (out of box) it can be reconfigured to handle 840 passengers Southwest style.
3) Given its size, it is still more fuel-efficient than the Boeing 747.
4) It has a head start on Boeing’s 7E7.

Some issues that could make it a rough road.

1) It’s BIG and there are only a select number of airports that it can fly into.
2) It currently still has a noted weight issue. (What exactly I do not know)
3) Airbus is still around 100 orders short of breaking even. This I believe is mainly due to companies more or less doing a wait-n-see.
4) Boeing will release a smaller more efficient 7E7. This will allow for more flexibility and might appeal to a larger market.

In a nutshell, it is too early to really tell. As in all things, time will be the deciding factor in this story.

 

[SVQLBA]

I think there's both room and a need for both the 7E7 and the A380. London, NY, Tokyo aren't getting any smaller and the ATC issues are getting worse, and fuel prices aren't getting lower. However, network fragmentation will continue, saving those of us that don't relish doing international connections thru hubs.

 

[jimntx]

I think the population growth in Asia coupled with an increasing standard of living for people in that part of the world makes the a/c viable. Particularly for routes such as Peking-Shanghai, or Shanghai-Hong Kong in domestic service, and the Singapore Airlines long-hauls in the International.

I don't think it will sell at all to the U.S. domestic market unless ATC issues become truly critical at places such as LGA and ORD. Some U.S. airlines may buy a few for International service just to say they have one (or two).

However, as a culture, Americans require much more personal space than most people in the world. I don't see them willing to travel in herds of 550+.

Plus, would you do this to your gate agents? With the staff cutbacks at every airline, can you imagine the chaos at boarding time--particularly in the 800+ configuration?

 

[mweiss]

It will be a loooong time before we see the 380 used in domestic service in this country. We simply don't have the population density necessary to support it. But Japan does. So does China. India too. And some European cities.

 

[SVQLBA]

I don't think it will sell at all to the U.S. domestic market unless ATC issues become truly critical at places such as LGA and ORD. Some U.S. airlines may buy a few for International service just to say they have one (or two).

It will be an amazing sight to see an A380 at LGA!

 

[coolflyingfool]

For many airports, I think there could be severe scheduling issues if more than 2 A380s are on the ground at the same time. I don't know of any boarding areas that can handle even 700 pax, much less 840. If the planes arrive within 10 minutes of each other, I would hate to see baggage claim area. Not many airports can handle the A380 and that is exactly where they will be flying. I can actually see LAX with 3 or 4 A380s at the same time. Virgin, Qantas, Singapore, Air France, and Malaysia all serve LAX and could have an A380 on those routes. OUCH!! IF LAX and SFO are both fogged in, where does the A380 divert to? For a few years there will be some logistical issues to get through. After 2015, I think there really won't be any issues. It will be just like when the B747 came on scene. After a while, no biggy. Just my thoughts.......

 

[Ch. 12]

It will be an amazing sight to see an A380 at LGA!

[post="240093"][/post]​

I imagine you might see one in Flushing Bay if it were to try to land at LGA.

 

[FM2436]

I believe Michael Boyd puts it best about the A380:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/predict2005.htm

Boeing - Airbus Dogfight. We'd point to the situation between Embraer and Bombardier/Canadair in the mid-1990s. The Canadians were eating the Brazilians' financial lunch, as far as RJ orders went. Embraer, however, looked over the horizon, and invested in a follow-on airliner in the 70-110 seat category. (By the way, the 170/190 is not a regional jet, as many lightweights in the media describe it. If that's the classification, then so are similar size airliners, including the 737-500/600, DC-9-30, and the A-318.) Going forward, the same situation seems to be playing out in the Boeing/Airbus saga. Right now, Airbus is selling more current-generation airplanes than Boeing. Just like Bombardier did v Embraer in the mid-90s. Just like Saab was doing with turboprops v Embraer in the 1980s. But that was no indicator of the future for any of these companies. Today, Embraer is wrestling with the thorny problem of adding more production capacity. Bombardier is laying off staff. Saab is out of the airliner business completely.

In that context, let's do some righteous forecasting. Boeing is building the 7E7 - a replacement for existing 757/767/A-300 airliners, offering 15% - 20% better economics. Airbus is building the A-380 WhaleJet - a 550-seat replacement for the 747. Let's be blunt. The 7E7 is based on hard futurist fleet projections. The A-380 is a political airplane - the Europeans want a monument to show off to the world, one that shows their industrial prowess is better than that of the US.

And that perfectly describes the Concorde program of the 1960s. The WhaleJet may be no different.

 

[Hopeful]

I think the jury will be out quite awhile on this one. What I think will happen is that this aircraft will reduce congestion because of it's capacity. Airlines probably will reduce frequency on routes. I do not think that the mere introduction of this jet will increase loads and make more and more people want to fly because of it.

As for the Boeing 7E7, I think it will be an apt replacement for the 757/767. Personally I feel Boeing should have stuck with the short lived idea of the Subsonic Cruiser so people would've spent less time in the air. And it would not have been as expensive as the SST.

 

[Dizel8]

I ink the A-380 will do well over time and the 7E7 likewise. The A-380 will excel on high density routes and the 7E7 will be capable of serving longer thinner routes. They fit two different niches.

As for the comment on americans desiring more space, the A-380 is suposed to offer more personal space the 747. Secondly, AMR's excellent idea of offering the MRTC product surprisingly fell flat on the consumer.

 

[RDU Jetblast]

I also think it has to meet a certain time limit to evacuate before the FAA grants certification in the US. Can you imagine?

 

[mweiss]

One would think that 16 oversized exits should help matters.

 

[SVQLBA]

... although that's one hell of a slide from the top deck. It should be fun to watch the emergency evacuation certification test video, which they'll do with an 800+ person interior fitted.

 

[DFWFSC]

For many airports, I think there could be severe scheduling issues if more than 2 A380s are on the ground at the same time. I don't know of any boarding areas that can handle even 700 pax, much less 840. If the planes arrive within 10 minutes of each other, I would hate to see baggage claim area. Not many airports can handle the A380 and that is exactly where they will be flying. I can actually see LAX with 3 or 4 A380s at the same time. Virgin, Qantas, Singapore, Air France, and Malaysia all serve LAX and could have an A380 on those routes. OUCH!! IF LAX and SFO are both fogged in, where does the A380 divert to? For a few years there will be some logistical issues to get through. After 2015, I think there really won't be any issues. It will be just like when the B747 came on scene. After a while, no biggy. Just my thoughts.......

[post="240336"][/post]​

Imagine the ground handler at LAX that may end up with 3 or 4 A380s on the gates at a time, they would need well over 100 folks just to clean those beasts. I figure at least a 3hr or more turn around time for just one plane.