Debt Load

Hatu

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
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MIA
FORT WORTH, Texas, Jan 25 (Reuters) - American Airlines' first option for using cash flow will be to start paying down its $20 billion debt burden, its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.
American Airlines' parent AMR Corp. (AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) aims to pay down $1.2 billion of debt this year, leaving it with a still substantial $19 billion load, James Beer told reporters at a media presentation.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompa...25364310_newsml

$20 billion and $19 billion are substantial but a lot less than the $25-$27 billion I had been reading was the debt of AMR.
UAL is about to come out of bankruptcy and USA Today reports that their post-bankruptcy debt will still be $17.6 billion. I know they have greatly cut their costs and abandoned their pension obligations as well as cutting alot of their previous $30 billion debt but that is a much heavier post-bankruptcy debt than I thought they would have had.
 
FORT WORTH, Texas, Jan 25 (Reuters) - American Airlines' first option for using cash flow will be to start paying down its $20 billion debt burden, its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.
American Airlines' parent AMR Corp. (AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) aims to pay down $1.2 billion of debt this year, leaving it with a still substantial $19 billion load, James Beer told reporters at a media presentation.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompa...25364310_newsml

$20 billion and $19 billion are substantial but a lot less than the $25-$27 billion I had been reading was the debt of AMR.


Who cares what the debt is? Sure they have $20 billion in debt but what do they have in assetts and what is their annual revenue? Whats really important is their ability to service the debt. With around $20 billion in annual revenue they are a lot better off than most homeowners.

Unlike you and I corporations are immortal, they dont have to prepare themselves for retirement where they will no longer have earnings. So corporations can carry high debt loads forever, in fact most do, thats how banks make their money.

When I bought my home I borrowed $100k, but the total amount I owed was close to $300K. So I could fairly claim that I owed out 6 times my annual earnings and more than triple my net worth. AA is claiming they owe out what they bring in in a year, as opposed to my obligation where I owed out what I would make in 6 years. So they, in the worst of times, are six times better off than I was when I bought my home.

Why would a bank willingly lend me money under such dire financial circumstances? The fact is my mortgage broker was trying to get me to borrow an extra $50k, he said "Invest it, you can probably do better than the 8% its going to cost you". Banks do this because they dont make money by sitting on it, in fact it costs them money. Banks make money by lending it out and collecting interest.

So the next time you hear about how much they owe, just yawn, its just a number meant to impress. It doesnt mean much unless you factor in all the other numbers. Just as making early payments on you mortgage can greatly reduce your debt the same goes for AA. As the article states AA plans to eliminate $1.2 billion, that does not mean they will be writing a check for $1.2 billion, they may only be writing a check for a few hundred million and because they are paying it off early eliminating $1.2 billion in debt. Who knows,if they were to pay off the entire debt tomorrow it might only cost them $8 or $9billion, or less.
The fact is we are only given a limited amount of information, certainly not enough to draw a sound conclusion as to the true financial state of the company.
 
What really matters is not the total amount owed; what matters is whether a company has sufficient cash flow to service the debt and to pay off principal as it matures (or refinance at favorable rates). Favorable interest rates and available cash flow are what really matter.

AA's total debt is large, but manageable. AA has been cash flow positive for 30 months now, thanks in large part to the massive concessions enacted in 2003.

Same thing with pension obligations. AA's underfunding is large, but manageable. UA got so far behind that it couldn't catch up, but AA has easily met its annual contribution obligations. It looks like NW and DL also allowed themselves to get so far behind that they won't be able to catch up, and will thus cancel their plans.

One correction, Mr Owens: AA will indeed have to pay off or refinance $1.2 billion of principal this year. But that shouldn't be a problem, based on AA's cash position.
 
yes, but none of the legacies are paying anywhere near $2B a year in debt service - even adjusted for their size. AA is at a disadvantage to its legacy peers and it's only going to get worse as they get their costs down further.
 
yes, but none of the legacies are paying anywhere near $2B a year in debt service - even adjusted for their size. AA is at a disadvantage to its legacy peers and it's only going to get worse as they get their costs down further.

I agree with the first sentence but not the remainder; none of the legacies are paying anywhere near $2 billion in debt service, and neither is AA. Last year, AMR paid $957 million in interest, offset by $149 million of interest income and $65 million of capitalized interest. Far less than $1 billion, nowhere near $2 billion.

http://www.shareholder.com/aa/releaseDetai...eleaseID=184666

AMR's interest expense is comparable to CO and UA, adjusted for size (revenue). CO actually has some big cash demands this year, and it is almost out of XJET stock with which to satisfy its pension contributions. It has nearly as much debt maturing this year as AA. No idea what interest payments will be at NW or DL going forward.

AA's at a cost disadvantage? Looking over the year-end results, I don't see it.
 
yes, but none of the legacies are paying anywhere near $2B a year in debt service - even adjusted for their size. AA is at a disadvantage to its legacy peers and it's only going to get worse as they get their costs down further.

Oh, spare me... I haven't seen specifics yet, but it appears that UAUA wound up exiting bankruptcy with more debt than they entered with... The bulk of their pre-petition debt was secured (thus mostly protected in bankruptcy), plus they've had to mortgage every other free asset for their exit financing.

Don't really care about DAL and NWAC, but I suspect they're in pretty much the same position.

And, while AMR may be paying more in debt service right now, I will guarantee that the terms for AMR are years more favorable than the loan shark rates that UAL wound up with, and what NWAC and DAL are likely to get if interest rates climb in the post-Greenspan Fed.
 
One thing I would like to know is why is AMR now carrying a reported $4 billion in cash?

If they owe out $20 billion then that $4 billion is basically borrowed money, money they are paying interest on.

Would you go the bank and borrow $250K, and pay interest on it, just for the hell of it, to cover possible future expenses or to have cash on hand in case some opportunity came your way? Would you be willing to fork over $25,000 in interest a year just to carry all that extra cash?

Back in 2003 the company claimed that due to loan covenants with the lenders they had to keep $1 billion in cash, or they were technically bankrupt. We were told that the company had to agree to such covenants in order to get favorable rates. But, in a way such a covenent means that the borrower has to borrow more than they otherwise would need, so in effect for the borrower its like charging a higher interest rate, the interest costs are higher because of the bigger principle despite a lower rate.The borrower has to pay interest on money they cant use.

Lets say you go to the bank for a loan. You want to make a capital improvement that will cost $100k. The bank says we can lend you $100k at 10% or we can lend you $200K at 8% but in order to qualify for the 8% you have to keep $100k as cash at all times. Is that a good deal? No, because the 8% on 200k will cost you $16,000 a year in intrest vs $10000 for the $100k at 10%.

However lets say that you need to show that you are financially strapped, now the deal works out well. You can borrow more than is needed, pay intrest on that money and claim that because you agreed to these rediculous "covenants" that you are "technically broke".

In 2003 AMR claimed that they were about to declare bankruptcy because they were nearing the point of "only" having $1,000,000,000 cash on hand. They claimed that the banks would recall their loans and possibly force AA to liquidate if their cash slipped below $1,000,000,000. In retrospect does anyone really believe that?

If AMR is sitting on $4 billion in cash we have to ask "How much is that $4 billion costing the company and how much of their loss last year was due to interest they were paying on this $4 billion? If you figure they are paying 10%APR to service that money then you can figure that they paid out a minimum of $400 million just to sit on extra cash. However by sitting on that money and posting a loss, a loss that they would not have if they were not paying out so much to service debt that they dont need its possible that AA could have posted a profit, but, the banks would not have made as much money off AA as they did and AA would no longer have the crisis thats driving their unions to trip over themselves trying to give the company even more concessions though the JLT scam.
 
"Last year, AMR paid $957 million in interest,"

So 5% of AMRs revenues were simply to service debt.


Now we know why the banks keep money losing airlines in business. The airlines may post a loss, and the value of the stock the bank owns may go down but in the meantime they are making billions on interest payments and they dont lose a dime on the stock unless the company liquidates or they unload it. So they cash in though interest payments now, then hit a grand slam when the stock rebounds. In the meantime we have taken a permanent loss through lowered wages and less benifits.

I still say that we should have shut the industry down the minute a judge abrogated any contract.

Over the last three years the banks, leasing companies and others have made billions off our labor.If we had threatened to shut the industry down they would have been looking at billions in losses. Instead WE are the only ones that have really lost.

Now we see AMR borrowing more and more, paying almost $1billion in interest last year!!! More than half the $1.8 billion in concessions the union workers gave are simply going towards interest payments to the banks.
 
I just wonder if having an internet bulletin board or blog to vent frustrations out, is going to prevent the much needed revolution in not only the industry but the country from taking place?
 
"If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves."

Winston Churchill
 
One thing I would like to know is why is AMR now carrying a reported $4 billion in cash?

AA is carrying $4.3 billion in total cash, of which about $500 million is restricted cash, so AA is actually carrying about $3.8 billion of unrestricted cash. Since the bank loan still requires that AA hold a billion of unrestricted cash, only $2.8 billion of that is "excess" under your definition.

Why hold all that cash? One reason is that AA is not certain that it could re-borrow it if it paid some of the debt off.

Other reasons for holding $2.8 billion of cash over the minimum $1 billion of unrestricted cash include a contingency fund with which to buy NW or certain key NW assets if they become available (NH/BBs understands this); the need to contribute $250 million to the pension plans this year; the need to repay about $1.2 billion of maturing debt this year, among others. Fuel will probably cost a billion more this year than last year, so maybe being cash-rich right now is not so bad as you make it out to be.

If they owe out $20 billion then that $4 billion is basically borrowed money, money they are paying interest on.

Would you go the bank and borrow $250K, and pay interest on it, just for the hell of it, to cover possible future expenses or to have cash on hand in case some opportunity came your way? Would you be willing to fork over $25,000 in interest a year just to carry all that extra cash?

Yep, it's borrowed money. If you ran a business as large as AA, you might understand why it's a good thing to have a couple billion of cash on hand. If I ran AA, I might think it was very worthwhile to hold that cash.

Back in 2003 the company claimed that due to loan covenants with the lenders they had to keep $1 billion in cash, or they were technically bankrupt. We were told that the company had to agree to such covenants in order to get favorable rates. But, in a way such a covenent means that the borrower has to borrow more than they otherwise would need, so in effect for the borrower its like charging a higher interest rate, the interest costs are higher because of the bigger principle despite a lower rate.The borrower has to pay interest on money they cant use.

Lets say you go to the bank for a loan. You want to make a capital improvement that will cost $100k. The bank says we can lend you $100k at 10% or we can lend you $200K at 8% but in order to qualify for the 8% you have to keep $100k as cash at all times. Is that a good deal? No, because the 8% on 200k will cost you $16,000 a year in intrest vs $10000 for the $100k at 10%.

Sounds like you should take it up with the banks - in 2003, the banks held all the cards; AA certainly didn't. AA was begging the banks for more money and the banks were able to dictate the terms. Sorta like when a successful union goes on strike against a profitable company and the company is pretty much forced to give in.

However lets say that you need to show that you are financially strapped, now the deal works out well. You can borrow more than is needed, pay intrest on that money and claim that because you agreed to these rediculous "covenants" that you are "technically broke".

In 2003 AMR claimed that they were about to declare bankruptcy because they were nearing the point of "only" having $1,000,000,000 cash on hand. They claimed that the banks would recall their loans and possibly force AA to liquidate if their cash slipped below $1,000,000,000. In retrospect does anyone really believe that?

Yes, unless you are a conspiracy theorist and actually believe that AA's 2003 financial problems were just a well-orchestrated ruse to bust your union. And maybe you do believe that. I don't. The banks didn't threaten to liquidate AA if it defaulted, but it would have caused a Ch 11 filing. UAL's professional fees (lawyers, accountants, consultants and other parasites) will cost it about $600 million for their 3+ year stay in bankruptcy. AA saved that money by charting the "pay your bills and don't renege on your pensions" route.

If AMR is sitting on $4 billion in cash we have to ask "How much is that $4 billion costing the company and how much of their loss last year was due to interest they were paying on this $4 billion? If you figure they are paying 10%APR to service that money then you can figure that they paid out a minimum of $400 million just to sit on extra cash. However by sitting on that money and posting a loss, a loss that they would not have if they were not paying out so much to service debt that they dont need its possible that AA could have posted a profit, but, the banks would not have made as much money off AA as they did and AA would no longer have the crisis thats driving their unions to trip over themselves trying to give the company even more concessions though the JLT scam.

$400 million of interest on $4 billion? Where did you come up with that? AMR paid $957 million on its entire debt load of something like $20 billion last year - that's less than 5%. So why do you then make the outlandish assertion that AA paid 10% or so on its cash on hand?

Another thing - you ignored the $157 million of interest income earned by AA last year. Although you and me tend to pay high rates when we borrow and tend to receive very low rates when we deposit money, big businesses have a knack for earning as much (or nearly as much) interest on their cash as they pay on their debt. Sometimes, it's even possible to earn more interest on the cash as paid on the debt. Recently, that has been the case, with short term rates exceeding long-term rates.

"Last year, AMR paid $957 million in interest,"

So 5% of AMRs revenues were simply to service debt.

No, AA earned $149 million of interest income and also recorded $65 million of capitalized interest. The net borrowing costs were thus $743 million. That's 3.6% of its revenue of $20.7 billion. BFD.

I still say that we should have shut the industry down the minute a judge abrogated any contract.

Over the last three years the banks, leasing companies and others have made billions off our labor.If we had threatened to shut the industry down they would have been looking at billions in losses. Instead WE are the only ones that have really lost.

Good luck with that. Let us know the "industry wide shutdown" works out. Wouldas, couldas and shouldas don't feed families, and most workers know that.

Now we see AMR borrowing more and more, paying almost $1billion in interest last year!!! More than half the $1.8 billion in concessions the union workers gave are simply going towards interest payments to the banks.

$743 million in net borrowing costs last year, not almost a billion. I understand that the represented workers contend (perhaps correctly) that their concessions were grossly undervalued by AA, but let's stick to the official number for the concessions: $1.6 billion from the unions and $200 million from management and nonrepresented employees.

Given that you used to be the Treasurer for your union local, perhaps you should parlay that expertise and experience and apply for the job of CFO of AMR; you know, the position currently held by James Beer.
 
How did I know this post would get you going?

'FWAAA'
AA is carrying $4.3 billion in total cash, of which about $500 million is restricted cash, so AA is actually carrying about $3.8 billion of unrestricted cash. Since the bank loan still requires that AA hold a billion of unrestricted cash, only $2.8 billion of that is "excess" under your definition.


No thats under YOUR definition. Under my definition of excess cash its cash not needed for the operation. $1 billion in cash to satisfy a bank loan is excess cash as far as I'm concerned, along with the other $2.8 billion. Do you want to quibble about the $200,000,000?


Why hold all that cash? One reason is that AA is not certain that it could re-borrow it if it paid some of the debt off.

Uncertainty is another word for risk, which is the business of business. Its absurd to think that AMR would have a hard time getting needed capital when you consider that USAIR, UAL and others seem to be getting what they need, after going BK.

Other reasons for holding $2.8 billion of cash over the minimum $1 billion of unrestricted cash include a contingency fund with which to buy NW or certain key NW assets if they become available (NH/BBs understands this); the need to contribute $250 million to the pension plans this year; the need to repay about $1.2 billion of maturing debt this year, among others.

Why not just get the loan if the opportunity comes up like everyone else does? By the way I already mentioned that.

Fuel will probably cost a billion more this year than last year, so maybe being cash-rich right now is not so bad as you make it out to be.

Then raise the price of tickets or better yet simply add a "fuel surcharge", this way they can say the price is the same, like everyone else does.

Yep, it's borrowed money. If you ran a business as large as AA, you might understand why it's a good thing to have a couple billion of cash on hand.

Not if its costing a couple of hundred million a year and means the difference between posting a profit or a loss.

If I ran AA, I might think it was very worthwhile to hold that cash.

Why? Unless of course you were using the losses to gain long term concessions that would leave you very profitable in the future.

Sounds like you should take it up with the banks - in 2003, the banks held all the cards;

The banks need to lend money, if they sit on it there is a cost factor for them too, it might only be as low as 1.5% but it still costs them. Remember my mortgage example? The banks want to lend money. How come AA is the only carrier, especially when you consider the fact, as you even admit, that financially they are one of the strongest, that has to hold such a large amount of untouchable, unuseable cash? I'll admit its a great deal for the Bank, AMR sits on a billion and pays the bank interest on it, if the bank should need the money they could simply say to AMR that they no longer need to have that extra billion on hand and AMR could boast about how they lowered their debt.

AA certainly didn't. AA was begging the banks for more money and the banks were able to dictate the terms.

AMR was begging? So the bank says "We dont really want to lend you the money you need but if we do decide to lend you anything you have to borrow an extra billion?

Sorta like when a successful union goes on strike against a profitable company and the company is pretty much forced to give in.

Not really. The relationship between the banks and the airlines is different than the relationship between management and the employees. Its comparatively very easy for AA to go to another bank or find some other means of raising needed capital. Its much more difficult for companies to replace their entire workforce and for the workforce to all change jobs. Switching business from Citibank to Commerce is a lot eaiser than replacing your workforce or changing jobs.

Yes, unless you are a conspiracy theorist and actually believe that AA's 2003 financial problems were just a well-orchestrated ruse to bust your union. And maybe you do believe that. I don't. The banks didn't threaten to liquidate AA if it defaulted, but it would have caused a Ch 11 filing.

Well here we go again. The downturn was real, however instead of taking measures to mitigate its effects the airlines sought to exploit it.

Sure they publicized all their so called "cost saving initiatives" but a closer look reveals that they really didnt do much. On the one hand we see where companies like AMR will tout their "one engine taxis" to save fuel but they leave out how arriving aircraft sit on the ground for hours waiting for a gate because they dont have the manpower to load and unload the planes. One engine burns between 600 to 1100 lbs of fuel per hour. So one engine running for one hour would pay two ramp workers for eight hours, or eight part timers for four hours. Thats only the fuel costs, of one airplane, you also have to add in the cost of the delay as far as cancellations, vouchers, crew costs etc.

Mechanics who go out to taxi planes from the hangar to the terminal find 10,000 lbs of fuel in the right tank and 2000 in the left, it certainly didnt fly in like that, 8000lbs burned in the APU, multiply that by 20 airplanes thats 22,850 gallons of fuel times $2/gallon, $45,700 a night, and thats only one station. Thats more than the entire payroll for maintenance at JFK.

So what I'm saying is the airlines went into this downturn with the objective of exploiting it to crush us. Call it what you like.

UAL's professional fees (lawyers, accountants, consultants and other parasites) will cost it about $600 million for their 3+ year stay in bankruptcy. AA saved that money by charting the "pay your bills and don't renege on your pensions" route.

No they saved it by reducing pay and benifits below those of even the LCCs like SWA and by paying out 900 million, each year or $2.7 billion over the three years, in interest. So in order to avoid paying the "parasites" $600 million they paid out $2.7 billion in intrest.

$400 million of interest on $4 billion? Where did you come up with that?

I figured a 10% intrest rate would be conservative, are business rates typically much lower?

AMR paid $957 million on its entire debt load of something like $20 billion last year - that's less than 5%. So why do you then make the outlandish assertion that AA paid 10% or so on its cash on hand?


I meant that AMR paid out 5% of their total revenue to service debt.

Debt load? Define what you mean by debt load. Do you mean that if AMR were to decide to pay off all the money it borrowed it would have to come up with $20 billion? Or are you claiming that the Interest that AMR is paying on its debt is lower than the rates at which the Fed lends money to the banks. If AMR only paid $900 million for $20 billion in loans they are getting a great deal, 4.5%. That doesnt sound like the banks were holding all the cards. When I got 8% for my mortgage of $100,000 I thought I got a great deal, and the bank had almost zero risk because the house was worth over $150,000 at the time.



Another thing - you ignored the $157 million of interest income earned by AA last year. Although you and me tend to pay high rates when we borrow and tend to receive very low rates when we deposit money, big businesses have a knack for earning as much (or nearly as much) interest on their cash as they pay on their debt.

And how much of that $157 million was earned off funds that were for the pension? Paying out $900 million to earn $157 million is not a good deal. Sitting on $1 billion in cash that you cant use is not a good deal.

Sometimes, it's even possible to earn more interest on the cash as paid on the debt. Recently, that has been the case, with short term rates exceeding long-term rates.

More BS. AA paid out over $900 million in interest last year. Nearly $1billion in interest and posted a loss for the year. The banks made over $1billion thanks to AAs operations but the employees are being told they have to put out more because the company is losing money. Nearly $1 billion in interest to the banks, much of that interest being paid on excess cash being carried by the company for what ifs and maybes.

No, AA earned $149 million of interest income and also recorded $65 million of capitalized interest. The net borrowing costs were thus $743 million. That's 3.6% of its revenue of $20.7 billion. BFD.
Good luck with that. Let us know the "industry wide shutdown" works out. Wouldas, couldas and shouldas don't feed families, and most workers know that.

Neither do pay cuts.The fact is this system would be kept running but if we stick together and fight back then we would get a better deal. What we have now is a job that only partially feeds our families and generates billions in profits for the banks, lessors, airports, oil companies etc. The same institutions that own the money losing airlines make huge profits directly through the business they do with the airlines, the less we get the more they can get, so it really doesnt matter if the airlines lose money, it only matters that they keep flying and generating that cash flow that ends up in their pockets.If we shut it down they all lose, at the very least we wouldnt be the only ones losing.


$743 million in net borrowing costs last year, not almost a billion. I understand that the represented workers contend (perhaps correctly) that their concessions were grossly undervalued by AA, but let's stick to the official number for the concessions: $1.6 billion from the unions and $200 million from management and nonrepresented employees.

You use net, I'll use gross. You dont mind citing gross when you say how much we are paid. The fact is that from where I'm sitting even $743 million is a lot closer to a billion than I'll ever see.

Given that you used to be the Treasurer for your union local, perhaps you should parlay that expertise and experience and apply for the job of CFO of AMR; you know, the position currently held by James Beer.

Whats the matter cant come up with anything substantial to debate so you resort to petty attacks? Why not attack what I said about having to sit on $1billion in cash?
 
Lets go back to the title of this thread.

Debt Load.

This is a term that we see the company and FWAAA throwing out.

What exactly is debt load? Is it the principle that you borrowed? NO, its the amount, usually in a percentage, of how much of your income is used to pay bills, in this case debt. In reality they are misusing the term. This misuse inflates our perception of what AMR actually borrowed to stay afloat. A debt load of $20 billion does not mean that AMR borrowed $20 billion. It means that if AMR only makes their minimum periodic payments over the life of the loans they have they will pay out $20 billion. What difference does that make? A BIG ONE!!!

Lets say you charge a TV on your credit card and only make the minimum payments. That $500 TV could turn into a $3000 TV. You could turn around and claim that you have a $3000 debt load on that credit card because of the $500 TV. But would you think thats honest? Technically you are not lying but you are misleading.


Lets go back to my mortgage example. I borrowed $100,000. My monthly debt load was $733.34. My gross salary was around $55,000 a year or $4583 a month. However my "debt load" over the life of the loan was $264,000. So if we compare my debt load to my annual gross salary it was $4.8 to $1



AMR is claiming they have a "debt load" of $20 billion. Ok But AMR has an annual revenue of $20 billion. So if we compare their total debt load to their annual revenue we come out with a ratio of $1 to $1.

If I surived a negative $4.8 to a positive $1 total debt load to salary ratio then how bad off can AMR be with a $1 to $1 total debt load to annual revenue ratio?

Terms such as "debt load" are one of the reasons why we cant trust management or our unions who go around repeating these figures. They are misleading. We see "debt" and think one thing, however the added term "load" changes the definion.
 
On the one hand we see where companies like AMR will tout their "one engine taxis" to save fuel but they leave out how arriving aircraft sit on the ground for hours waiting for a gate because they dont have the manpower to load and unload the planes. One engine burns between 600 to 1100 lbs of fuel per hour. So one engine running for one hour would pay two ramp workers for eight hours, or eight part timers for four hours. Thats only the fuel costs, of one airplane, you also have to add in the cost of the delay as
far as cancellations, vouchers, crew costs etc.

Well, perhaps you haven't heard about it yet, but starting with the April schedule, something's finally being done about the arrival issue. AA has been testing a new way of staggering arrivals and departures in STL since November, and arrival holds virtually disappeared. With the new method of scheduling, bag mishandlings are down, and departure delays have shrunk as well.

Mechanics who go out to taxi planes from the hangar to the terminal find 10,000 lbs of fuel in the right tank and 2000 in the left, it certainly didnt fly in like that, 8000lbs burned in the APU, multiply that by 20 airplanes thats 22,850 gallons of fuel times $2/gallon, $45,700 a night, and thats only one station. Thats more than the entire payroll for maintenance at JFK.

That's just sheer laziness on the part of the FSC's and the CSM's. It only takes about a minute for a FSC to plug in the ground power unit, and a few seconds for the CSM to check that it was done...
 
FWAAA is right, as he/she often is. My assertion of AA's $2B/yr debt payments is about 2X reality; so thanks for the BS check.

Cash is king, esp. in the airline industry where there seems to be a new surprise behind every season. While you all still resent the cuts you took in May 2003 (is that the correct year?), it was what was necessary to turn AMR around. Timing was everything in AA's turnAAround plan and it worked. DL was about a year late getting started and it cost them. NW was about 2 years late. So while the pay cuts hurt, the reality is you probably won't have to take a whole lot (if any) more because AA did what needed to be done early enoough.

While $4B is alot of cash to keep on hand considering it is borrowed, note that DL's cash run was what sent it to bankruptcy - not its debt load and not its costs because DL's CASM was similar to AA's when DL filed. DL had to cough up about $1B in cash for credit card holdbacks this past summer and they had never had that kind of cash drain before (DL was the only major airline that didn't have a holdback requirement by its credit card processors). And NW had $2B+ cash a little over a year ago and you see how fast it went. Given the instability of the environment, the uncertainty of whether there will be any more lines of credit, and the ability of other airlines to cut costs in bankruptcy, it certainly does make sense for AMR to hold lots of cash until the industry stabilizes - if that's ever possible. Yes, mergers and acquisitions are possible but I doubt if AMR would use much cash for that purpose unless there is a pretty good indication that the revenue and cost picture will stabilize.

Debt load is real, however. Compare AMR's debt service requirements to Southwest or other low fare carriers. AMR spends a much higher percentage of its revenue on debt service than those carriers and that inhibits AA's ability to grow its business. As I've said before, UA has not done much to reduce its debt load but they have rearranged the payments. I expect that part of the reason UA's Tilton is pushing for ownership requirement changes because he knows that UA's financial future is not stable - their costs aren't low enough and they still have lots of debt to service. In my opinion, UA will likely have to go through another BK within 5 years and it will be a lot harder to cuts costs since the greatest opportunity is from employees and they are already fairly low paid or outsourced - unless you start outsourcing flying jobs ala NW's plan. Tilton has probably done as good of a job in BK as possible but I think it will be shown to be insufficient.

I think alot of people underestimate DL's ability to turn itself around. With the exception of the 6 year run of DL's Mullin era, DL and AA have historically been the two best run airlines from a financial perspective. AA has been better at generating revenue but DL has done a better job of controlling and cutting costs. I think DL will emerge from bankruptcy having been able to erase Mullins' impact on the balance sheet (DL had $4B in unsecured debt going into BK - the highest level in the industry) and will be a much leaner, more revenue focused company. DL will have lower costs than AA and I think that is precisely what scares Arpey. And DL is dead set on invading AA's key revenue generating markets including NYC, the NE transcons, and London. There is little that's stopping the first and I believe the US and EU will sign an open skies agreement that will allow DL into LHR and they will pay what it takes to get at least a couple key routes into LHR.

I have always had a great deal of respect for AA but think that AA and DL will be the two long-term survivors in the US industry. I don't think the US government will open the door to foreign ownership until they believe US carriers cannot acquire the assets of failing carriers. The US-HP merger shows there are people that will invest in the airline industry if they believe a company's management is capable of running a solid company. That's why I believe consolidation in the industry will be driven by investors' assessment of management abilities at a company rather than what assets a company does or does not have.

On that basis, I could see the scenario where AA is able to buy NW's Pacific assets (all of them) but only if NW is unable to restructure. However, I believe they will restructure during this bankruptcy but the question is whether they drop so far beyond competitively because of their shortage of aircraft and the encroachment of competitors (NW has little ability to grow its revenue right now - unlike DL and, to a lesser extent, UA). However, I don't think NW will fail on its own, if it does at all. If it NW fails, UA likely will too and maybe go first. If that is the case, DL could end up getting a chance to acquire UA, AA could acquire NW, and CO could pick up the duplicated assets in the industry (such as the duplicate AA/NW NRT routes and associated slots) and then merge with Alaska and remain as an independent carrier.

Whether by acquisition or internal growth, AA will have a major presence in Asia and DL will be their competitor. Perhaps Arpey's unwillingness to grow Asia much now is because he is counting on being able to acquire a position in Asia cheaper than he can grow it.