Delta's Still In Play

NYCDelta

Senior
Dec 12, 2006
402
70
Chicago, IL
This from FORBES.COM this morning. Now before anyone says "See! Delta can't make it on their own!", please note the area in BOLD type:


Delta's Still In Play
Mark Tatge 02.01.07, 6:00 AM ET

CHICAGO - US Airways Group CEO Doug Parker dropped his hostile $9.8 billion bid to buy Delta Air Lines Wednesday.

The problem is, Parker was a little ahead of his time. Delta's creditors wouldn't cooperate.

But you heard it here first: Delta will be bought or merged with another airline once it emerges from bankruptcy, fueling the fires of industry consolidation.

Why? Delta simply can't make it on its own, despite assertions by Delta's CEO Gerald Grinstein that the carrier is better off a standalone.

Even with the lower cost structure that bankruptcy will afford the airline, the carrier's route structure is much too parochial.

Parker knows this, which is why he went after the airline. Remember Parker is the guy who did something everybody said couldn’t be done--he smooshed together America West (nyse: LCC - news - people ) and US Airways.

The name of the game in the airline industry is scale, getting clout nationally and internationally.

Without scale, there won't be enough passenger growth to support five or six large airlines. Right now, everyone is playing a costly market share game. That's not good for profits.

It could take three to five years for this scenario to play itself. There will be only a few survivors. All will have national and international route systems.

The three closest players that have a model resembling this strategy are: Southwest Airlines (nyse: LUV - news - people ), American and United (nasdaq: UAUA - news - people ).

But even those carriers are undergoing changes.

United CEO Glenn Tilton has expressed interest in merging with a competitor. Southwest has no international routes to speak of. The airline wants to pick the bones of its competitors. And American, well, who knows. They might just end up getting bought if rules prohibiting foreign ownership are relaxed.

These changes have been nearly 25 years coming. Delta, much like American and United, is a holdover from the days of when the airline industry was regulated in the 1970s. A strict system of government controlled prices and routes existed before deregulation.

What has emerged since deregulation is an oligopoly with limited price competition. Most of the major carriers control pricing within certain regions (think American in Dallas-Fort Worth, Delta in Salt Lake City and Northwest in Minneapolis). This is because certain airlines controlled most of the gates in those cities.

Delta's monopoly was the southeastern U.S., with its giant Atlanta hub. Sure, there were low-fare carriers that surfaced. But they were almost always beaten back by slashing fares and increasing frequency.

The runways are littered with wreckage of carriers like People Express, Braniff and Eastern. Only Southwest, which dates back to the 1970s, has survived.

This beat-'em-by-slashing-prices strategy is currently being replayed by American Airlines (nyse: AMR - news - people ) on its lucrative New York-to-Chicago routes. JetBlue (nasdaq: JBLU - news - people ) announced service to Chicago's O'Hare from New York's JFK, and American frequent fliers who once paid $350 to $599 round-trip can now fly roundtrip to LaGuardia for $128.

But these days are numbered.

Why? The airline industry is a mature business, growing at roughly the rate of GDP. Future growth is going to come internationally, not domestically. And that means everybody is going to have to get a lot bigger.

Parker gets this. So do Tilton and a number of other airline chief executives. The question is how long it is going to take creditors to realize the same thing and stop lending money to bankrupt airlines.
 
WorldTraveler? Delta777?

Oooh...........another "expert"(who thought the US/DL merger was a slam dunk) with egg on his face trying to save face........Isn't DL growing internationally? How big is US international ops? Going by this "expert" opine who should be worried?
 
Oooh...........another "expert"(who thought the US/DL merger was a slam dunk) with egg on his face trying to save face........Isn't DL growing internationally? How big is US international ops? Going by this "expert" opine who should be worried?
Expert...No! I do know this; in the end the winner is not the one with the most International Routes...the winner is the one that makes the most money! I seem to remember that from Secreterial School.
 
The one who wins is the company that has created the most value for its owners - which pretty well translates into the most profits - and who has the broadest route structure.

DL still has 30 deployable international aircraft available for its use between 2007 and 2010 counting the 764s that have not yet been reconfigured, the used 757s it is acquiring, and the 777LRs it is buying. DL will have a very impressive route system in a few years.

and DL's business case is for very aggressive revenue growth and profits. Given the speed and magnitude of DL's turnaround to date along with its industry segment leading costs and balance sheet, I have no doubt they will be in the top tier among US airlines - and that will directly translate into DL's ability to become an acquirer when consolidation does make sense.

You can read more about DL's Plan of Reorg on delta.com under speeches and presentations.
 
Of course DL is still in play. The whole damn industry is in play. If you listen to Grinstein you will have heard him say he has no problem with mergers. In fact he came to DL in the Western merger that he helped to put together. He also stated that it is the DL plan to come out of BK STAND ALONE. Once that happens I would not be surprised to see DL bid to make a merger with someone.

As far as a "winner." Sorry but if my company makes more than yours and I am paid less with no pension..........................figure it out yourself.
 
The one who wins is the company that has created the most value for its owners - which pretty well translates into the most profits - and who has the broadest route structure.

DL still has 30 deployable international aircraft available for its use between 2007 and 2010 counting the 764s that have not yet been reconfigured, the used 757s it is acquiring, and the 777LRs it is buying. DL will have a very impressive route system in a few years.

and DL's business case is for very aggressive revenue growth and profits. Given the speed and magnitude of DL's turnaround to date along with its industry segment leading costs and balance sheet, I have no doubt they will be in the top tier among US airlines - and that will directly translate into DL's ability to become an acquirer when consolidation does make sense.

You can read more about DL's Plan of Reorg on delta.com under speeches and presentations.

hey! How much is that stuff you smokin.
 
There is a provision in DL's POR - including the one just released today that prohibits the transfer of new DL stock if it involves more than 5% of the outstanding stock in order to protect NOLs (tax assets) unless the BOD determines losing the tax aassets is worth it. Given that IRS laws apply equally to all carriers, it is quite likely that no consolidation will happen until each of the carriers uses up a substantial portion of their NOLs.

2-3 years of performance outside of BK will be more than enough to see who the winners will be.

I fully expect DL will come out as a survivor and acquirer in industry consolidation.

I'll have to come back to post for the occassion of DL's acquisition of XX even if I post nothing else between now and then - but it would so disappoint NHBB.
 
There is a provision in DL's POR - including the one just released today that prohibits the transfer of new DL stock if it involves more than 5% of the outstanding stock in order to protect NOLs (tax assets) unless the BOD determines losing the tax aassets is worth it. Given that IRS laws apply equally to all carriers, it is quite likely that no consolidation will happen until each of the carriers uses up a substantial portion of their NOLs.

2-3 years of performance outside of BK will be more than enough to see who the winners will be.

I fully expect DL will come out as a survivor and acquirer in industry consolidation.

I'll have to come back to post for the occassion of DL's acquisition of XX even if I post nothing else between now and then - but it would so disappoint NHBB.


..........................................................

NOT so fast...WT,

I "could" see an out of BK DL, making a "move" on NW !

2 reasons,

First, GRINCHSTEIN hopefuuly learned that he DODGED a HUGE bullet, and that this industry consolidation business is for real.(Something I'm POSITIVE "Gordo" impressed upon him)

and 2nd,

For the right $$ Price, NW would "drop it's skirt" in a NY minute !!!!!!!

???

NH/BB's
 
NH/BB's
Why DL/NW? DL/NW wouldn't be a bad match, but NW has some serious management/labor relations to work out. Yes, I have heard some rumors that DL & NW might be keeping a merger in mind while they work through their respective reorganizations, but I see CO/NW as a much more likely pairing.
DL/UA would also be a good match and I understand UA did approach DL early on and offer a buy-out. Grinstein didn't slam the door in their face, just asked for time to get our house in order, same as he told DL while he was at WA.
 
You and NW will merge. UAL will buy LCC. AMR will merge with British Airways and CO will go it alone or seek a foreign partner.
 

Latest posts

Back
Top