Frontier moves to IAD in a big way

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WorldTraveler

WorldTraveler

Corn Field
Dec 5, 2003
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Looks like Frontier is taking on UA at IAD just as the AA/US slot divestiture will likely pull lots of domestic passengers from IAD to DCA to begin with.

Given that IAD is a heavily RJ hub and many of these markets are also RJ markets, any price pressure on UA's IAD operation is going to hurt even given the relatively low frequencies with which many of these routes will operate.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/frontier-airlines-bring-low-fares-150401795.html
 
WorldTraveler said:
Looks like Frontier is taking on UA at IAD just as the AA/US slot divestiture will likely pull lots of domestic passengers from IAD to DCA to begin with.

Given that IAD is a heavily RJ hub and many of these markets are also RJ markets, any price pressure on UA's IAD operation is going to hurt even given the relatively low frequencies with which many of these routes will operate.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/frontier-airlines-bring-low-fares-150401795.html
Click to expand...
 
DENVER, Colo., May 13, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via PRWEB - Dedicated to offering "Low Fares Done Right," Frontier Airlines today announced it will launch new ultra-low fare service at Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) with nonstop flights to 14 destinations and introductory fares as low as $15* each way. Beginning Aug. 19, the ultra-low cost airline will offer nonstop flights to Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Orlando, Fla. Minneapolis/St. Paul, and Tampa, Fla. Service to Chicago-O'Hare, Cincinnati, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Las Vegas, Memphis, Tenn., Fort Myers, Fla,, St. Louis, and the St. Augustine/Jacksonville, Fla. area begins Sept. 8.
 
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I didn't miss the pleuthora of DL hubs on their list... but ALL of the flights originate or terminate at IAD which is a UA hub. Also, in nearly all cases, DL is the larger carrier than UA in those markets and uses a higher percentage of mainline or large RJs which are better suited for competing with low fare carriers.

seeing IAD deteriorate into another attempt at an low fare carrier hub is not welcome news for anyone but UA is certainly going to be the most impacted.
 
 
This isn't something UA is doing. Regionals and Nationals is the right place for the discussion.
 
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it is yet another strategic challenge for UA in one of its hubs.

Feel free to discuss it where you wish. UA is and will be most negatively affected by this just as the RJ crisis - which has nothing to do with Frontier.

The regional carriers fly for the major carriers. The impact of the pilot shortage hits the legacy carriers.

UA, with a whopping 30% of its domestic ASMs produced by regional carriers, is by far the most impacted by the regional industry meltdown. DL is about 20%, AA is about 18%. DL has the largest fleet of large RJs and the smallest fleet of 50 seaters.

No one will remember what happened to the regional carriers. They will remember what happened to legacy carriers that couldn't defend their hubs from low fare competition and couldn't operate their schedules and lost hundreds of millions of revenue.

2014 will be one of the most critical years in redefining the airline industry, the regional pilot shortage is a driving reason, and UA is by far the most exposed to it.

BTW, DOT data for April 2014 is out and ExpressJet had the highest cancellation rate in the industry at just over 5% followed closely by American Eagle.
SkyWest, JetBlue, and American were all around 2%.
Southwest, Virgin America, and United were all around 1% with the rest of the carriers at/below a half percent.

yes, UA's IAD hub is vulnerable solely because of the RJ issue and having a low fare carrier drop in with low fares makes it even more vulnerable.

That is a UA issue to solve.
 
Are you so dense as to realize that F9 is a national carrier, along with VX and HA?...

It's amazing how your attention to detail misses the obvious so often.
 
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TTN has its benefits, the least of which is no meaningful competition to worry about. That won't be the case in IAD.

Zero name recognition, and they'll be the #3 carrier in many of those markets:

ATL (behind UA and DL)
CLT (behind UA and AA/US)
ORD (behind UA and AA)
CVG (behind UA and DL)
DTW (behind UA and DL)
FLL (no competition, BWI-FLL on NK)
RSW (no competition)
LAS (behind UA)
MEM (no competition)
MSP (behind UA and DL)
MCO (behind UA)
STL (behind UA)
UST (behind UA to JAX, AA DCA-JAX)
TPA (behind UA)

It's a risky move. With less than weekly service, maybe it will work for one departure a day, but it's still risky.
 
it appears you are discussing it in two places.

go for it.

I am more interested in the impact on UA. Frontier will continue to chase opportunities and I am far from certain they will succeed.

But whether they succeed or not doesn't mean there won't be harm done to UA which is least able to tolerate it.

UA's current schedule at IAD is flown 60% by 50 seat or smaller regional jets or turboprops.

UA's US N. America schedule is flown 54% by 50 seat or smaller regional jets or turboprops.

AA/US' combined N. America schedule has 36% of the flights operated by 50 seaters or turboprops.

DL's N. America schedule is 25% flown by 50 seaters or turboprops.

UA is vulnerable to the RJ crisis; IAD is even more vulnerable.

Frontier's action is an opportunistic move in a hub that UA might find increasingly difficult to defend.

Where Frontier flies is relatively insignificant to the rest of the industry. When UA has to start closing hubs as they undoubtedly will do even more of, the impact to the rest of the industry will be even more significant and the opportunities for other carriers will grow dramatically.
 
eolesen said:
TTN has its benefits, the least of which is no meaningful competition to worry about. That won't be the case in IAD.

Zero name recognition, and they'll be the #3 carrier in many of those markets:

ATL (behind UA and DL)
CLT (behind UA and AA/US)
ORD (behind UA and AA)
CVG (behind UA and DL)
DTW (behind UA and DL)
FLL (no competition, BWI-FLL on NK)
RSW (no competition)
LAS (behind UA)
MEM (no competition)
MSP (behind UA and DL)
MCO (behind UA)
STL (behind UA)
UST (behind UA to JAX, AA DCA-JAX)
TPA (behind UA)

It's a risky move. With less than weekly service, maybe it will work for one departure a day, but it's still risky.
Click to expand...
 
 
Weird that DEN is not on the list, they must be leaving that for UA and WN, which is too bad, at least with the name recognition in Denver they might be able to at least chase WN off it if they tried
 
AdAstraPerAspera said:
I tweeted at Brett Snyder, he said he's bullish... full blog to be posted Thursday.
Click to expand...
Brett and I had a conversation about it earlier (we've known each other for about 20 years). He certainly has more faith in the Allegiant ultra-low frequency model (e.g. 4x per week). Spirit has made it work in the shadows, so perhaps there's a chance for F9, but I don't expect UA to sit by and let it go unnoticed in two of their six hubs.
 
Uh, no. I'm only discussing F9's move in one pleace... the forum where it's appropriate to discuss F9.

Feel free to talk to yourself about UA's challenges...
 
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